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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(25): e2318292121, 2024 Jun 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38861594

RESUMO

From close friends to people on a first date, imagining a shared future appears fundamental to relationships. Yet, no previous research has conceptualized the act of imagination as a socially constructed process that affects how connected we feel to others. The present studies provide a framework for investigating imagination as a collaborative process in which individuals cocreate shared representations of hypothetical events-what we call collaborative imagination. Across two preregistered studies (N = 244), we provide evidence that collaborative imagination of a shared future fosters social connection in novel dyads-beyond imagining a shared future individually or shared experience in general. Subjective ratings and natural language processing of participants' imagined narratives illuminate the representational features of imagined events shaped by collaborative imagination. Together, the present findings have the potential to shift how we view the structure and function of imagination with implications for better understanding interpersonal relationships and collective cognition.


Assuntos
Comportamento Cooperativo , Imaginação , Relações Interpessoais , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Adulto Jovem , Cognição/fisiologia
2.
Traffic ; 25(4): e12935, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38629580

RESUMO

The protozoan parasites Plasmodium falciparum, Leishmania spp. and Trypanosoma cruzi continue to exert a significant toll on the disease landscape of the human population in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Control measures have helped reduce the burden of their respective diseases-malaria, leishmaniasis and Chagas disease-in endemic regions. However, the need for new drugs, innovative vaccination strategies and molecular markers of disease severity and outcomes has emerged because of developing antimicrobial drug resistance, comparatively inadequate or absent vaccines, and a lack of trustworthy markers of morbid outcomes. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) have been widely reported to play a role in the biology and pathogenicity of P. falciparum, Leishmania spp. and T. cruzi ever since they were discovered. EVs are secreted by a yet to be fully understood mechanism in protozoans into the extracellular milieu and carry a cargo of diverse molecules that reflect the originator cell's metabolic state. Although our understanding of the biogenesis and function of EVs continues to deepen, the question of how EVs in P. falciparum, Leishmania spp. and T. cruzi can serve as targets for a translational agenda into clinical and public health interventions is yet to be fully explored. Here, as a consortium of protozoan researchers, we outline a plan for future researchers and pose three questions to direct an EV's translational agenda in P. falciparum, Leishmania spp. and T. cruzi. We opine that in the long term, executing this blueprint will help bridge the current unmet needs of these medically important protozoan diseases in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.


Assuntos
Doença de Chagas , Vesículas Extracelulares , Leishmania , Parasitos , Trypanosoma cruzi , Animais , Humanos , Doença de Chagas/epidemiologia , Doença de Chagas/parasitologia
3.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(7): e2208871120, 2023 02 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36745779

RESUMO

Studies have shown that the use of languages which grammatically associate the future and the present tends to correlate with more future-oriented behavior. We take an experimental approach to go beyond correlation. We asked bilingual research participants, people fluent in two languages (12 language pairs) which differ in the way they encode time, to make a set of future-oriented economic decisions. We find that participants addressed in a language in which the present and the future are marked more distinctly tended to value future events less than participants addressed in a language in which the present and the future are similarly marked. In an additional experiment, bilingual research participants (seven language pairs) were asked to choose whether they wish to complete a more enjoyable task first or later (delayed gratification). When addressed in a language in which the present and the future are marked more distinctly, participants tended to prefer immediate gratification more than when addressed in a language in which the present and the future are marked less distinctly. We shed light on the mechanism in a within-person experiment in which bilingual research participants (nine language pairs) were asked to spatially mark the distance between the present and the future. When participants were addressed in a language in which the present and the future are marked more distinctly, they tended to express more precise temporal beliefs compared with when addressed in a language in which the present and the future are marked less distinctly.


Assuntos
Multilinguismo , Humanos , Idioma , Previsões
4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(35): e2302654120, 2023 08 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37603741

RESUMO

The affordance of an object refers to its functional properties. For example, a bowl has the affordance of holding water, but a sieve does not. Here, we report that ants learn the affordance of a novel object without this attribute being rewarded, and use the memory of this affordance to avoid predicted, but never experienced, crowding. Ants were trained to feeders, which could support either only one ant or many. Two feeders were encountered, each of identical design but differently scented. After training, on the outward journey, half the ants encounter nestmates, which had fed on food matching one of the training feeders. Encountering returning nestmates reduced preference for the feeder matching the scent of the encountered nestmates, but only for ants trained on a limited-access feeder; ants trained on an unlimited feeder were unaffected. In other words, only if ants know that the food access is limited, and receive information that this feeder is heavily visited, do they reduce their preference for this feeder. To achieve this, the ants had to combine memories of the feeders' affordance with the presence of nestmates. Then they had to use semantic knowledge that restricted food access combined with nestmate presence predicts a likelihood of crowding, or a rule such as "if the food is restricted and there are nestmates on the path, go to another food source." Regardless of the mechanism, these results demonstrate that ants latently learn the affordance of their surroundings, an unexpected cognitive ability for an invertebrate.


Assuntos
Formigas , Animais , Aprendizagem , Cognição , Alimentos , Conhecimento , Feromônios
5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(46): e2214334120, 2023 Nov 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37931104

RESUMO

Civil infrastructure will be essential to face the interlinked existential threats of climate change and rising resource demands while ensuring a livable Anthropocene for all. However, conventional infrastructure planning largely neglects the contributions and maintenance of Earth's ecological life support systems, which provide irreplaceable services supporting human well-being. The stability and performance of these services depend on biodiversity, but conventional infrastructure practices, narrowly focused on controlling natural capital, have inadvertently degraded biodiversity while perpetuating social inequities. Here, we envision a new infrastructure paradigm wherein biodiversity and ecosystem services are a central objective of civil engineering. In particular, we reimagine infrastructure practice such that 1) ecosystem integrity and species conservation are explicit objectives from the outset of project planning; 2) infrastructure practices integrate biodiversity into diverse project portfolios along a spectrum from conventional to nature-based solutions and natural habitats; 3) ecosystem functions reinforce and enhance the performance and lifespan of infrastructure assets; and 4) civil engineering promotes environmental justice by counteracting legacies of social inequity in infrastructure development and nature conservation. This vision calls for a fundamental rethinking of the standards, practices, and mission of infrastructure development agencies and a broadening of scope for conservation science. We critically examine the legal and professional precedents for this paradigm shift, as well as the moral and economic imperatives for manifesting equitable infrastructure planning that mainstreams biodiversity and nature's benefits to people. Finally, we set an applied research agenda for supporting this vision and highlight financial, professional, and policy pathways for achieving it.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Humanos , Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais
6.
Hum Genomics ; 18(1): 82, 2024 Jul 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39030587

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Pharmacogenomics (PGx) constitutes an important part of personalized medicine and has several clinical applications. PGx role in clinical practice is known, however, it has not been widely adopted yet. In this study, we aim to investigate the perspectives of Greek physicians regarding the implementation of PGx testing in clinical practice and the key issues associated with it. METHODS: Fourteen interviews were conducted with physicians of various specialties for which PGx applications are available. A semi-structured interview guide was utilized based on the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) context and the Diffusion of Innovation model. Transcripts were coded independently and compared by two members of the research team. Descriptive statistics were generated using Microsoft Excel. RESULTS: Six main themes emerged: awareness and use of PGx testing; source of information; key stakeholders of the PGx supply chain, their interactions and change agents; clinical benefit and significance of PGx testing; barriers and lack of reimbursement; and recommendations to boost the PGx adoption rate. Most respondents were aware of PGx applications, but only three had already recommended PGx testing. Peer-reviewed journals along with clinical guidelines were regarded as the most used source of information while stakeholders of the PGx supply chain were discussed. PGx was considered that promote patient-centered care, enhance medication clinical effectiveness, decrease the risk of side effects, and reduce healthcare costs. Lack of reimbursement, scarcity of resources, and high PGx cost were the foremost barriers affecting PGx adoption. CONCLUSIONS: It was concluded that if case PGx testing is reimbursed and physicians' training is reinforced, PGx implementation will be boosted and improved shortly.


Assuntos
Farmacogenética , Testes Farmacogenômicos , Médicos , Humanos , Grécia , Testes Farmacogenômicos/métodos , Testes Farmacogenômicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Farmacogenética/métodos , Medicina de Precisão/métodos , Feminino , Masculino , Atitude do Pessoal de Saúde , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
7.
Cereb Cortex ; 34(7)2024 Jul 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39042032

RESUMO

Delay discounting refers to the tendency of individuals to devalue future rewards as the delay in their receipt increases over time. Previous studies have indicated that future self-continuity correlates with delay discounting rates. However, the neural basis underlying the relationship between future self-continuity and delay discounting is not clear. To address this question, we used voxel-based morphometry and resting-state functional connectivity analyses to investigate the neural basis underlying the association between future self-continuity and delay discounting. Behavioral result showed that future self-continuity was positively associated with delay discounting. Voxel-based morphometry analysis result indicated that gray matter volume in the right dorsal anterior insula was positively correlated with future self-continuity. Resting-state functional connectivity analysis found that functional connectivity between the right dorsal anterior insula and anterior cingulate cortex was positively associated with future self-continuity. Mediation analysis showed that the right dorsal anterior insula-right anterior cingulate cortex functional connectivity partially mediated the relationship between future self-continuity and delay discounting. These results suggested that right dorsal anterior insula-right anterior cingulate cortex functional connectivity could be the neural basis underlying the association between future self-continuity and delay discounting. In summary, the study provided novel insights into how future self-continuity affected delay discounting and offers new explanations from a neural perspective.


Assuntos
Desvalorização pelo Atraso , Giro do Cíngulo , Córtex Insular , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética , Humanos , Masculino , Desvalorização pelo Atraso/fisiologia , Giro do Cíngulo/fisiologia , Giro do Cíngulo/diagnóstico por imagem , Feminino , Adulto Jovem , Córtex Insular/fisiologia , Córtex Insular/diagnóstico por imagem , Adulto , Vias Neurais/fisiologia , Vias Neurais/diagnóstico por imagem , Mapeamento Encefálico , Recompensa
8.
Hippocampus ; 34(1): 2-6, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37904663

RESUMO

Episodic counterfactual thinking (ECT) consists of imagining alternative outcomes to past personal events. Previous research has shown that ECT shares common neural substrates with episodic future thinking (EFT): our ability to imagine possible future events. Both ECT and EFT have been shown to critically depend on the hippocampus, and past research has explored hippocampal engagement as a function of the perceived plausibility of an imagined future event. However, the extent to which the hippocampus is modulated by perceived plausibility during ECT is unknown. In this study, we combine two functional magnetic resonance imaging datasets to investigate whether perceived plausibility modulates hippocampal activity during ECT. Our results indicate that plausibility parametrically modulates hippocampal activity during ECT, and that such modulation is confined to the left anterior portion of the hippocampus. Moreover, our results indicate that this modulation is positive, such that increased activity in the left anterior hippocampus is associated with higher ratings of ECT plausibility. We suggest that neither effort nor difficulty alone can account for these results, and instead suggest possible alternatives to explain the role of the hippocampus during the construction of plausible and implausible ECT.


Assuntos
Memória Episódica , Pensamento , Imaginação , Hipocampo/diagnóstico por imagem , Lobo Temporal , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética/métodos
9.
Am J Epidemiol ; 2024 Mar 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38517022

RESUMO

Depressive symptoms have rapidly accelerated among recent US adolescent birth cohorts, yet there remains little understanding of trends among racialized and minoritized groups. These groups may experience depressive symptoms due to the deleterious effects of structural racism. Using 2005-2020 Monitoring the Future survey data, we examine all racialized groups using within-group analyses to observe trends in high depressive symptoms across cohorts. Generally, across racialized groups and ages, the odds of high depressive symptoms increased in recent birth cohorts. For example, among 15-16-year-old students racialized as American Indian or Alaska Native and Black-Hispanic/Latine, the 2003-2006 birth cohort had 3.08 (95% CI: 2.00, 4.76) and 6.95 (95% CI: 2.70, 17.88) times higher odds, respectively, of high depressive symptoms compared to the 1987-1990 birth cohorts. Moreover, in a given year 15-16-year-olds generally experienced the highest depressive symptoms compared to 13-14 and 17-18-year-olds, suggesting that age-effects peaked during mid-adolescence. Depressive symptoms increased among US adolescents by birth cohort, within all racialized and minoritized groups assessed. Public health efforts to reduce disparities may consider barriers such as structural racism that may impact the mental health of racialized/minoritized adolescents while increasing access to culturally competent mental health providers and school-based services.

10.
BMC Plant Biol ; 24(1): 269, 2024 Apr 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38605338

RESUMO

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Irã (Geográfico) , Extinção Biológica , Temperatura
11.
Cell Tissue Res ; 396(1): 1-18, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38416172

RESUMO

Imaging technologies have played a pivotal role in advancing biological research by enabling visualization of biological structures and processes. While traditional electron microscopy (EM) produces two-dimensional images, emerging techniques now allow high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) characterization of specimens in situ, meeting growing needs in molecular and cellular biology. Combining transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with serial sectioning inaugurated 3D imaging, attracting biologists seeking to explore cell ultrastructure and driving advancement of 3D EM reconstruction. By comprehensively and precisely rendering internal structure and distribution, 3D TEM reconstruction provides unparalleled ultrastructural insights into cells and molecules, holding tremendous value for elucidating structure-function relationships and broadly propelling structural biology. Here, we first introduce the principle of 3D reconstruction of cells and tissues by classical approaches in TEM and then discuss modern technologies utilizing TEM and on new SEM-based as well as cryo-electron microscope (cryo-EM) techniques. 3D reconstruction techniques from serial sections, electron tomography (ET), and the recent single-particle analysis (SPA) are examined; the focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy (FIB-SEM), the serial block-face scanning electron microscopy (SBF-SEM), and automatic tape-collecting lathe ultramicrotome (ATUM-SEM) for 3D reconstruction of large volumes are discussed. Finally, we review the challenges and development prospects of these technologies in life science. It aims to provide an informative reference for biological researchers.


Assuntos
Imageamento Tridimensional , Microtomia , Imageamento Tridimensional/métodos , Microscopia Eletrônica de Varredura , Microscopia Eletrônica de Transmissão , Microtomia/métodos , Microscopia Crioeletrônica
12.
New Phytol ; 2024 Jul 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39030765

RESUMO

Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo-tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

13.
New Phytol ; 2024 Aug 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39183371

RESUMO

Phenotypic plasticity describes a genotype's ability to produce different phenotypes in response to different environments. Breeding crops that exhibit appropriate levels of plasticity for future climates will be crucial to meeting global demand, but knowledge of the critical environmental factors is limited to a handful of well-studied major crops. Using 727 maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids phenotyped for grain yield in 45 environments, we investigated the ability of a genetic algorithm and two other methods to identify environmental determinants of grain yield from a large set of candidate environmental variables constructed using minimal assumptions. The genetic algorithm identified pre- and postanthesis maximum temperature, mid-season solar radiation, and whole season net evapotranspiration as the four most important variables from a candidate set of 9150. Importantly, these four variables are supported by previous literature. After calculating reaction norms for each environmental variable, candidate genes were identified and gene annotations investigated to demonstrate how this method can generate insights into phenotypic plasticity. The genetic algorithm successfully identified known environmental determinants of hybrid maize grain yield. This demonstrates that the methodology could be applied to other less well-studied phenotypes and crops to improve understanding of phenotypic plasticity and facilitate breeding crops for future climates.

14.
Crit Rev Microbiol ; : 1-21, 2024 Jun 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38900695

RESUMO

The globe has recently seen several terrifying pandemics and outbreaks, underlining the ongoing danger presented by infectious microorganisms. This literature review aims to explore the wide range of infections that have the potential to lead to pandemics in the present and the future and pave the way to the conception of epidemic early warning systems. A systematic review was carried out to identify and compile data on infectious agents known to cause pandemics and those that pose future concerns. One hundred and fifteen articles were included in the review. They provided insights on 25 pathogens that could start or contribute to creating pandemic situations. Diagnostic procedures, clinical symptoms, and infection transmission routes were analyzed for each of these pathogens. Each infectious agent's potential is discussed, shedding light on the crucial aspects that render them potential threats to the future. This literature review provides insights for policymakers, healthcare professionals, and researchers in their quest to identify potential pandemic pathogens, and in their efforts to enhance pandemic preparedness through building early warning systems for continuous epidemiological monitoring.

15.
Ann Surg Oncol ; 2024 Sep 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39230854

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The regenerative capacities of the liver and improvements in surgical techniques have expanded the possibilities of resectability. Liver resection is often the only curative treatment for primary and secondary malignancies, despite the risk of post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). This serious complication (with a 50% mortality rate) can be avoided by better assessment of liver volume and function of the future liver remnant (FLR). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this review was to understand and assess clinical, biological, and imaging predictors of PHLF risk, as well as the various hypertrophy techniques, to achieve an adequate FLR before hepatectomy. METHOD: We reviewed the state of the art in liver regeneration and FLR hypertrophy techniques. RESULTS: The use of new biological scores (such as the aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index + albumin-bilirubin [APRI+ALBI] score), concurrent utilization of 99mTc-mebrofenin scintigraphy (HBS), or dynamic hepatocyte contrast-enhanced MRI (DHCE-MRI) for liver volumetry helps predict the risk of PHLF. Besides portal vein embolization, there are other FLR optimization techniques that have their indications in case of risk of failure (e.g., associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy, liver venous deprivation) or in specific situations (transarterial radioembolization). CONCLUSION: There is a need to standardize volumetry and function measurement techniques, as well as FLR hypertrophy techniques, to limit the risk of PHLF.

16.
J Card Fail ; 30(1): 64-77, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38065308

RESUMO

Given the numerous opportunities and the wide knowledge gaps in pediatric heart failure, an international group of pediatric heart failure experts with diverse backgrounds were invited and tasked with identifying research gaps in each pediatric heart failure domain that scientists and funding agencies need to focus on over the next decade.


Assuntos
Insuficiência Cardíaca , Humanos , Criança , Insuficiência Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/terapia , Lacunas de Evidências
17.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(1): e16998, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37899690

RESUMO

Identifying droughts and accurately evaluating drought impacts on vegetation growth are crucial to understanding the terrestrial carbon balance across China. However, few studies have identified the critical drought thresholds that impact China's vegetation growth, leading to large uncertainty in assessing the ecological consequences of droughts. In this study, we utilize gridded surface soil moisture data and satellite-observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to assess vegetation response to droughts in China during 2001-2018. Based on the nonlinear relationship between changing drought stress and the coincident anomalies of NDVI during the growing season, we derive the spatial patterns of satellite-based drought thresholds (T SM ) that impact vegetation growth in China via a framework for detecting drought thresholds combining the methods of feature extraction, coincidence analysis, and piecewise linear regression. The T SM values represent percentile-based drought threshold levels, with smaller T SM values corresponding to more negative anomalies of soil moisture. On average, T SM is at the 8.7th percentile and detectable in 64.4% of China's vegetated lands, with lower values in North China and Jianghan Plain and higher values in the Inner Mongolia Plateau. Furthermore, T SM for forests is commonly lower than that for grasslands. We also find that agricultural irrigation modifies the drought thresholds for croplands in the Sichuan Basin. For future projections, Earth System Models predict that more regions in China will face an increasing risk for ecological drought, and the Hexi Corridor-Hetao Plain and Shandong Peninsula will become hotspots of ecological drought. This study has important implications for accurately evaluating the impacts of drought on vegetation growth in China and provides a scientific reference for the effective ecomanagement of China's terrestrial ecosystems.


Assuntos
Secas , Ecossistema , Florestas , Solo , China
18.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(5): e17296, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38715312

RESUMO

Prospective risks from climate change impacts in ocean and coastal systems are urging the implementation of nature-based solutions (NBS). These are climate-resilient strategies to maintain biodiversity and the delivery of ecosystem services, contributing to the adaptation of social-ecological systems and the mitigation of climate-related impacts. However, the effectiveness of measures like marine restoration or conservation is not exempt from the impacts of climate change, and the degree to which they can sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services remains unknown. Such uncertainty, together with the slow pace of implementation, causes decision-makers and societies to demand a better understanding of NBS effects. To address this gap, in this study, we use the risk mitigation capacity of marine NBS as a proxy for their effectiveness while providing a toolset for the implementation of the method. The method considers environmental data and relies on expert elicitation, allowing us to go beyond current practice to evaluate the effectiveness of NBS in reducing habitat or species risks under different future socio-political and climate-change scenarios. As a result, we present a ready-to-use tool, and supporting materials, for the implementation of the Climate Risk Assessment method and an illustrative example considering the application of the NBS "nature-inclusive harvesting" in two shellfisheries. The method works as a rapid assessment that guarantees comparability across sites and species due to its low data or resource demand, so it can be widely incorporated to adaptation policies across the marine realm.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Medição de Risco/métodos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Oceanos e Mares
19.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(7): e17406, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38982862

RESUMO

Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.


Assuntos
Aquecimento Global , Ecossistema , Desenvolvimento Vegetal , Temperatura , Estações do Ano , Temperatura Alta , Modelos Climáticos , Plantas , Mudança Climática
20.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(4): e17259, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38655624

RESUMO

Nature-based climate solutions (NCS) are championed as a primary tool to mitigate climate change, especially in forested regions capable of storing and sequestering vast amounts of carbon. New England is one of the most heavily forested regions in the United States (>75% forested by land area), and forest carbon is a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Large infrequent disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a major source of uncertainty and risk for policies relying on forest carbon for climate mitigation, especially as climate change is projected to alter the intensity and extent of hurricanes. To date, most research into disturbance impacts on forest carbon stocks has focused on fire. Here, we show that a single hurricane in the region can down between 121 and 250 MMTCO2e or 4.6%-9.4% of the total aboveground forest carbon, much greater than the carbon sequestered annually by New England's forests (16 MMTCO2e year-1). However, emissions from hurricanes are not instantaneous; it takes approximately 19 years for downed carbon to become a net emission and 100 years for 90% of the downed carbon to be emitted. Reconstructing hurricanes with the HURRECON and EXPOS models across a range of historical and projected wind speeds, we find that an 8% and 16% increase in hurricane wind speeds leads to a 10.7- and 24.8-fold increase in the extent of high-severity damaged areas (widespread tree mortality). Increased wind speed also leads to unprecedented geographical shifts in damage, both inland and northward, into heavily forested regions traditionally less affected by hurricanes. Given that a single hurricane can emit the equivalent of 10+ years of carbon sequestered by forests in New England, the status of these forests as a durable carbon sink is uncertain. Understanding the risks to forest carbon stocks from disturbances is necessary for decision-makers relying on forests as a NCS.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Tempestades Ciclônicas , Florestas , New England , Carbono/análise , Sequestro de Carbono , Modelos Teóricos
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