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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(28): e2318029121, 2024 Jul 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38950360

RESUMO

Indonesia has experienced rapid primary forest loss, second only to Brazil in modern history. We examined the fates of Indonesian deforested areas, immediately after clearing and over time, to quantify deforestation drivers in Indonesia. Using time-series satellite data, we tracked degradation and clearing events in intact and degraded natural forests from 1991 to 2020, as well as land use trajectories after forest loss. While an estimated 7.8 Mha (SE = 0.4) of forest cleared during this period had been planted with oil palms by 2020, another 8.8 Mha (SE = 0.4) remained unused. Of the 28.4 Mha (SE = 0.7) deforested, over half were either initially left idle or experienced crop failure before a land use could be detected, and 44% remained unused for 5 y or more. A majority (54%) of these areas were cleared mechanically (not by escaped fires), and in cases where idle lands were eventually converted to productive uses, oil palm plantations were by far the most common outcome. The apparent deliberate creation of idle deforested land in Indonesia and subsequent conversion of idle areas to oil palm plantations indicates that speculation and land banking for palm oil substantially contribute to forest loss, although failed plantations could also contribute to this dynamic. We also found that in Sumatra, few lowland forests remained, suggesting that a lack of remaining forest appropriate for palm oil production, together with an extensive area of banked deforested land, may partially explain slowing forest loss in Indonesia in recent years.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Florestas , Indonésia , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Agricultura
2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(6): e2312569121, 2024 Feb 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38285935

RESUMO

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions "regional rivalry" SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions "sustainability" SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.


Assuntos
Elefantes , Hominidae , Animais , Humanos , Ecossistema , Animais Selvagens , Ásia , África , Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais
3.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(12): e2211531120, 2023 03 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36913570

RESUMO

Mountain ecosystems are exposed to multiple anthropogenic pressures that are reshaping the distribution of plant populations. Range dynamics of mountain plants exhibit large variability with species expanding, shifting, or shrinking their elevational range. Using a dataset of more than 1 million records of common and red-listed native and alien plants, we could reconstruct range dynamics of 1,479 species of the European Alps over the last 30 y. Red-listed species were not able to track climate warming at the leading edge of their distribution, and further experienced a strong erosion of rear margins, resulting in an overall rapid range contraction. Common natives also contracted their range, albeit less drastically, through faster upslope shift at the rear than at the leading edge. By contrast, aliens quickly expanded upslope by moving their leading edge at macroclimate change speed, while keeping their rear margins almost still. Most red-listed natives and the large majority of aliens were warm-adapted, but only aliens showed high competitive abilities to thrive under high-resource and disturbed environments. Rapid upward shifts of the rear edge of natives were probably driven by multiple environmental pressures including climate change as well as land-use change and intensification. The high environmental pressure that populations encounter in the lowlands might constrain the ability of expanding species to shift their range into more natural areas at higher elevations. As red-listed natives and aliens mostly co-occurred in the lowlands, where human pressures are at their highest, conservation should prioritize low-elevation areas of the European Alps.


Assuntos
Altitude , Ecossistema , Humanos , Plantas , Adaptação Fisiológica , Mudança Climática
4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(12): e2117297119, 2022 03 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35286193

RESUMO

SignificanceUnderstanding the impacts of urbanization and the associated urban land expansion on species is vital for informed urban planning that minimizes biodiversity loss. Predicting habitat that will be lost to urban land expansion for over 30,000 species under three different future scenarios, we find that up to 855 species are directly threatened due to unmitigated urbanization. Our projections pinpoint rapidly urbanizing regions of sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Mesoamerica, and Southeast Asia where, without careful planning, urbanization is expected to cause particularly large biodiversity loss. Our findings highlight the urgent need for an increased focus on urban land in global conservation strategies and identify high-priority areas for this engagement.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Previsões , Urbanização
5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(39): e2112341119, 2022 09 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36122224

RESUMO

Urbanization is rapidly transforming much of Southeast Asia, altering the structure and function of the landscape, as well as the frequency and intensity of the interactions between people, animals, and the environment. In this study, we explored the impact of urbanization on zoonotic disease risk by simultaneously characterizing changes in the ecology of animal reservoirs (rodents), ectoparasite vectors (ticks), and pathogens across a gradient of urbanization in Kuching, a city in Malaysian Borneo. We sampled 863 rodents across rural, developing, and urban locations and found that rodent species diversity decreased with increasing urbanization-from 10 species in the rural location to 4 in the rural location. Notably, two species appeared to thrive in urban areas, as follows: the invasive urban exploiter Rattus rattus (n = 375) and the native urban adapter Sundamys muelleri (n = 331). R. rattus was strongly associated with built infrastructure across the gradient and carried a high diversity of pathogens, including multihost zoonoses capable of environmental transmission (e.g., Leptospira spp.). In contrast, S. muelleri was restricted to green patches where it was found at high densities and was strongly associated with the presence of ticks, including the medically important genera Amblyomma, Haemaphysalis, and Ixodes. Our analyses reveal that zoonotic disease risk is elevated and heterogeneously distributed in urban environments and highlight the potential for targeted risk reduction through pest management and public health messaging.


Assuntos
Carrapatos , Urbanização , Animais , Sudeste Asiático , Cidades , Humanos , Murinae , Ratos , Zoonoses/epidemiologia
6.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(24): e2200118119, 2022 06 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35666869

RESUMO

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global conservation and central to international plans to minimize global extinctions. During the coming century, global ecosystem destruction and fragmentation associated with increased human population and economic activity could make the long-term survival of most terrestrial vertebrates even more dependent on PAs. However, the capacity of the current global PA network to sustain species for the long term is unknown. Here, we explore this question for all nonvolant terrestrial mammals for which we found sufficient data, ∼4,000 species. We first estimate the potential population size of each such mammal species in each PA and then use three different criteria to estimate if solely the current global network of PAs might be sufficient for their long-term survival. Our analyses suggest that current PAs may fail to provide robust protection for about half the species analyzed, including most species currently listed as threatened with extinction and a third of species not currently listed as threatened. Hundreds of mammal species appear to have no viable protected populations. Underprotected species were found across all body sizes, taxonomic groups, and geographic regions. Large-bodied mammals, endemic species, and those in high-biodiversity tropical regions were particularly poorly protected by existing PAs. As new international biodiversity targets are formulated, our results suggest that the global network of PAs must be greatly expanded and most importantly that PAs must be located in diverse regions that encompass species not currently protected and must be large enough to ensure that protected species can persist for the long term.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Mamíferos , Animais , Biodiversidade , Extinção Biológica , Humanos
7.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(9)2022 03 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35165202

RESUMO

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) specifies the use of biofuels in the United States and thereby guides nearly half of all global biofuel production, yet outcomes of this keystone climate and environmental regulation remain unclear. Here we combine econometric analyses, land use observations, and biophysical models to estimate the realized effects of the RFS in aggregate and down to the scale of individual agricultural fields across the United States. We find that the RFS increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, which, in turn, expanded US corn cultivation by 2.8 Mha (8.7%) and total cropland by 2.1 Mha (2.4%) in the years following policy enactment (2008 to 2016). These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher. These tradeoffs must be weighed alongside the benefits of biofuels as decision-makers consider the future of renewable energy policies and the potential for fuels like corn ethanol to meet climate mitigation goals.

8.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(38): e2118273119, 2022 09 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36095187

RESUMO

Growing demand for minerals continues to drive deforestation worldwide. Tropical forests are particularly vulnerable to the environmental impacts of mining and mineral processing. Many local- to regional-scale studies document extensive, long-lasting impacts of mining on biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the full scope of deforestation induced by industrial mining across the tropics is yet unknown. Here, we present a biome-wide assessment to show where industrial mine expansion has caused the most deforestation from 2000 to 2019. We find that 3,264 km2 of forest was directly lost due to industrial mining, with 80% occurring in only four countries: Indonesia, Brazil, Ghana, and Suriname. Additionally, controlling for other nonmining determinants of deforestation, we find that mining caused indirect forest loss in two-thirds of the investigated countries. Our results illustrate significant yet unevenly distributed and often unmanaged impacts on these biodiverse ecosystems. Impact assessments and mitigation plans of industrial mining activities must address direct and indirect impacts to support conservation of the world's tropical forests.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Florestas , Mineração , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos
9.
Proc Biol Sci ; 291(2024): 20232771, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38864334

RESUMO

Land use change alters floral resource availability, thereby contributing to declines in important pollinators. However, the severity of land use impact varies by species, influenced by factors such as dispersal ability and resource specialization, both of which can correlate with body size. Here. we test whether floral resource availability in the surrounding landscape (the 'matrix') influences bee species' abundance in isolated remnant woodlands, and whether this effect varies with body size. We sampled quantitative flower-visitation networks within woodland remnants and quantified floral energy resources (nectar and pollen calories) available to each bee species both within the woodland and the matrix. Bee abundance in woodland increased with floral energy resources in the surrounding matrix, with strongest effects on larger-bodied species. Our findings suggest important but size-dependent effects of declining matrix floral resources on the persistence of bees in remnant woodlands, highlighting the need to incorporate landscape-level floral resources in conservation planning for pollinators in threatened natural habitats.


Assuntos
Abelhas , Tamanho Corporal , Metabolismo Energético , Florestas , Polinização , Densidade Demográfica , Abelhas/anatomia & histologia , Abelhas/metabolismo , Néctar de Plantas/metabolismo , Biodiversidade , Animais
10.
Appl Environ Microbiol ; : e0030924, 2024 Jun 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38874336

RESUMO

In the last decade, advances in soil bacterial ecology have contributed to increasing agricultural production. Brazil is the world leading agriculture producer and leading soil biodiversity reservoir. Meanwhile, there is still a significant gap in the knowledge regarding the soil microscopic life and its interactions with agricultural practices, and the replacement of natural vegetation by agroecosystems is yet to be unfolded. Through high throughput DNA sequencing, scientists are now exploring the complexity of soil bacterial communities and their relationship with soil and environmental characteristics. This study aimed to investigate the progress of bacterial ecology studies in Brazil over the last 10 years, seeking to understand the effect of the conversion of natural vegetation in agricultural systems on the diversity and structure of the soil microbial communities. We conducted a systematic search for scientific publication databases. Our systematic search has matched 62 scientific articles from three different databases. Most of the studies were placed in southeastern and northern Brazil, with no records of studies about microbial ecology in 17 out of 27 Brazilian states. Out of the 26 studies that examined the effects of replacing natural vegetation with agroecosystems, most authors concluded that changes in soil pH and vegetation cover replacement were the primary drivers of shifts in microbial communities. Understanding the ecology of the bacteria inhabiting Brazilian soils in agroecosystems is paramount for developing more efficient soil management strategies and cleaner agricultural technologies.

11.
Mol Ecol ; 33(13): e17424, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38813851

RESUMO

Climate change and land use change are two main drivers of global biodiversity decline, decreasing the genetic diversity that populations harbour and altering patterns of local adaptation. Landscape genomics allows measuring the effect of these anthropogenic disturbances on the adaptation of populations. However, both factors have rarely been considered simultaneously. Based on a set of 3660 SNPs from which 130 were identified as outliers by a genome-environment association analysis (LFMM), we modelled the spatial turnover of allele frequencies in 19 localities of Pinus leiophylla across the Avocado Belt in Michoacán state, Mexico. Then, we evaluated the effect of climate change and land use change scenarios, in addition to evaluating assisted gene flow strategies and connectivity metrics across the landscape to identify priority conservation areas for the species. We found that localities in the centre-east of the Avocado Belt would be more vulnerable to climate change, while localities in the western area are more threatened by land conversion to avocado orchards. Assisted gene flow actions could aid in mitigating both threats. Connectivity patterns among forest patches will also be modified by future habitat loss, with central and eastern parts of the Avocado Belt maintaining the highest connectivity. These results suggest that areas with the highest priority for conservation are in the eastern part of the Avocado Belt, including the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. This work is useful as a framework that incorporates distinct layers of information to provide a more robust representation of the response of tree populations to anthropogenic disturbances.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Fluxo Gênico , Persea , Pinus , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Pinus/genética , Persea/genética , México , Frequência do Gene , Adaptação Fisiológica/genética , Genética Populacional , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Variação Genética
12.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(1): e16992, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37902125

RESUMO

The EU Soil Strategy 2030 aims to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural land to enhance soil health and support biodiversity as well as to offset greenhouse gas emissions through soil carbon sequestration. Therefore, the quantification of current SOC stocks and the spatial identification of the main drivers of SOC changes is paramount in the preparation of agricultural policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems in the EU. In this context, changes of SOC stocks (Δ SOCs) for the EU + UK between 2009 and 2018 were estimated by fitting a quantile generalized additive model (qGAM) on data obtained from the revisited points of the Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) performed in 2009, 2015 and 2018. The analysis of the partial effects derived from the fitted qGAM model shows that land use and land use change observed in the 2009, 2015 and 2018 LUCAS campaigns (i.e. continuous grassland [GGG] or cropland [CCC], conversion grassland to cropland (GGC or GCC) and vice versa [CGG or CCG]) was one of the main drivers of SOC changes. The CCC was the factor that contributed to the lowest negative change on Δ SOC with an estimated partial effect of -0.04 ± 0.01 g C kg-1 year-1 , while the GGG the highest positive change with an estimated partial effect of 0.49 ± 0.02 g C kg-1 year-1 . This confirms the C sequestration potential of converting cropland to grassland. However, it is important to consider that local soil and environmental conditions may either diminish or enhance the grassland's positive effect on soil C storage. In the EU + UK, the estimated current (2018) topsoil (0-20 cm) SOC stock in agricultural land below 1000 m a.s.l was 9.3 Gt, with a Δ SOC of -0.75% in the period 2009-2018. The highest estimated SOC losses were concentrated in central-northern countries, while marginal losses were observed in the southeast.


Assuntos
Carbono , Solo , Pradaria , Agricultura , Sequestro de Carbono , Produtos Agrícolas
13.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(7): e17411, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39001641

RESUMO

Humans have substantially transformed the global land surface, resulting in the decline in variation in biotic communities across scales, a phenomenon known as "biological homogenization." However, different biota are affected by biological homogenization to varying degrees, but this variation and the underlying mechanisms remain little studied, particularly in soil systems. To address this topic, we used metabarcoding to investigate the biogeography of soil protists and their prey/hosts (prokaryotes, fungi, and meso- and macrofauna) in three human land-use ecosystem types (farmlands, residential areas, and parks) and natural forest ecosystems across subtropical and temperate regions in China. Our results showed that the degree of community homogenization largely differed between taxa and functional groups of soil protists, and was strongly and positively linked to their colonization ability of human land-use systems. Removal analysis showed that the introduction of widespread, generalist taxa (OTUs, operational taxonomic units) rather than the loss of narrow-ranged, specialist OTUs was the major cause of biological homogenization. This increase in generalist OTUs seemingly alleviated the negative impact of land use on specialist taxa, but carried the risk of losing functional diversity. Finally, homogenization of prey/host biota and environmental conditions were also important drivers of biological homogenization in human land-use systems, with their importance being more pronounced in phagotrophic than parasitic and phototrophic protists. Overall, our study showed that the variation in biological homogenization strongly depends on the colonization ability of taxa in human land-use systems, but is also affected by the homogenization of resources and environmental conditions. Importantly, biological homogenization is not the major cause of the decline in the diversity of soil protists, and conservation and study efforts should target at taxa highly sensitive to local extinction, such as parasites.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Solo , China , Solo/química , Ecossistema , Microbiologia do Solo , Atividades Humanas , Humanos , Fungos , Florestas
14.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(5): e17314, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38747309

RESUMO

Unveiling spatial variation in vegetation resilience to climate extremes can inform effective conservation planning under climate change. Although many conservation efforts are implemented on landscape scales, they often remain blind to landscape variation in vegetation resilience. We explored the distribution of drought-resilient vegetation (i.e., vegetation that could withstand and quickly recover from drought) and its predictors across a heterogeneous coastal landscape under long-term wetland conversion, through a series of high-resolution satellite image interpretations, spatial analyses, and nonlinear modelling. We found that vegetation varied greatly in drought resilience across the coastal wetland landscape and that drought-resilient vegetation could be predicted with distances to coastline and tidal channel. Specifically, drought-resilient vegetation exhibited a nearly bimodal distribution and had a seaward optimum at ~2 km from coastline (corresponding to an inundation frequency of ~30%), a pattern particularly pronounced in areas further away from tidal channels. Furthermore, we found that areas with drought-resilient vegetation were more likely to be eliminated by wetland conversion. Even in protected areas where wetland conversion was slowed, drought-resilient vegetation was increasingly lost to wetland conversion at its landward optimum in combination with rapid plant invasions at its seaward optimum. Our study highlights that the distribution of drought-resilient vegetation can be predicted using landscape features but without incorporating this predictive understanding, conservation efforts may risk failing in the face of climate extremes.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Secas , Áreas Alagadas , Plantas , Modelos Teóricos , Imagens de Satélites
15.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(4): e17280, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38613249

RESUMO

Coastal wetlands play an important role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and contribute significantly to climate change mitigation. However, climate change, reclamation, and restoration have been causing substantial changes in coastal wetland areas and carbon exchange in China during recent decades. Here we compiled a carbon flux database consisting of 15 coastal wetland sites to assess the magnitude, patterns, and drivers of carbon fluxes and to compare fluxes among contrasting natural, disturbed, and restored wetlands. The natural coastal wetlands have the average net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) of -577 g C m-2 year-1, with -821 g C m-2 year-1 for mangrove forests and -430 g C m-2 year-1 for salt marshes. There are pronounced latitudinal patterns for carbon dioxide exchange of natural coastal wetlands: NEE increased whereas gross primary production (GPP) and respiration of ecosystem decreased with increasing latitude. Distinct environmental factors drive annual variations of GPP between mangroves and salt marshes; temperature was the dominant controlling factor in salt marshes, while temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were co-dominant in mangroves. Meanwhile, both anthropogenic reclamation and restoration had substantial effects on coastal wetland carbon fluxes, and the effect of the anthropogenic perturbation in mangroves was more extensive than that in salt marshes. Furthermore, from 1980 to 2020, anthropogenic reclamation of China's coastal wetlands caused a carbon loss of ~3720 Gg C, while the mangrove restoration project during the period of 2021-2025 may switch restored coastal wetlands from a carbon source to carbon sink with a net carbon gain of 73 Gg C. The comparison of carbon fluxes among these coastal wetlands can improve our understanding of how anthropogenic perturbation can affect the potentials of coastal blue carbon in China, which has implications for informing conservation and restoration strategies and efforts of coastal wetlands.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Áreas Alagadas , Dióxido de Carbono , Ciclo do Carbono , China
16.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(1): e17019, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37987241

RESUMO

Correlative species distribution models are widely used to quantify past shifts in ranges or communities, and to predict future outcomes under ongoing global change. Practitioners confront a wide range of potentially plausible models for ecological dynamics, but most specific applications only consider a narrow set. Here, we clarify that certain model structures can embed restrictive assumptions about key sources of forecast uncertainty into an analysis. To evaluate forecast uncertainties and our ability to explain community change, we fit and compared 39 candidate multi- or joint species occupancy models to avian incidence data collected at 320 sites across California during the early 20th century and resurveyed a century later. We found massive (>20,000 LOOIC) differences in within-time information criterion across models. Poorer fitting models omitting multivariate random effects predicted less variation in species richness changes and smaller contemporary communities, with considerable variation in predicted spatial patterns in richness changes across models. The top models suggested avian environmental associations changed across time, contemporary avian occupancy was influenced by previous site-specific occupancy states, and that both latent site variables and species associations with these variables also varied over time. Collectively, our results recapitulate that simplified model assumptions not only impact predictive fit but may mask important sources of forecast uncertainty and mischaracterize the current state of system understanding when seeking to describe or project community responses to global change. We recommend that researchers seeking to make long-term forecasts prioritize characterizing forecast uncertainty over seeking to present a single best guess. To do so reliably, we urge practitioners to employ models capable of characterizing the key sources of forecast uncertainty, where predictors, parameters and random effects may vary over time or further interact with previous occurrence states.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Clima , Animais , Incerteza , Aves/fisiologia , Previsões
17.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(1): e17073, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38273546

RESUMO

A two-fold enhancement in the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) to tropical temperature interannual variability ( Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ ) till early 2000s has been reported, which suggests a drought-induced shift in terrestrial carbon cycle responding temperature fluctuations, thereby accelerating global warming. However, using six decades long atmospheric CO2 observations, we show that Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ has significantly declined in the last two decades, to the level during the 1960s. The Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ decline begs the question of whether the sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle to temperature variations at local scale has largely decreased. With state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models, we further find that the recent Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ decline is barely attributed to ecosystem carbon cycle response to temperature fluctuations at local scale, which instead results from a decrease in spatial coherence in tropical temperature variability and land use change. Our results suggest that the recently reported loss of rainforest resilience has not shown marked influence on the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle. Nevertheless, the increasing extent of land use change as well as more frequent and intensive drought events are likely to modulate the responses of ecosystem carbon cycle to temperature variations in the future. Therefore, our study highlights the priority to continuously monitor the temperature sensitivity of CGR variability and improve Earth system model representation on land use change, in order to predict the carbon-climate feedback.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Ecossistema , Temperatura , Ciclo do Carbono/fisiologia , Clima Tropical
18.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(2): e17189, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38375686

RESUMO

Terrestrial ecosystems affect climate by reflecting solar irradiation, evaporative cooling, and carbon sequestration. Yet very little is known about how plant traits affect climate regulation processes (CRPs) in different habitat types. Here, we used linear and random forest models to relate the community-weighted mean and variance values of 19 plant traits (summarized into eight trait axes) to the climate-adjusted proportion of reflected solar irradiation, evapotranspiration, and net primary productivity across 36,630 grid cells at the European extent, classified into 10 types of forest, shrubland, and grassland habitats. We found that these trait axes were more tightly linked to log evapotranspiration (with an average of 6.2% explained variation) and the proportion of reflected solar irradiation (6.1%) than to net primary productivity (4.9%). The highest variation in CRPs was explained in forest and temperate shrubland habitats. Yet, the strength and direction of these relationships were strongly habitat-dependent. We conclude that any spatial upscaling of the effects of plant communities on CRPs must consider the relative contribution of different habitat types.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Pradaria , Plantas , Clima , Processos Climáticos , Biodiversidade
19.
Malar J ; 23(1): 166, 2024 May 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38807105

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Deforestation is an important driver of malaria dynamics, with a relevant impact on mosquito ecology, including larval habitat availability, blood-feeding behaviour, and peak biting time. The latter is one of several entomological metrics to evaluate vectorial capacity and effectiveness of disease control. This study aimed to test the effect of forest cover percentage on the peak biting time of Plasmodium-uninfected and infected Nyssorhynchus darlingi females. METHODS: Mosquitoes were captured utilizing human landing catch (HLC) in the peridomestic habitat in field collections carried out in the wet, wet-dry transition, and dry seasons from 2014 to 2017 in areas with active malaria transmission in Amazonian Brazil. The study locations were in rural settlements in areas with the mean annual malaria parasite incidence (Annual Parasite Incidence, API ≥ 30). All Ny. darlingi females were tested for Plasmodium spp. infection using real time PCR technique. Forest cover percentage was calculated for each collection site using QGIS v. 2.8 and was categorized in three distinct deforestation scenarios: (1) degraded, < 30% forest cover, (2) intermediate, 30-70% forest cover, and (3) preserved, > 70% forest cover. RESULTS: The highest number of uninfected female Ny. darlingi was found in degraded landscape-sites with forest cover < 30% in any peak biting time between 18:00 and 0:00. Partially degraded landscape-sites, with (30-70%) forest cover, showed the highest number of vivax-infected females, with a peak biting time of 21:00-23:00. The number of P. falciparum-infected mosquitoes was highest in preserved sites with > 70% forest cover, a peak biting at 19:00-20:00, and in sites with 30-70% forest cover at 22:00-23:00. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study show empirically that degraded landscapes favour uninfected Ny. darlingi with a peak biting time at dusk (18:00-19:00), whereas partially degraded landscapes affect the behaviour of Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi by shifting its peak biting time towards hours after dark (21:00-23:00). In preserved sites, Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi bite around dusk (18:00-19:00) and shortly after (19:00-20:00).


Assuntos
Comportamento Alimentar , Florestas , Mosquitos Vetores , Animais , Brasil , Feminino , Mosquitos Vetores/fisiologia , Mosquitos Vetores/parasitologia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Mordeduras e Picadas de Insetos/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Malária/transmissão
20.
Ecol Appl ; 34(1): e2831, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36860184

RESUMO

Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas
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