Satellite mapping reveals extensive industrial activity at sea.

The world's population increasingly relies on the ocean for food, energy production and global trade1-3, yet human activities at sea are not well quantified4,5. We combine satellite imagery, vessel GPS data and deep-learning models to map industrial vessel activities and offshore energy infrastructure across the world's coastal waters from 2017 to 2021. We find that 72-76% of the world's industrial fishing vessels are not publicly tracked, with much of that fishing taking place around South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. We also find that 21-30% of transport and energy vessel activity is missing from public tracking systems. Globally, fishing decreased by 12 ± 1% at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and had not recovered to pre-pandemic levels by 2021. By contrast, transport and energy vessel activities were relatively unaffected during the same period. Offshore wind is growing rapidly, with most wind turbines confined to small areas of the ocean but surpassing the number of oil structures in 2021. Our map of ocean industrialization reveals changes in some of the most extensive and economically important human activities at sea.

Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020.

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns1. Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr-1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr-1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns2. From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings3,4, our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge5.

Global-scale human impact on delta morphology has led to net land area gain.

River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. Even in the absence of sea-level rise, deltas are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards as declining sediment supply and climate change alter their sediment budget, affecting delta morphology and possibly leading to erosion1-3. However, the relationship between deltaic sediment budgets, oceanographic forces of waves and tides, and delta morphology has remained poorly quantified. Here we show how the morphology of about 11,000 coastal deltas worldwide, ranging from small bayhead deltas to mega-deltas, has been affected by river damming and deforestation. We introduce a model that shows that present-day delta morphology varies across a continuum between wave (about 80 per cent), tide (around 10 per cent) and river (about 10 per cent) dominance, but that most large deltas are tide- and river-dominated. Over the past 30 years, despite sea-level rise, deltas globally have experienced a net land gain of 54 ± 12 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations), with the largest 1 per cent of deltas being responsible for 30 per cent of all net land area gains. Humans are a considerable driver of these net land gains-25 per cent of delta growth can be attributed to deforestation-induced increases in fluvial sediment supply. Yet for nearly 1,000 deltas, river damming4 has resulted in a severe (more than 50 per cent) reduction in anthropogenic sediment flux, forcing a collective loss of 12 ± 3.5 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations) of deltaic land. Not all deltas lose land in response to river damming: deltas transitioning towards tide dominance are currently gaining land, probably through channel infilling. With expected accelerated sea-level rise5, however, recent land gains are unlikely to be sustained throughout the twenty-first century. Understanding the redistribution of sediments by waves and tides will be critical for successfully predicting human-driven change to deltas, both locally and globally.

Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events.

There is no consensus on whether climate change has yet affected the statistics of tropical cyclones, owing to their large natural variability and the limited period of consistent observations. In addition, projections of future tropical cyclone activity are uncertain, because they often rely on coarse-resolution climate models that parameterize convection and hence have difficulty in directly representing tropical cyclones. Here we used convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate whether and how recent destructive tropical cyclones would change if these events had occurred in pre-industrial and in future climates. We found that, relative to pre-industrial conditions, climate change so far has enhanced the average and extreme rainfall of hurricanes Katrina, Irma and Maria, but did not change tropical cyclone wind-speed intensity. In addition, future anthropogenic warming would robustly increase the wind speed and rainfall of 11 of 13 intense tropical cyclones (of 15 events sampled globally). Additional regional climate model simulations suggest that convective parameterization introduces minimal uncertainty into the sign of projected changes in tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall, which allows us to have confidence in projections from global models with parameterized convection and resolution fine enough to include tropical cyclones.

Global land change from 1982 to 2016.

Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change1,2. Changes in land use and land cover considerably alter the Earth's energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, which contributes to climate change and-in turn-affects land surface properties and the provision of ecosystem services1-4. However, quantification of global land change is lacking. Here we analyse 35 years' worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982-2016. We show that-contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally5-tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 (-3.1%), most notably in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change. Land-use change exhibits regional dominance, including tropical deforestation and agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation or afforestation, cropland intensification and urbanization. Consistently across all climate domains, montane systems have gained tree cover and many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have lost vegetation cover. The mapped land changes and the driver attributions reflect a human-dominated Earth system. The dataset we developed may be used to improve the modelling of land-use changes, biogeochemical cycles and vegetation-climate interactions to advance our understanding of global environmental change1-4,6.

Insect-mediated apparent competition between mammals in a boreal food web.

While the important role of animal-mediated interactions in the top-down restructuring of plant communities is well documented, less is known of their ensuing repercussions at higher trophic levels. We demonstrate how typically decoupled ecological interactions may become intertwined such that the impact of an insect pest on forest structure and composition alters predator-prey interactions among large mammals. Specifically, we show how irruptions in a common, cyclic insect pest of the boreal forest, the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), modulated an indirect trophic interaction by initiating a flush in deciduous vegetation that benefited moose (Alces alces), in turn strengthening apparent competition between moose and threatened boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) via wolf (Canis lupus) predation. Critically, predation on caribou postoutbreak was exacerbated by human activity (salvage logging). We believe our observations of significant, large-scale reverberating consumer-producer-consumer interactions are likely to be common in nature.

Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

The heart of Detroit study: a window into urban middle-aged and older African Americans' daily lives to understand psychosocial determinants of cardiovascular disease risk.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease disproportionately affects African Americans. Psychosocial factors, including the experience of and emotional reactivity to racism and interpersonal stressors, contribute to the etiology and progression of cardiovascular disease through effects on health behaviors, stress-responsive neuroendocrine axes, and immune processes. The full pathway and complexities of these associations remain underexamined in African Americans. The Heart of Detroit Study aims to identify and model the biopsychosocial pathways that influence cardiovascular disease risk in a sample of urban middle-aged and older African American adults. METHODS: The proposed sample will be composed of 500 African American adults between the ages of 55 and 75 from the Detroit urban area. This longitudinal study will consist of two waves of data collection, two years apart. Biomarkers of stress, inflammation, and cardiovascular surrogate endpoints (i.e., heart rate variability and blood pressure) will be collected at each wave. Ecological momentary assessments will characterize momentary and daily experiences of stress, affect, and health behaviors during the first wave. A proposed subsample of 60 individuals will also complete an in-depth qualitative interview to contextualize quantitative results. The central hypothesis of this project is that interpersonal stressors predict poor cardiovascular outcomes, cumulative physiological stress, poor sleep, and inflammation by altering daily affect, daily health behaviors, and daily physiological stress. DISCUSSION: This study will provide insight into the biopsychosocial pathways through which experiences of stress and discrimination increase cardiovascular disease risk over micro and macro time scales among urban African American adults. Its discoveries will guide the design of future contextualized, time-sensitive, and culturally tailored behavioral interventions to reduce racial disparities in cardiovascular disease risk.

Detecting behavioural changes in human movement to inform the spatial scale of interventions against COVID-19.

On March 23 2020, the UK enacted an intensive, nationwide lockdown to mitigate transmission of COVID-19. As restrictions began to ease, more localized interventions were used to target resurgences in transmission. Understanding the spatial scale of networks of human interaction, and how these networks change over time, is critical to targeting interventions at the most at-risk areas without unnecessarily restricting areas at low risk of resurgence. We use detailed human mobility data aggregated from Facebook users to determine how the spatially-explicit network of movements changed before and during the lockdown period, in response to the easing of restrictions, and to the introduction of locally-targeted interventions. We also apply community detection techniques to the weighted, directed network of movements to identify geographically-explicit movement communities and measure the evolution of these community structures through time. We found that the mobility network became more sparse and the number of mobility communities decreased under the national lockdown, a change that disproportionately affected long distance connections central to the mobility network. We also found that the community structure of areas in which locally-targeted interventions were implemented following epidemic resurgence did not show reorganization of community structure but did show small decreases in indicators of travel outside of local areas. We propose that communities detected using Facebook or other mobility data be used to assess the impact of spatially-targeted restrictions and may inform policymakers about the spatial extent of human movement patterns in the UK. These data are available in near real-time, allowing quantification of changes in the distribution of the population across the UK, as well as changes in travel patterns to inform our understanding of the impact of geographically-targeted interventions.

The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and therefore has an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate. Anthropogenic activities such as land-use change, agriculture and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes, and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate change. The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively, but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, and process-based modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981 and 2010 resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions is a factor of about two larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land carbon dioxide uptake from 2001 to 2010. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three greenhouse gases on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate (in petagrams of CO2 equivalent per year) of 3.9 ± 3.8 (top down) and 5.4 ± 4.8 (bottom up) based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly in Southern Asia, may help mitigate climate change.

Historical records reveal the distinctive associations of human disturbance and extreme climate change with local extinction of mammals.

Accelerated anthropogenic impacts and climatic changes are widely considered to be responsible for unprecedented species extinction. However, determining their effects on extinction is challenging owing to the lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, using historical occurrence records of 11 medium- to large-sized mammal species or groups of species in China from 905 BC to AD 2006, we quantified the distinctive associations of anthropogenic stressors (represented by cropland coverage and human population density) and climatic stressors (represented by air temperature) with the local extinction of these mammals. We found that both intensified human disturbances and extreme climate change were associated with the increased local extinction of the study mammals. In the cold phase (the premodern period of China), climate cooling was positively associated with increased local extinction, while in the warm phase (the modern period) global warming was associated with increased local extinction. Interactive effects between human disturbance and temperature change with the local extinction of elephants, rhinos, pandas, and water deer were found. Large-sized mammals, such as elephants, rhinos, and pandas, showed earlier and larger population declines than small-sized ones. The local extinction sensitivities of these mammals to the human population density and standardized temperature were estimated during 1700 to 2000. The quantitative evidence for anthropogenic and climatic associations with mammalian extinction provided insights into the driving processes of species extinction, which has important implications for biodiversity conservation under accelerating global changes.

The use of respondent­driven sampling to assess febrile illness treatment-seeking behaviours among forest-goers in Cambodia and Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Countries in the Greater Mekong sub-region (GMS) aim to eliminate all forms of malaria by 2030. In Cambodia and Vietnam, forest-goers are at an increased risk of malaria. Universal access to prompt diagnosis and treatment is a core malaria intervention. This can only be achieved by understanding the healthcare-seeking behaviour among the most vulnerable groups and eliminating barriers to prompt and effective treatment. This study aimed to explore healthcare-seeking behaviours for febrile illness among populations at risk for malaria in Cambodia and Vietnam. METHODS: In 2019, researchers from Population Services International (PSI) conducted a population-based survey of forest-goers in Cambodia and Vietnam using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) In Cambodia two operational districts, Oral and Phnom Srouch in Kampong Speu Province were included in the study. In Vietnam, communes located within 15 km of the forest edge in Binh Phuoc and Gia Lai Provinces were selected. Adults who had spent at least one night per week or four nights per month in the forest over the previous three months were eligible for the study. RESULTS: Some 75% of forest-goers in Cambodia and 65% in Vietnam sought treatment for illness outside the home. In Cambodia, 39% sought treatment from the private sector, 32% from community health workers, and 24% from public health facilities. In Vietnam, 62% sought care from community facilities, 29.3% from the private sector, and 6.9% went to a public facility. Among forest-goers who sought care, 33% in Cambodia and 52% in Vietnam did so within 24 h. CONCLUSIONS: This study is consistent with others that show that early diagnosis and treatment of malaria remains an obstacle to malaria elimination. This study also demonstrates that there are gaps in timeliness of care seeking among forest-goers. The findings from this study around provider preference and delays in treatment-seeking can be used to strengthen the design and targeting of malaria interventions and social and behaviour change strategies to accelerate malaria elimination in Cambodia and Vietnam.

Seasons, weather, and device-measured movement behaviors: a scoping review from 2006 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: This scoping review summarized research on (a) seasonal differences in physical activity and sedentary behavior, and (b) specific weather indices associated with those behaviors. METHODS: PubMed, CINAHL, and SPORTDiscus were searched to identify relevant studies. After identifying and screening 1459 articles, data were extracted from 110 articles with 118,189 participants from 30 countries (almost exclusively high-income countries) on five continents. RESULTS: Both physical activity volume and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were greater in summer than winter. Sedentary behavior was greater in winter than either spring or summer, and insufficient evidence existed to draw conclusions about seasonal differences in light physical activity. Physical activity volume and MVPA duration were positively associated with both the photoperiod and temperature, and negatively associated with precipitation. Sedentary behavior was negatively associated with photoperiod and positively associated with precipitation. Insufficient evidence existed to draw conclusions about light physical activity and specific weather indices. Many weather indices have been neglected in this literature (e.g., air quality, barometric pressure, cloud coverage, humidity, snow, visibility, windchill). CONCLUSIONS: The natural environment can influence health by facilitating or inhibiting physical activity. Behavioral interventions should be sensitive to potential weather impacts. Extreme weather conditions brought about by climate change may compromise health-enhancing physical activity in the short term and, over longer periods of time, stimulate human migration in search of more suitable environmental niches.

Determinants of participation and quality of life of young adults with cerebral palsy: longitudinal approach and comparison with the general population - SPARCLE 3 study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Effective inclusion in society for young people with disabilities is increasingly seen as generating opportunities for self-development, and improving well-being. However, significant barriers remain in the vast majority of activities meaningful for young adults. Research argues that various personal (disabilities, health) and environmental (access to the resources needed, accessible environment, discrimination, lack of personal economic independence) factors contribute to limited participation. However, previous studies conducted in young people with cerebral palsy (CP) mainly investigated the transition period to adulthood, and did not fully consider the whole range of impairment severity profiles or environmental barriers. In this study, we will use the follow-up of the SPARCLE cohort and a comparison group from the general population (1) to investigate the impact of the environment on participation and quality of life of young adults with CP, (2) to determine predictors of a successful young adulthood in educational, professional, health and social fields, (3) to compare quality of life and frequency of participation in social, work and recreational activities with the general population, (4) to document on participation and quality of life in those with severe disabilities. METHODS: The SPARCLE3 study has a combined longitudinal and cross-sectional design. Young adults with CP aged 22 to 27 years in 6 European regions previously enrolled in the SPARCLE cohort or newly recruited will be invited to self-complete a comprehensive set of questionnaires exploring participation (daily life and discretionary activities), health-related quality of life, body function, personal factors (health, personal resources), and contextual factors (availability of needed environmental items, family environment, services provision) during home visits supervised by trained researchers. Proxy-reports or adapted questionnaires will be used for those with the most severe impairments. The recruitment of a large group from the general population (online survey) will enable to identify life areas where the discrepancies between young people with CP and their able-bodied peers are the most significant. DISCUSSION: This study will help identify to what extent disabilities and barriers in environment negatively affect participation and quality of life, and how previous valued experiences during childhood or adolescence might modulate these effects.

Societal activities associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a case-control study in Denmark, November 2020.

Identification of societal activities associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection may provide an evidence base for implementing preventive measures. Here, we investigated potential determinants for infection in Denmark in a situation where society was only partially open. We conducted a national matched case-control study. Cases were recent RT-PCR test-positives, while controls, individually matched on age, sex and residence, had not previously tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Questions concerned person contact and community exposures. Telephone interviews were performed over a 7-day period in December 2020. We included 300 cases and 317 controls and determined odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) by conditional logistical regression with adjustment for household size and country of origin. Contact (OR 4.9, 95% CI 2.4-10) and close contact (OR 13, 95% CI 6.7-25) with a person with a known SARS-CoV-2 infection were main determinants. Contact most often took place in the household or work place. Community determinants included events with singing (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-4.1), attending fitness centres (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.8) and consumption of alcohol in a bar (OR 10, 95% CI 1.5-65). Other community exposures appeared not to be associated with infection, these included shopping at supermarkets, travel by public transport, dining at restaurants and private social events with few participants. Overall, the restrictions in place at the time of the study appeared to be sufficient to reduce transmission of disease in the public space, which instead largely took place following direct exposures to people with known SARS-CoV-2 infections.