Quantifying transmission by stage of infection in the field: the example of SIV-1 and STLV-1 infecting mandrills.

The early stage of viral infection is often followed by an important increase of viral load and is generally considered to be the most at risk for pathogen transmission. Most methods quantifying the relative importance of the different stages of infection were developed for studies aimed at measuring HIV transmission in Humans. However, they cannot be transposed to animal populations in which less information is available. Here we propose a general method to quantify the importance of the early and late stages of the infection on micro-organism transmission from field studies. The method is based on a state space dynamical model parameterized using Bayesian inference. It is illustrated by a 28 years dataset in mandrills infected by Simian Immunodeficiency Virus type-1 (SIV-1) and the Simian T-Cell Lymphotropic Virus type-1 (STLV-1). For both viruses we show that transmission is predominant during the early stage of the infection (transmission ratio for SIV-1: 1.16 [0.0009; 18.15] and 9.92 [0.03; 83.8] for STLV-1). However, in terms of basic reproductive number (R0 ), which quantifies the weight of both stages in the spread of the virus, the results suggest that the epidemics of SIV-1 and STLV-1 are mainly driven by late transmissions in this population.

Modes of transmission of Simian T-lymphotropic Virus Type 1 in semi-captive mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx).

Non-human primates (NHPs) often live in inaccessible areas, have cryptic behaviors, and are difficult to follow in the wild. Here, we present a study on the spread of the simian T-lymphotropic Virus Type 1 (STLV-1), the simian counterpart of the human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) in a semi-captive mandrill colony. This study combines 28 years of longitudinal monitoring, including behavioral data, with a dynamic mathematical model and Bayesian inference. Three transmission modes were suspected: aggressive, sexual and familial. Our results show that among males, STLV-1 transmission occurs preferentially via aggression. Because of their impressive aggressive behavior male mandrills can easily transmit the virus during fights. On the contrary, sexual activity seems to have little effect. Thus transmission appears to occur primarily via male-male and female-female contact. In addition, for young mandrills, familial transmission appears to play an important role in virus spread.