Ambient pollen exposure and pollen allergy symptom severity in the EPOCHAL study.

BACKGROUND: Ambient pollen exposure causes nasal, ocular, and pulmonary symptoms in allergic individuals, but the shape of the exposure-response association is not well characterized. We evaluated this association and determined (1) whether symptom severity differs between subpopulations; (2) how the association changes over the course of the pollen season; and (3) which pollen exposure time lags affect symptoms. METHODS: Adult study participants (n = 396) repeatedly scored severity of nasal, ocular, and pulmonary allergic symptoms, resulting in three composite symptom scores. We calculated hourly individually relevant pollen exposure to seven allergenic plants (alder, ash, birch, hazel, grasses, mugwort, and ragweed) considering personal sensitization and exposure time lags of up to 96 h. We fitted generalized additive mixed models, with a random personal intercept, adjusting for weather and air pollution as potential time-varying confounders. RESULTS: We identified a clear nonlinear positive association between pollen exposure and ocular and nasal symptom severity in the pollen allergy group: Symptom severity increased steeply with increasing exposure initially, but attenuated beyond approximately 80 pollen/m3. We found no evidence of an exposure threshold, below which no symptoms occur. While recent pollen exposure in the last approximately 5 h affected symptoms most, associations lingered for up to 60 h. Grass pollen exposure (compared to tree pollen) and younger age (18-30 years, as opposed to 30-65 years) were both associated with higher nasal and ocular symptom severity. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of a threshold and attenuated dose-response curve may have implications for pollen warning systems, which may be revised to include multiday pollen concentrations in the future.

Employing zero-inflated beta distribution in an exposure-response analysis of TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor brepocitinib in patients with plaque psoriasis.

Brepocitinib is an oral selective dual TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor and based on its cytokine inhibition profile is expected to provide therapeutic benefit in the treatment of plaque psoriasis. Efficacy data from a completed Phase 2a study in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis were utilized to develop a population exposure-response model that can be employed to inform dose selection decisions for further clinical development. A modeling approach that employs the zero-inflated beta distribution was used to account for the bounded nature and distributional characteristics of the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) score data. The developed exposure-response model provided an adequate description of the observed PASI scores across all the treatment arms tested and across both the induction and maintenance dosing periods of the study. In addition, the developed model exhibited a good predictive capacity with regard to the derived responder metrics (e.g., 75%/90%/100% improvement in PASI score [PASI75/90/100]). Clinical trial simulations indicated that the induction/maintenance dosing paradigm explored in this study does not offer any advantages from an efficacy perspective and that doses of 10, 30, and 60 mg once-daily may be suitable candidates for clinical evaluation in subsequent Phase 2b studies.

Re-assessing human mortality risks attributed to PM2.5-mediated effects of agricultural ammonia.

How can and should epidemiologists and risk assessors assemble and present evidence for causation of mortality or morbidities by identified agents such as fine particulate matter or other air pollutants? As a motivating example, some scientists have warned recently that ammonia from the production of meat significantly increases human mortality rates in exposed populations by increasing the ambient concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in air. We reexamine the support for such conclusions, including quantitative calculations that attribute deaths to PM2.5 air pollution by applying associational results such as relative risks, odds ratios, or slope coefficients from regression models to predict the effects on mortality or morbidity of reducing PM2.5 exposures. Taking an outside perspective from the field of causal artificial intelligence (CAI), we conclude that these attribution calculations are methodologically unsound. They produce unreliable conclusions because they ignore an essential distinction between differences in outcomes observed at different levels of exposure and changes in outcomes caused by changing exposure. We find that multiple studies that have examined associations between changes over time in particulate exposure and mortality risk instead of differences in exposures and corresponding mortality risks have found no clear evidence that observed changes in exposure help to predict or explain subsequent changes in mortality risks. We conclude that there is no sound theoretical or empirical reason to believe that reducing ammonia emissions from farms has reduced or would reduce human mortality risks. More generally, applying CAI principles and methods can potentially improve current widespread practices of unsound causal inferences and policy-relevant causal claims that are made without the benefit of formal causal analysis in air pollution health effects research and in other areas of applied epidemiology and public health risk assessment.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Doravirine and Exposure-Response Analysis in Individuals with HIV-1.

Doravirine is a novel nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) infection. A population pharmacokinetic (PK) model was developed for doravirine using pooled data from densely sampled phase 1 trials and from sparsely sampled phase 2b and phase 3 trials evaluating doravirine administered orally as a single entity or as part of a fixed-dose combination of doravirine-lamivudine-tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. A one-compartment model with linear clearance from the central compartment adequately described the clinical PK of doravirine. While weight, age, and healthy versus HIV-1 status were identified as statistically significant covariates affecting doravirine PK, the magnitude of their effects was not clinically meaningful. Other intrinsic factors (gender, body mass index, race, ethnicity, and renal function) did not have statistically significant or clinically meaningful effects on doravirine PK. Individual exposure estimates for individuals in the phase 2b and 3 trials obtained from the final model were used for subsequent exposure-response analyses for virologic response (proportion of individuals achieving <50 copies/ml) and virologic failure. The exposure-response relationships between these efficacy endpoints and doravirine PK were generally flat over the range of exposures achieved for the 100 mg once-daily regimen in the phase 3 trials, with a minimal decrease in efficacy in individuals in the lowest 10th percentile of steady-state doravirine concentration at 24 h values. These findings support 100 mg once daily as the selected dose of doravirine, with no dose adjustment warranted for the studied intrinsic factors.

Cabozantinib exposure-response analyses of efficacy and safety in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

Cabozantinib, a multi-kinase inhibitor, is approved in the United States and European Union for treatment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma following prior sorafenib treatment. In the Phase III CELESTIAL trial, hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving cabozantinib showed longer overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) than those receiving placebo. The approved cabozantinib (Cabometyx®) dose is 60 mg once daily with allowable dose modifications to manage adverse events (AE). Time-to-event Cox proportional hazard exposure-response (ER) models were developed to characterize the relationship between predicted cabozantinib exposure and the likelihood of various efficacy and safety endpoints. The ER models were used to predict hazard ratios (HR) for efficacy and safety endpoints for starting doses of 60, 40, or 20 mg daily. Statistically significant relationships between cabozantinib exposure and efficacy and safety endpoints were observed. For efficacy endpoints, predicted HR were lower for OS and PFS at 40 and 60 mg relative to the 20 mg dose: HR for death (OS) are 0.84 (40 mg) and 0.70 (60 mg); HR for disease progression/death (PFS) are 0.73 (40 mg) and 0.62 (60 mg). For safety endpoints, predicted HR were lower for palmar-plantar erythrodysaesthesia (PPE), diarrhea, and hypertension at 20 or 40 mg relative to the 60 mg dose: HR for PPE are 0.31 (20 mg) and 0.66 (40 mg); HR for diarrhea are 0.61 (20 mg) and 0.86 (40 mg); HR for hypertension are 0.46 (20 mg) and 0.76 (40 mg). The rate of dose modifications was predicted to increase in patients with lower cabozantinib apparent clearance. OS and PFS showed the greatest benefit at the 60 mg dose. However, higher cabozantinib exposure was predicted to increase the likelihood of AE and subsequent dose reductions appeared to decrease these risks.

Impact of Phase 1 study design on estimation of QT interval prolongation risk using exposure-response analysis.

The International Council for Harmonisation (ICH) guidelines have been revised allowing for modeling of concentration-QT (C-QT) data from Phase I dose-escalation studies to be used as primary analysis for QT prolongation risk assessment of new drugs. This work compares three commonly used Phase I dose-escalation study designs regarding their efficiency to accurately identify drug effects on QT interval through C-QT modeling. Parallel group design and 4-period crossover designs with sequential or interleaving cohorts were evaluated. Clinical trial simulations were performed for each design and across different scenarios (e.g. different magnitudes of drug effect, QT variability), assuming a pre-specified linear mixed effect (LME) model for the relationship between drug concentration and change from baseline QT (ΔQT). Analyses suggest no systematic bias in either the predictions of placebo-adjusted ΔQT (ΔΔQT) or the LME model parameter estimates across all evaluated designs. Additionally, false negative rates remained similar and adequately controlled across all evaluated designs. However, compared to the crossover designs, the parallel design had significantly less power to correctly exclude a clinically significant QT effect, especially in the presence of substantial intercept inter-individual variability. In such cases, parallel design is associated with increased uncertainty around ΔΔQT prediction, mainly attributed to the uncertainty around the estimation of the treatment-specific intercept in the model. Throughout all the evaluated scenarios, the crossover design with interleaving cohorts had consistently the best performance characteristics. The results from this investigation will further facilitate informed decision-making during Phase I study design and the interpretation of the associated C-QT modeling output.

Effects of moxifloxacin on the proarrhythmic surrogate markers in healthy Filipino subjects: Exposure-response modeling using ECG data of thorough QT/QTc study.

Effects of moxifloxacin on QTc as well as proarrhythmic surrogate markers including J-Tpeakc, Tpeak-Tend and short-term variability (STV) of repolarization were examined by using both standard E14 time-based evaluation and exposure-response modeling. The study was conducted with a single-blind, randomized, single-dose, placebo-controlled and two-period cross-over design in healthy Filipino subjects. QT interval was corrected by Fridericia's formula (QTcF). In the E14 time-based evaluation of ECG data, the largest ΔΔQTcF with 90% confidence interval was 14.1 ms (11.2-16.9) with Cmax of 3.39 µg/mL at 3 h post-dose (n = 69; male: 35, female: 34), indicating a positive effect on the QTcF. Moxifloxacin significantly increased the ΔΔJ-Tpeakc and ΔΔTpeak-Tend, whereas the ΔΔSTV was not altered. Meanwhile in the exposure-response modeling of the same ECG data, the slope of moxifloxacin plasma concentration-ΔΔQTcF relationship was 4.84 ms per µg/mL and the predicted ΔΔQTcF with 90% confidence interval was 13.8 ms (13.1-15.1) at Cmax, also indicating a positive effect on the QTcF. Importantly, results in each proarrhythmic surrogate marker obtained by the exposure-response modeling also showed high similarity to those obtained by the E14 statistical evaluation. Thus, these results of moxifloxacin may become a guide to estimate proarrhythmic potential of new chemical entities.

A comprehensive evaluation of exposure-response relationships in clinical trials: application to support guselkumab dose selection for patients with psoriasis.

Guselkumab, a human IgG1 monoclonal antibody that blocks interleukin-23, has been evaluated in one Phase 2 and two Phase 3 trials in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis, in which disease severity was assessed using Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) and Investigator's Global Assessment (IGA) scores. Through the application of landmark and longitudinal exposure-response (E-R) modeling analyses, we sought to predict the guselkumab dose-response (D-R) relationship using data from 1459 patients who participated in these trials. A recently developed novel latent-variable Type I Indirect Response joint model was applied to PASI75/90/100 and IGA response thresholds, with placebo effect empirically modeled. An effect of body weight on E-R, independent of pharmacokinetics, was identified. Thorough landmark analyses also were implemented using the same dataset. The E-R models were combined with a population pharmacokinetic model to generate D-R predictions. The relative merits of longitudinal and landmark analysis also are discussed. The results provide a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the D-R relationship.

Population Pharmacokinetics and Exposure-Response Modeling Analyses of Golimumab in Children and Young Adults With Recently Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes.

Golimumab was recently evaluated in a phase 2a, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter study (T1GER study) for safety and efficacy in children and young adults with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes (T1D). Golimumab showed significant treatment effect where endogenous insulin production was preserved and clinical and metabolic parameters were improved. The objective of this report was to evaluate pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic data from the T1GER study by developing a population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) model and performing exposure-response (ER) analyses. The PopPK model was developed using data from the T1D study and 2 other pediatric studies with golimumab in ulcerative colitis and in polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis. A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination was applied to describe the concentration-time profiles. Typical parameters normalized to the values in subjects with a standard weight of 70 kg were apparent clearance, 0.850 L/day; apparent volume of distribution, 16.0 L; and absorption rate constant, 1.01/day. From the ER analyses, no clear trends were observed for changes in both C-peptide area under the concentration-time curve and hemoglobin A1c levels for the relatively narrow exposure ranges following the body surface area-based dosing regimen used in this study. In conclusion, the developed PopPK model was able to adequately describe the observed PK of golimumab in patients with T1D. Although golimumab showed significant treatment effect, the ER analyses did not show clear trends within the active treatment group, which may indicate that the exposure from this T1D-specific dosing regimen was at the plateau of the ER curve.

ARIA in patients treated with lecanemab (BAN2401) in a phase 2 study in early Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Lecanemab is a humanized immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) monoclonal antibody that preferentially targets soluble aggregated Aß species (protofibrils) with activity at amyloid plaques. Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA) profiles appear to differ for various anti-amyloid antibodies. Here, we present ARIA data from a large phase 2 lecanemab trial (Study 201) in early Alzheimer's disease. METHODS: Study 201 trial was double-blind, placebo-controlled (core) with an open-label extension (OLE). Observed ARIA events were summarized and modeled via Kaplan-Meier graphs. An exposure response model was developed. RESULTS: In the phase 2 core and OLE, there was a low incidence of ARIA-E (<10%), with <3% symptomatic cases. ARIA-E was generally asymptomatic, mild-to-moderate in severity, and occurred early (<3 months). ARIA-E was correlated with maximum lecanemab serum concentration and incidence was higher in apolipoprotein E4 (ApoE4) homozygous carriers. ARIA-H and ARIA-E occurred with similar frequency in core and OLE. DISCUSSION: Lecanemab can be administered without titration with modest incidence of ARIA.

Population Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling of the Effect of Abrocitinib on QT Intervals in Healthy Volunteers.

Abrocitinib is a selective Janus kinase 1 inhibitor for the treatment of moderate to severe atopic dermatitis (AD). To assess the relationship between abrocitinib plasma concentrations and heart rate (HR)-corrected QT (QTc) and HR and calculate the effect of abrocitinib on these parameters at supratherapeutic concentrations, 36 healthy volunteers received single doses of abrocitinib 600 mg, placebo, and moxifloxacin 400 mg in a 3-period crossover study. The relationship between change from baseline in Fridericia-corrected QTc (∆QTcF) values and abrocitinib plasma concentrations was modeled using a prespecified linear mixed-effects model. The 90%CIs for time-matched placebo-corrected ∆QTcF (∆∆QTcF) were calculated from model parameter estimates and assessed against the regulatory threshold (10 millisecond) at the predicted supratherapeutic concentration in patients with atopic dermatitis (2156 ng/mL). Mean (90%CI) time-matched placebo-corrected change from baseline in HR (∆∆HR) was calculated similarly. At the supratherapeutic concentration, mean (90%CI) estimates for ∆∆QTcF and ∆∆HR were 6.00 (4.52-7.49) milliseconds and 6.51 (5.23-7.80) bpm, respectively. Despite a concentration-dependent effect on ∆QTcF and ∆HR, with statistically significant slopes (90%CI) of 0.0026 (0.0018-0.0035) milliseconds/(ng/mL) and 0.0031 (0.0024-0.0038) bpm/(ng/mL), respectively, abrocitinib does not have a clinically significant effect on QTc interval or HR at supratherapeutic exposures.

Fathead Minnows Exposed to Organic Compounds from Oil Sands Tailings as Embryos Have Reduced Survival, Impaired Development, and Altered Behaviors That Persist into Larval Stages.

Our study evaluated whether exposure to naphthenic acid fraction compounds (NAFCs) extracted from oil sands process-affected waters (OSPW) has adverse effects on fish embryos that persist into later life. We exposed fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) embryos to concentrations of NAFCs found in OSPW (2.5-54 mg/L) for 7 days (1 day postfertilization to hatch), then raised surviving larvae in outdoor mesocosms of uncontaminated lake water for 1 month. Embryos exposed to NAFCs were more likely to exhibit malformations (by up to 8-fold) and had slower heart rates (by up to 24%) compared to controls. Fish raised in uncontaminated lake water following exposure to NAFCs as embryos, were 2.5-fold less likely to survive during the larval stage than control fish. These fish also showed up to a 45% decrease in swim activity and a 36% increase in swim burst events during behavioral tests relative to controls. We conclude that exposure to NAFCs during the embryonic stage can have lasting effects on fish survival, physiology, and behavior that persist at least through the larval stage. These findings of delayed mortalities and persistent sublethal effects of embryonic NAFC exposure are relevant to informing the development of regulations on treated OSPW releases from mining operations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:1319-1332. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

An updated lymphohematopoietic and bladder cancers risk evaluation for occupational and environmental exposures to 1,3-butadiene.

EPA designated 1,3-butadiene (BD) as a high priority chemical in December 2019 and is presently performing an evaluation under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). EPA's cancer dose-response assessment for BD was published in 2002 and was primarily based on a study on workers exposed to BD in the North American synthetic Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (SBR) Industry developed by the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB). EPA relied upon a Poisson regression of leukemia mortality data from this cohort (hereinafter referred to as the SBR study) to estimate the cancer potency of BD. At the time, the SBR cohort included more than 15,000 male workers that were followed up through 1991. The SBR cohort has undergone multiple updates over the past two decades. Most recently, Sathiakumar et al. (2021a, b) published an update, with 18 more years of follow up in addition to approximately 5,000 female workers and updated exposure concentration estimates. Recent EPA assessments (e.g., for ethylene oxide, USEPA 2016) based on epidemiological studies use Cox proportional hazards models because they offer better control of the effect of age in cancer development and are less restrictive than Poisson regression models. Here, we develop exposure-response models using standard Cox proportional hazards regression. We explore the relationship between six endpoints (all leukemia, lymphoid leukemia, myeloid leukemia, multiple myeloma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and bladder cancer) and exposures to BD using the most recent exposure metrics and the most recent update of the SBR study. After adjusting for statistically significant covariates, an upper 95% confidence level on the cancer potency based on leukemia derived herein is 0.000086 per ppm, which is approximately 1,000-fold less than EPA's (2002) estimate of 0.08 per ppm and about 10-fold less than TCEQ's (2008) estimate of 0.0011 per ppm.

Exposure-response modeling of the effect of glasdegib on cardiac repolarization in patients with cancer.

PURPOSE: To characterize the effect of glasdegib on cardiac repolarization (QTc) in patients with advanced cancer. METHODS: A concentration-QTc model was developed using data from two glasdegib single-agent, dose-escalation trials. Triplicate electrocardiogram was performed at pre-specified timepoints paired with pharmacokinetic blood collections after a single dose and at steady-state. Changes in QTc from baseline were predicted by model-based simulations at the clinical dose (100 mg QD) and in a supratherapeutic setting. RESULTS: Glasdegib did not affect the heart rate, but had a positive effect on the corrected QT interval, described by a linear mixed-effects model with ΔQTcF (QTc using Fridericia's formula) as the dependent variable with glasdegib plasma concentrations from doses of 5-640 mg QD. The predicted mean QTcF change (upper bound of the 95% CI) was 5.30 (6.24) msec for the therapeutic 100-mg QD dose; at supratherapeutic concentrations (40% and 100% increase over the therapeutic Cmax), it was 7.42 (8.74) and 12.09 (14.25) msec, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship of glasdegib exposure and QTc was well characterized by the model. The effect of glasdegib on the QTc interval did not cross the threshold of clinical concern for an oncology drug. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01286467 and NCT00953758.

Exposure-Response Modeling to Support Dosing Selection for Phase IIb Development of Kukoamine B in Sepsis Patients.

Aim: Kukoamine B, a small molecule compound, is being developed for the treatment of sepsis in a Phase II clinical trial. The objective of this study was to optimize dosing selection for a Phase IIb clinical trial using an exposure-response model. Methods: Data of 34 sepsis patients from a Phase IIa clinical trial were used in the model: 10 sepsis patients from the placebo group and a total of 24 sepsis patients from the 0.06 mg/kg, 0.12 mg/kg, and 0.24 mg/kg drug groups. Exposure-response relationship was constructed to model the impact of the standard care therapy and area under curve (AUC) of kukoamine B to the disease biomarker (SOFA score). The model was evaluated by goodness of fit and visual predictive check. The simulation was performed 1,000 times based on the built model. Results: The data of the placebo and the drug groups were pooled and modeled by a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling approach in sepsis. A latent-variable approach in conjunction with an inhibitory indirect response model was used to link the standard care therapy effect and drug exposure to SOFA score. The maximum fraction of the standard care therapy was estimated to 0.792. The eliminate rate constant of the SOFA score was 0.263/day for the standard care therapy. The production rate of SOFA score (Kin) was estimated at 0.0569/day and the AUC at half the maximal drug effect (EAUC50) was estimated at 1,320 h*ng/mL. Model evaluation showed that the built model could well describe the observed SOFA score. Model-based simulations showed that the SOFA score on day 7 decreased to a plateau when AUC increased to 1,500 h*ng/mL. Conclusion: We built an exposure-response model characterizing the pharmacological effect of kukoamine B from the standard care therapy in sepsis patients. A dose regimen of 0.24 mg/kg was finally recommended for the Phase IIb clinical trial of kukoamine B based on modeling and simulation results.

Effect of lofexidine on cardiac repolarization during treatment of opioid withdrawal.

BACKGROUND: Lofexidine is a non-opioid treatment for opioid withdrawal syndrome. Its sympatholytic actions counteract the nor-adrenergic hyperactivity that occurs during abrupt opioid withdrawal. METHODS: The effect of lofexidine 2.16 and 2.88 mg/day on QTcF (QT interval, heart-rate corrected, Fridericia formula) was studied as part of a large, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01863186). ECGs were time-matched to blood sampling for lofexidine concentration and were collected at prespecified timepoints over a 7-day inpatient period. Analyses included mean change-from-baseline QTcF and exposure-response modeling to predict QTcF at relevant lofexidine concentrations. RESULTS: A total of 681 adult men and women received at least 1 dose of study drug; 566 qualified for inclusion in the concentration-QTcF analysis. Most subjects were withdrawing from heroin. During the first 24 h (Days 1-2) post-baseline, small increases in QTcF were observed in all groups: 4.7 ms for lofexidine 2.16 mg, 7.4 ms for lofexidine 2.88 mg and 1.4 ms for placebo. These increases were transient; by Day 4, when lofexidine levels had reached steady-state, QTcF increases were not present. By Day 7, QTcF was decreased from baseline in all groups. Exposure-response modeling predicted <10 ms increases in QTcF at lofexidine concentrations 3 times those obtained at maximal recommended dose. CONCLUSIONS: Lofexidine was associated with small, transient QTcF increases. Decreases in QTcF that occurred with higher lofexidine concentrations argue for an indirect QTcF effect, potentially from changes in autonomic tone. Both opioid withdrawal and lofexidine's sympatholytic actions would be expected to alter sympathetic outflow over the 7-day withdrawal.

Population exposure-response analysis of cabozantinib efficacy and safety endpoints in patients with renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In the phase III METEOR trial, tyrosine kinase inhibitor cabozantinib significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), and overall survival compared to everolimus in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who had received prior VEGFR inhibitor therapy. In METEOR, RCC patients started at a daily 60-mg cabozantinib tablet (Cabometyx™) dose but could reduce to 40- or 20-mg to achieve a tolerated exposure. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Exposure-response (ER) models were developed to characterize the relationship between cabozantinib at clinically relevant exposures in RCC patients enrolled in METEOR and efficacy (PFS and tumor response) and safety endpoints. RESULTS: Compared to the average steady-state cabozantinib concentration for a 60-mg dose, exposures at simulated 40- and 20-mg starting doses were predicted to result in higher risk of disease progression or death [hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.10 and 1.39, respectively], lower maximal median reduction in tumor size (- 11.9 vs - 9.1 and - 4.5%, respectively), and lower ORR (19.1 vs 15.6 and 8.7%, respectively). The 60-mg exposure was also associated with higher risk for selected adverse events (AEs) palmar-plantar erythrodysesthesia syndrome (grade ≥ 1), fatigue/asthenia (grade ≥ 3), diarrhea (grade ≥ 3), and hypertension (predicted HRs of 2.21, 2.01, 1.78, and 1.85, respectively) relative to the predicted average steady-state cabozantinib concentration for a 20-mg starting dose. CONCLUSION: ER modeling predicted that cabozantinib exposures in RCC patients at the 60-mg starting dose would provide greater anti-tumor activity relative to exposures at simulated 40- and 20-mg starting doses that were associated with decreased rates of clinically relevant AEs.

Exposure-response analysis and simulation of lenvatinib safety and efficacy in patients with radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer.

PURPOSE: Once-daily lenvatinib 24 mg is the approved dose for radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer. In a phase 3 trial with lenvatinib, the starting dose of 24 mg was associated with a relatively high incidence of adverse events that required dose reductions. We used an exposure-response model to investigate the risk-benefit of different dosing regimens for lenvatinib. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics modeling analysis was used to simulate the potential benefit of lower starting doses to retain efficacy with improved safety. The seven lenvatinib regimens tested were: 24 mg; and 20 mg, 18 mg, and 14 mg, all with or without up-titration to 24 mg. Exposure-response models for efficacy and safety were created using a 24-week time course. RESULTS: The approved dose of lenvatinib at 24 mg, predicted the best efficacy. However, the lenvatinib dosing regimens of 14 mg with up-titration or 18 mg without up-titration potentially provides comparable efficacy (objective response rate at 24 weeks) and a better safety profile. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with lenvatinib at starting doses lower than the approved once-daily 24 mg dose could provide comparable antitumor efficacy and a similar or better safety profile. Based on the results from this modeling and simulation study, a comparator dose of lenvatinib 18 mg without up-titration was selected for evaluation in a clinical trial.

Effect of ulixertinib, a novel ERK1/2 inhibitor, on the QT/QTc interval in patients with advanced solid tumor malignancies.

PURPOSE: The aim of this analysis was to investigate the potential for ulixertinib (BVD-523) to prolong cardiac repolarization. The mean prolongation of the corrected QT (QTc) interval was predicted at the mean maximum drug concentrations of the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D; 600 mg BID) and of higher concentrations. In addition, the effect of ulixertinib on other quantitative ECG parameters was assessed. METHODS: In a two-part, phase 1, open-label study in adults with advanced solid tumors, 105 patients [24 in Part 1 (dose escalation) and 81 in Part 2 (cohort expansion)] were included in a QT prolongation analysis. Electrocardiograms (ECGs) extracted from 12-lead Holter monitors, along with time-matched pharmacokinetic blood samples, were collected over 12 h on cycle 1 day 1 and cycle 1 day 15 and analyzed by a core ECG laboratory. RESULTS: A small increase in heart rate was observed on both study days (up to 5.6 bpm on day 1 and up to 7 bpm on day 15). The estimated mean changes from baseline in the study-specific QTc interval (QTcSS), at the ulixertinib Cmax, were - 0.529 ms (90% CI - 6.621, 5.562) on day 1 and - 9.202 ms (90% CI - 22.505, 4.101) on day 15. The concentration: QTc regression slopes were mildly positive but not statistically significant [0.53 (90% CI - 1.343, 2.412) and 1.16 (90% CI - 1.732, 4.042) ms per µg/mL for days 1 and 15, respectively]. Ulixertinib had no meaningful effect on PR or QRS intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Ulixertinib administered to patients with solid tumors at clinically relevant doses has a low risk for QT/QTc prolongation or any other effects on ECG parameters. REGISTRATION: The study is registered at Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01781429) and was sponsored by BioMed Valley Discoveries.

Individual-Specific QT Interval Correction for Drugs With Substantial Heart Rate Effect Using Holter ECGs Extracted Over a Wide Range of Heart Rates.

Although fixed QT correction methods are typically used to adjust for the effect of heart rate on the QT interval in thorough QT/QTc studies, individual-specific QT correction (QTcI = QT/RRI ) is advisable for drugs that increase the heart rate by >5 to 10 beats/minute (bpm). QTcI is traditionally derived using resting drug-free electrocardiograms (ECGs) collected at prespecified times. However, the resting heart rate range in healthy individuals is narrow, and extrapolation of inferences from these data to higher heart rates could be inappropriate. Accordingly, the QTcI derived from triplicate ECGs extracted at prespecified times (the traditional [T] method, yielding QTcIT) was compared with QTcIs obtained using ECGs with a wider heart rate range (alternative Holter [H] method, yielding QTcIH) from 24-hour Holter recordings from 40 healthy individuals selected from a central ECG laboratory database. For QTcIH, 10-second ECGs were extracted at stable heart rates in the ranges of 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, and 81-90 bpm (9 ECGs in each bin = 36 ECGs). An independent set of 40 ECGs with heart rates from 51 to 90 bpm was extracted from each individual to validate the accuracy of QTcI by the 2 methods. For the validation set, the QTcIH was a better QT correction method (slope of QTc vs heart rate closer to zero) than QTcIT. The mean difference between QTcIT and QTcIH increased from 3.1 milliseconds at 65 bpm to 10.0 milliseconds at 90 bpm (P < 0.01). The QTcIT exceeded QTcIH at heart rates > 60 bpm. Employment of the QTcIH may be more appropriate for studies involving drugs that increase heart rate.