Improved pediatric ICU mortality prediction for respiratory diseases: machine learning and data subdivision insights.

The growing concern of pediatric mortality demands heightened preparedness in clinical settings, especially within intensive care units (ICUs). As respiratory-related admissions account for a substantial portion of pediatric illnesses, there is a pressing need to predict ICU mortality in these cases. This study based on data from 1188 patients, addresses this imperative using machine learning techniques and investigating different class balancing methods for pediatric ICU mortality prediction. This study employs the publicly accessible "Paediatric Intensive Care database" to train, validate, and test a machine learning model for predicting pediatric patient mortality. Features were ranked using three machine learning feature selection techniques, namely Random Forest, Extra Trees, and XGBoost, resulting in the selection of 16 critical features from a total of 105 features. Ten machine learning models and ensemble techniques are used to make accurate mortality predictions. To tackle the inherent class imbalance in the dataset, we applied a unique data partitioning technique to enhance the model's alignment with the data distribution. The CatBoost machine learning model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 72.22%, while the stacking ensemble model yielded an AUC of 60.59% for mortality prediction. The proposed subdivision technique, on the other hand, provides a significant improvement in performance metrics, with an AUC of 85.2% and an accuracy of 89.32%. These findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in enhancing pediatric mortality prediction and inform strategies for improved ICU readiness.

Demographic and geographical trends in chronic lower respiratory diseases mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2020.

Chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) related mortality has decreased in the United States due to increasing awareness in the general population and advancing preventative efforts, diagnostic measures, and treatment. However, demographic and regional differences still persist throughout the United States. In this study, we analyzed the temporal trends of demographic and geographical differences in CLRD-related mortality. Data was extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Using this data, age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 people (AAMR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to determine mortality trends between 1999 and 2020 based on demographic and regional groups.During this study period, there were 3,064,049 CLRD-related deaths, with most demographics and regional areas showing an overall decreasing trend. However, higher mortality rates were seen in the non-Hispanic White population and rural areas. Interestingly, mortality rates witnessed a decreasing trend for males throughout the study duration compared to females, who only began to show decreases in mortality during the latter half of the 2010s. Using these results, one can target efforts and build policies to improve CLRD-related mortality and reduce disparities in the coming decades.

Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of chronic respiratory diseases mortality among adults: evidence from a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to determine the relationships between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and risk of mortality due to chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) overall, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer. METHODS: A total of 96,607 participants aged 55 years and over were included from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer trial. Dietary intake was measured using food frequency questionnaire. Cox regression was fitted to estimate the risk of all-cause mortality and mortality due to CRDs overall, COPD and lung cancer associated with UPF intake. Competing risk regression was used to account for deaths from other causes and censoring. RESULTS: During the follow-up of 1,379,655.5 person-years (median 16.8 years), 28,700 all-cause, 4092 CRDs, 2015 lung cancer and 1,536 COPD mortality occurred. A higher intake of UPF increased the risk of mortality from CRDs overall by 10% (HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01, 1.22) and COPD by 26% (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.06, 1.49) but not associated with lung cancer mortality risk (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.84, 1.12). However, the risk of lung cancer increased by 16% (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.34) in the highest UPF intake after multiple imputation. Dose-response relationships existed for CRDs and COPD mortality but not lung cancer. CONCLUSION: UPF consumption was associated with an increased risk of CRD mortality. The association between UPF consumption and lung cancer mortality is inconclusive and only significant when multiple imputation was applied.

Health impact assessment of PM2.5 from uncovered coal trains in the San Francisco Bay Area: Implications for global exposures.

Coal generates almost 40% of the world's electricity with 80 countries throughout the world using coal power. An inherent part of this generation is the rail transport of coal in uncovered cars, often up to a mile long. Existing studies document the subsequent increments of PM2.5 to the near-rail populations, which typically include a large number of economically disadvantaged residents and/or people of color. However, to date there is no assessment of the health implications of this stage in the use of coal. The present study quantifies such impacts on a region in the San Francisco Bay Area. The analysis shows important effects on mortality, hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease, asthma exacerbation, work loss, and days of restricted activity. Several of these outcomes exhibited a one to six percent increase over baseline. As such, it delineates the implications for the global effects of the transport of coal.

Symptom burden, service use and care dissatisfaction among older adults with cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dementia and neurological disease during the last 3 months before death: A pooled analysis of mortality follow-back surveys.

BACKGROUND: Variation in the provision of care and outcomes in the last months of life by cancer and non-cancer conditions is poorly understood. AIMS: (1) To describe patient conditions, symptom burden, practical problems, service use and dissatisfaction with end-of-life care for older adults based on the cause of death. (2) To explore factors related to these variables focussing on the causes of death. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of pooled data using cross-sectional mortality follow-back surveys from three studies: QUALYCARE; OPTCare Elderly; and International Access, Right, and Empowerment 1. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Data reported by bereaved relatives of people aged ⩾75 years who died of cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dementia or neurological disease. RESULTS: The pooled dataset contained 885 responses. Overall, service use and circumstances surrounding death differed significantly across causes of death. Bereaved relatives reported symptom severity from moderate to overwhelming in over 30% of cases for all causes of death. Across all causes of death, 28%-38% of bereaved relatives reported some level of dissatisfaction with care. Patients with cardiovascular disease and dementia experienced lower symptom burden and dissatisfaction than those with cancer. The absence of a reliable key health professional was consistently associated with higher symptom burden (p = 0.002), practical problems (p = 0.001) and dissatisfaction with care (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We showed different trajectories towards death depending on cause. Improving symptom burden and satisfaction in patients at the end-of-life is challenging, and the presence of a reliable key health professional may be helpful.

The impacts of extreme heat events on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: An analysis of 12 Canadian cities from 2000 to 2020.

Background: Extreme heat has significant impacts on mortality. In Canada, past research has analyzed the degree to which non-accidental mortality increases during single extreme heat events; however, few studies have considered multiple causes of death and the impacts of extreme heat events on mortality over longer time periods. Data and methods: Daily death counts attributable to non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory causes were retrieved for the 12 most populous cities in Canada from 2000 to 2020. Generalized additive models were applied to quantify daily mortality risks for people aged younger than 65 years and for those aged 65 years and older in each city and for each cause of death. Model results were used to calculate the change in mortality risks and the number of excess deaths attributable to extreme heat during extreme heat events. Results: Elevated mortality risks were observed during extreme heat events in most cities for non-accidental and respiratory causes. The impacts of extreme heat on non-accidental mortality were typically greater for people aged 65 and older than for those aged younger than 65. Significantly higher non-accidental mortality risks were observed during extreme heat events for people aged 65 and older in Montréal, the city of Québec, Surrey, and Toronto. For cardiovascular and respiratory causes, people aged 65 and older had significantly higher mortality risks during extreme heat events in Montréal, and both Montréal and Toronto, respectively. In the 12 cities, approximately 670 excess non-accidental deaths, 115 excess cardiovascular deaths, and 115 excess respiratory deaths were attributable to extreme heat events during the study period. Mortality risks during extreme heat events were generally higher in cities with larger proportions of renter households and fewer extreme heat events. Interpretation: This study estimates the longer-term impacts of extreme heat events on three mortality outcomes in a set of large Canadian cities. As climate change causes more frequent and intense extreme heat events, and as policy makers aim to reduce the health impacts of heat, it is important to understand how and where extreme heat affects health.

Long-term exposure to elemental components of fine particulate matter and all-natural and cause-specific mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a well-recognized risk factor for premature death. However, evidence on which PM2.5 components are most relevant is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated the associations between mortality and long-term exposure to eight PM2.5 elemental components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si), and potassium (K)]. Studied outcomes included death from diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and psychiatric disorders as well as all-natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD), and lung cancer. We followed all residents in Denmark (aged ≥30 years) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We used European-wide land-use regression models at a 100 × 100 m scale to estimate the residential annual mean levels of exposure to PM2.5 components. The models were developed with supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The associations were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors and total PM2.5 mass. RESULTS: Of 3,081,244 individuals, we observed 803,373 death from natural causes during follow-up. We found significant positive associations between all-natural mortality with Si and K from both exposure modeling approaches (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals per interquartile range increase): SLR-Si (1.04; 1.03-1.05), RF-Si (1.01; 1.00-1.02), SLR-K (1.03; 1.02-1.04), and RF-K (1.06; 1.05-1.07). Strong associations of K and Si were detected with most causes of mortality except CKD and K, and diabetes and Si (the strongest associations for psychiatric disorders mortality). In addition, Fe was relevant for mortality from RD, lung cancer, CKD, and psychiatric disorders; Zn with mortality from CKD, RD, and lung cancer, and; Ni and V with lung cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We present novel results of the relevance of different PM2.5 components for different causes of death, with K and Si seeming to be most consistently associated with mortality in Denmark.

[Disease burden and risk factors of chronic respiratory diseases in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019].

Objective: To analyze the prevalence and the trend of the disease burden of chronic respiratory diseases and relevant risk factors in Jiangsu province from 1990 to 2019 and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of chronic respiratory diseases. Methods: The data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD2019) were used to calculate the prevalence rate, mortality rate and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate. Software Joinpoint was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate. The population attributable fractions (PAF) were used to estimate the proportion of chronic respiratory disease caused by different risk factors. Results: In 1990 and 2019, the prevalence rates of chronic respiratory diseases were 4.83% and 5.45%. The mortality rates were 134.91/100 000 and 80.99/100 000 respectively, and the DALY rates were 2 678.52/100 000 and 1 534.31/100 000 respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate in Jiangsu showed a significant downward trend (AAPC values were -0.90%, -5.28% and -4.70% respectively, P<0.05). Tobacco use was the leading cause of chronic respiratory diseases, followed by air pollution, occupational exposure, suboptimal temperature and high BMI. Compared with 1990, the proportion of DALYs of chronic respiratory diseases attributable to tobacco use and high BMI increased in 2019. Conclusion: The overall burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Jiangsu shows a downward trend. Prevention and health education should be focused on the population with a smoking history and high BMI. At the same time, environmental management, attention to suboptimal temperature and control of occupational exposure factors should also be adopted as important means to prevent and control chronic respiratory diseases.

Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation, and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Deaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.

Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities.

BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 µg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).

Consumption of coffee and tea with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggested that moderate coffee and tea consumption are associated with lower risk of mortality. However, the association between the combination of coffee and tea consumption with the risk of mortality remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the separate and combined associations of coffee and tea consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 498,158 participants (37-73 years) from the UK Biobank between 2006 and 2010. Coffee and tea consumption were assessed at baseline using a self-reported questionnaire. All-cause and cause-specific mortalities, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, and digestive disease mortality, were obtained from the national death registries. Cox regression analyses were conducted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 34,699 deaths were identified. The associations of coffee and tea consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality attributable to CVD, respiratory disease, and digestive disease were nonlinear (all P nonlinear < 0.001). The association between separate coffee consumption and the risk of all-cause mortality was J-shaped, whereas that of separate tea consumption was reverse J-shaped. Drinking one cup of coffee or three cups of tea per day seemed to link with the lowest risk of mortality. In joint analyses, compared to neither coffee nor tea consumption, the combination of < 1-2 cups/day of coffee and 2-4 cups/day of tea had lower mortality risks for all-cause (HR, 0.78; 95% CI: 0.73-0.85), CVD (HR, 0.76; 95% CI: 0.64-0.91), and respiratory disease (HR, 0.69; 95% CI: 0.57-0.83) mortality. Nevertheless, the lowest HR (95% CI) of drinking both < 1-2 cup/day of coffee and ≥ 5 cups/day of tea for digestive disease mortality was 0.42 (0.34-0.53). CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study, separate and combined coffee and tea consumption were inversely associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Respiratory-related death in individuals with incident asthma and COPD: a competing risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: Distinguishing between mortality attributed to respiratory causes and other causes among people with asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) is important. This study used electronic health records in England to estimate excess risk of death from respiratory-related causes after accounting for other causes of death. METHODS: We used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care and Office for National Statistics mortality data to identify adults with asthma and COPD from 2005 to 2015. Causes of death were ascertained using death certificates. Hazard ratios (HR) and excess risk of death were estimated using Fine-Gray competing risk models and adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, body mass index and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: 65,021 people with asthma and 45,649 with COPD in the CPRD dataset were frequency matched 5:1 with people without the disease on age, sex and general practice. Only 14 in 100,000 people with asthma are predicted to experience a respiratory-related death up to 10 years post-diagnosis, whereas in COPD this is 98 in 100,000. Asthma is associated with an 0.01% excess incidence of respiratory related mortality whereas COPD is associated with an 0.07% excess. Among people with asthma-COPD overlap (N = 22,145) we observed an increased risk of respiratory-related death compared to those with asthma alone (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.21-1.40) but not COPD alone (HR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.83-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Asthma and COPD are associated with an increased risk of respiratory-related death after accounting for other causes; however, diagnosis of COPD carries a much higher probability. ACO is associated with a lower risk compared to COPD alone but higher risk compared to asthma alone.

NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4.

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, and to promote mental health and wellbeing. We used data on cause-specific mortality to characterise the risk and trends in NCD mortality in each country and evaluate combinations of reductions in NCD causes of death that can achieve SDG target 3.4. Among NCDs, ischaemic heart disease is responsible for the highest risk of premature death in more than half of all countries for women, and more than three-quarters for men. However, stroke, other cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers are associated with a similar risk, and in many countries, a higher risk of premature death than ischaemic heart disease. Although premature mortality from NCDs is declining in most countries, for most the pace of change is too slow to achieve SDG target 3.4. To investigate the options available to each country for achieving SDG target 3.4, we considered different scenarios, each representing a combination of fast (annual rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries) and average (median of all countries) declines in risk of premature death from NCDs. Pathways analysis shows that every country has options for achieving SDG target 3.4. No country could achieve the target by addressing a single disease. In at least half the countries, achieving the target requires improvements in the rate of decline in at least five causes for women and in at least seven causes for men to the same rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries. Tobacco and alcohol control and effective health-system interventions-including hypertension and diabetes treatment; primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk individuals; low-dose inhaled corticosteroids and bronchodilators for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; treatment of acute cardiovascular diseases, diabetes complications, and exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and effective cancer screening and treatment-will reduce NCD causes of death necessary to achieve SDG target 3.4 in most countries.

Effects of the implementation of a mass rapid transit system on mortality rates attributed to cardiorespiratory complications in Taipei.

Although Taipei City has encountered a fall in ambient air pollutant levels since 1996, the year its mass rapid transit (MRT) system commenced operation, no apparent study investigated changes in risks of death attributed to respiratory, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular diseases in Taipei during this 23-year period. In order to examine the relationship between MRT and occurrence of respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses attributed to air contaminants, exposure over the 23 year duration was subdivided into the following periods: reference period 1 (1992-1995); period 2 (1996-2004), a time when there was a total track length of 67 km; period 3 (2005-2015), when the total track length was lengthened to 131.1 km; and period 4 (2016-2020), when it was further extended to 146.2 km. Taichung City, no MRT system, was used as an external reference population. The effect of Taipei's MRT system on rates of cause-specific death rates was analyzed using robust generalized Poisson regression models. After adjusting for age-standardized rates (ASRs), a decrease in relative risks (RRs) was found for non-trauma death and respiratory disease from periods 2 to 4. Even though the RRs were greater than 1.0 for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases for periods 2 to 4, a downward trend was still noted in these RRs in Taipei. These findings suggest a relationship exists between air pollutant exposure and mortality. In addition, data demonstrated that implementation of the MRT in Taipei exerted beneficial health effects as evidenced by lower mortality rates.

Patient participation and associated factors in the discussions on do-not-attempt-resuscitation and end-of-life disclosure: a retrospective chart review study.

BACKGROUND: Patient participation is a key foundation of advance care planning (ACP). However, a patient himself/herself may be left out from sensitive conversations such as end-of-life (EOL) care discussions. The objectives of this study were to investigate patients' participation rate in the discussion of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) / Do-Not-Attempt-Resuscitation (DNAR) order, and in the discussion that the patient is at his/her EOL stage (EOL disclosure), and to explore their associated factors. METHODS: This is a retrospective chart review study. The participants were all the patients who were hospitalized and died in a university-affiliated teaching hospital (tertiary medical facility) in central Tokyo, Japan during the period from April 2018 to March 2019. The following patients were excluded: (1) cardiopulmonary arrest on arrival; (2) stillbirth; (3) under 18 years old at the time of death; and (4) refusal by their bereaved family. Presence or absence of CPR/DNAR discussion and EOL disclosure, patients' involvement in those discussions, and their associated factors were investigated. RESULTS: CPR/DNAR discussions were observed in 336 out of the 358 patients (93.9%). However, 224 of these discussions were carried out without a patient (patient participation rate 33.3%). Male gender (odds ratio (OR) = 2.37 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-4.25]), living alone (OR = 2.51 [1.34-4.71]), and 1 year or more from the date of diagnosis (OR = 1.78 [1.03-3.10]) were associated with higher patient's participation in CPR/DNAR discussions. The EOL disclosure was observed in 341 out of the 358 patients (95.3%). However, 170 of the discussions were carried out without the patient (patient participation rate 50.1%). Patients who died of cancer (OR = 2.41[1.45-4.03]) and patients without mental illness (OR=2.41 [1.11-5.25]) were more likely to participate in EOL disclosure. CONCLUSIONS: In this clinical sample, only up to half of the patients participated in CPR/DNAR discussions and EOL disclosure. Female, living with family, a shorter period from the diagnosis, non-cancer, and mental illness presence are risk factors for lack of patients' participation in CPR/DNAR or EOL discussions. Further attempts to facilitate patients' participation, based on their preference, are warranted.

Short-term effects of ambient temperature and pollutants on the mortality of respiratory diseases: A time-series analysis in Hefei, China.

BACKGROUND: The air pollution has become an important environmental health problem due to its adverse health effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of ambient temperature and pollutants on mortality of respiratory diseases (RD) in Hefei, China, a typical inland city. METHODS: Nonlinear exposure-response dependencies and delayed effects of urban daily mean temperature (DMT) and pollutants were evaluated by distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). To further explore this effect, different genders and ages were also examined by stratified analysis. RESULTS: A total of 12876 deaths from RD were collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2018 in Hefei, China. There was a U-shaped correlation between DMT and RD mortality, and the RD mortality rised by 11.6% (95% CI: 2.2-22.0%) when the DMT was 35.8 °C (reference temperature is 20 °C). The results show that risk of death with short-term exposure to elevated concentrations of PM10 and SO2 was not significant. The maximum hysteresis and cumulative relative risk (RR) of RD mortality were 1.012 (95% CI: 1.003 ~ 1.021, lag 0 day) and 1.072 (95% CI: 1.014 ~1.133, lag 10 days) for each 10 µg/m3 augment in NO2; 1.005 (95% CI: 1.001-1.009, lag 0 day) and 1.027 (95% CI: 1.004-1.051, lag 10 days) for each 10 µg/m3 augment in O3; a negative association between CO exposure and the cumulative risk of death was observed (RR = 0.964, 95% CI: 0.935-0.993, lag 07 days). Subgroup analysis showed the effect of high temperatures, NO2, O3 and CO exposure was still statistically significant for the elderly and male. CONCLUSION: The present study found that short-term exposure to high temperature, NO2, O3 and CO were significantly associated with the risk of RD mortality and male as well as elderly are more susceptible to these factors.

The short-term effect of PM2.5/O3 on daily mortality from 2013 to 2018 in Hefei, China.

This research intends to explore the short-term impacts of PM2.5/O3 on daily death in Hefei from 2013 to 2018. Data on daily death of Hefei residents, meteorological factors, and air pollutants were collected from Jan 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2018. The correlation between PM2.5/O3 and daily death in Hefei during the research period was studied by time series analysis. From 2013 to 2018, there were 61,683 non-accidental deaths, including 27,431 cardiovascular deaths, 5587 respiratory deaths, 20,921 malignant tumor deaths, and 1674 diabetes deaths, in Hefei. Annual mean concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO, and O3 in Hefei were 66.18, 92.37, 39.75, 15.39, 930, and 79.08 µg m-3, respectively. An increase of 10 µg m-3 in PM2.5 was related with 0.53% (95% CI 0.31-0.75%), 0.93% (95% CI 0.60-1.26%), 0.90% and (95% CI 0.23-1.57%) increase in non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases mortality, respectively. The association between ozone and mortality was not significant. In cold seasons, PM2.5 had a stronger effect on the deaths resulting from non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases. The effect of O3 on deaths was not significantly different between the cold season and the warm season. Women and the elders (over 65 years) were at high risk of being affected by PM2.5/O3. Short-term exposure to PM2.5 was positively correlated with increased deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Hefei. Females and elders were more vulnerable to PM2.5/O3 exposure. No significant associations were observed between ozone and deaths from non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, malignant tumors, and diabetes diseases.

The role of absolute humidity in respiratory mortality in Guangzhou, a hot and wet city of South China.

BACKGROUND: For the reason that many studies have been inconclusive on the effect of humidity on respiratory disease, we examined the association between absolute humidity and respiratory disease mortality and quantified the mortality burden due to non-optimal absolute humidity in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: Daily respiratory disease mortality including total 42,440 deaths from 1 February 2013 to 31 December 2018 and meteorological data of the same period in Guangzhou City were collected. The distributed lag non-linear model was used to determine the optimal absolute humidity of death and discuss their non-linear lagged effects. Attributable fraction and population attributable mortality were calculated based on the optimal absolute humidity, defined as the minimum mortality absolute humidity. RESULTS: The association between absolute humidity and total respiratory disease mortality showed an M-shaped non-linear curve. In total, 21.57% (95% CI 14.20 ~ 27.75%) of respiratory disease mortality (9154 deaths) was attributable to non-optimum absolute humidity. The attributable fractions due to high absolute humidity were 13.49% (95% CI 9.56 ~ 16.98%), while mortality burden of low absolute humidity were 8.08% (95% CI 0.89 ~ 13.93%), respectively. Extreme dry and moist absolute humidity accounted for total respiratory disease mortality fraction of 0.87% (95% CI - 0.09 ~ 1.58%) and 0.91% (95% CI 0.25 ~ 1.39%), respectively. There was no significant gender and age difference in the burden of attributable risk due to absolute humidity. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that both high and low absolute humidity are responsible for considerable respiratory disease mortality burden, the component attributed to the high absolute humidity effect is greater. Our results may have important implications for the development of public health measures to reduce respiratory disease mortality.

Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015.

BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. METHODS: Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. RESULTS: The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. CONCLUSION: Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.

Mortalità per cause cardiovascolari e respiratorie attribuibile all'esposizione alle emissioni di una centrale a carbone: una proposta per stimare l'accorciamento individuale di vita.

BACKGROUND: the exposure to a coal-fired power plant has been shown to increase mortality both for cardiovascular and respiratory causes among an exposed cohort in comparison with a cohort of unexposed. Hazard ratios between 1.30 and 1.90 were found for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. OBJECTIVES: to estimate the individual life shortening among the exposed due to power plant emissions. DESIGN: survival for cardiovascular and respiratory disease in the exposed vs unexposed groups was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. For each gender and exposure, a fictitious cohort with a cumulative 30-year follow up was built combining three subcohorts of age at entry of 55-64, 65-74, and 75-84 years, with 10 years of follow up each. Survivals at 10 years in the 55-64-year subcohort were used as initial risks for 65-74-year subcohort; then, survivals at 10 years of the 65-74-year subcohort were used as initial risk in the 75-84-year subcohort. Eventually, 30-years cumulative follow up cohorts were obtained by gender and exposure. Individual life-shortening in people exposed was estimated as time from death of an exposed subject to the subsequent time when the unexposed cohort reached the same risk of the exposed subject at that time of the death. Here, it is proposed a method to take into account causes other than those considered. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 144,018 subjects aged 55-74 years at entry of both genders belonging to the open cohort of residents of 12 municipalities (including Savona) from 2001 to 2013 in the area where the coal-fired power plant of Vado-Quiliano (Liguria Region, Northern Italy) is located. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: individual life shortening. RESULTS: after 5 years of follow up, the individual life shortening due to cardiorespiratory causes varied between 972 and 1,822 days for males and from 612 and 1,578 days among females. Taking into account other causes of death, reduces slightly (3% for males of 75 years at death) the estimate of life shortening found in this study. The comparison between the cohorts requires that the exposed and unexposed groups are comparable, except for the exposure, and that causes other than those considered are taken into account. Socioeconomic status had been found to have little effect on cause-specific death risk indicating that, at least in terms of socioeconomic status, the exposed and unexposed groups were similar. Taking into account causes other than those considered slightly reduced the found estimates (3% at age 75 in males). According to the proposal, the life-shortening for the considered causes is easy to calculate and provides an individual indicator of damage. Inferring from group statistics individual estimates could be the most controversial point of this approach. The proposed estimates are the most credible estimate of individual damage for each occurred death among the exposed people. CONCLUSIONS: an increased hazard ratio for a wide series of causes is equivalent to a life shortening among the exposed. A method to produce reasonable estimates of life-shortening is proposed as the effect of exposure at individual level. This approach is simple and do not require sophisticated statistical tools. It appears a promising approach for other settings.