Lung cancer: a nationwide analysis of sex and age incidence trends from 1980 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer, once rare, has evolved into the global leading cause of cancer-related mortality, primarily driven by widespread cigarette smoking in the 20th century. This study explores the historical trends of lung cancer incidence in Denmark over four decades, emphasizing the impact of smoking prevalence, age, and gender on the observed patterns. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Drawing upon data from the Danish National Patient Register and information on smoking habits provided by the Danish Health Authority, this study investigates lung cancer incidence rates, demographic shifts, and smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2022. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence exhibited a consistent decline in males from 1950 to 2022, whereas female smoking prevalence maintained a stable level from 1950 to 1987, followed by a subsequent decline from 1987 to 2022. A peak in lung cancer crude incidence rates was identified during 2014-2017, with no significant difference observed before and after this period. Over the period, the gender distribution transitioned from a male majority to an equal male-female ratio, and age-specific disparities indicated declines in patients aged 50-59 and increases in those above 80 years. INTERPRETATION: The certainty of a decline in lung cancer incidence in the coming years remains unclear. Based on smoking prevalence, it might still be a decade away. To ensure a sustained decline in lung cancer incidence, targeted interventions are imperative, including customized smoking cessation programs that could be designed favorably for females. Given the modest decline in smoking prevalence over the last decade, legislation aimed at discouraging young individuals from smoking is pivotal. As of now, these efforts have not been implemented in Denmark.

Associations between depression, lifestyle and brain structure: A longitudinal MRI study.

BACKGROUND: Depression has been associated with decreased regional grey matter volume, which might partly be explained by an unhealthier lifestyle in depressed individuals which has been ignored by most earlier studies. Also, the longitudinal nature of depression, lifestyle and brain structure associations is largely unknown. This study investigates the relationship of depression and lifestyle with brain structure cross-sectionally and longitudinally over up to 9 years. METHODS: We used longitudinal structural MRI data of persons with depression and/or anxiety disorders and controls (Nunique participants = 347, Nobservations = 609). Cortical thickness of medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC), rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC) and hippocampal volume were derived using FreeSurfer. Using Generalized Estimating Equations, we investigated associations of depression and lifestyle (Body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and sleep duration) with brain structure and change in brain structure over 2 (n = 179) and 9 years (n = 82). RESULTS: Depression status (B = -.053, p = .002) and severity (B = -.002, p = .002) were negatively associated with rACC thickness. mOFC thickness was negatively associated with BMI (B = -.004, p < .001) and positively with moderate alcohol consumption (B = .030, p = .009). All associations were independent of each other. No associations were observed between (change in) depression, disease burden or lifestyle factors with brain change over time. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive symptoms and diagnosis were independently associated with thinner rACC, BMI with thinner mOFC, and moderate alcohol consumption with thicker mOFC. No longitudinal associations were observed, suggesting that regional grey matter alterations are a long-term consequence or vulnerability indicator for depression but not dynamically or progressively related to depression course trajectory.

Temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factors' prevalence in patients with myocardial infarction.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Little is known about changes in cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) profile over time in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS: We assessed changes in age and CVRF profile in consecutive AMI patients enrolled in the Swiss nationwide AMIS Plus registry between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2018. RESULTS: A total of 57 995 AMI patients were included in the analysis. Mean age at presentation was 71.5 ± 11.3 years for women and 63.9 ± 12.8 years for men and did not change over time. Overall, the mean (standard deviation) number of CVRF increased from 1.76 (1.07) in 1997/98 to 2.26 (1.10) in 2017/18 in men (Ptrend  < .001), while the corresponding rates in females were 1.83 (1.11) and 2.24 (1.08) (Ptrend  < .001). In terms of active smoking, no significant trend was detected for males, while there was a significant increase in females (P < .001). As a result, the gap in smoking rates between men and women presenting with AMI decreased from 19.9% (45.3% vs 25.4%) in 1997/98 to 7.9% (41.2% vs 33.3%) in 2017/18. Reassuring was the stability in terms of diabetes prevalence for both genders. Obesity was more prevalent over time in men, while the prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia increased in both genders. CONCLUSION: Among patients with AMI in Switzerland over two decades, age at presentation remained stable, while the mean number of CVRF increased in both men and women. Striking was the increase in the prevalence of smoking in women, leading to a reduction of the gender gap over time.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease is a risk factor for sputum production in the general population: the Nagahama study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic sputum production in the general population is historically associated with clinical indices including male sex and smoking history. However, its relationship with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), which may prove an underlying factor in sputum production, is unclear. We aimed to clarify factors associated with sputum production in the general population in cross-sectional and longitudinal manners. METHODS: In the Nagahama study, a community-based cohort study, 9804 subjects were recruited between 2008 and 2010 (baseline assessment), 8293 of whom were followed from 2013 to 2015 (follow-up assessment). This study contained a self-completed questionnaire which included medical history, assessment of sputum production, and a frequency scale for symptoms of GERD. A Frequency Scale for Symptoms of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease score of ≥ 8 was defined as GERD. In addition to the frequency of sputum production at each assessment, frequency of persistent sputum production defined as sputum production at both assessments was examined. RESULTS: Frequency of sputum production was 32.0% at baseline and 34.5% at follow-up. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that sputum production at baseline was significantly associated with GERD [odds ratio (OR), 1.92; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.73-2.13] and post-nasal drip (PND) (OR, 2.40; 95% CI 2.15-2.68), independent of other known factors such as older age, male sex and smoking history. These associations between sputum production and GERD or PND were also observed at follow-up. In longitudinal analysis, 19.4% had persistent sputum production and 12.3% had transient sputum production, i.e., at baseline only. Multivariable analysis for risk of persistence of sputum production revealed that persistent sputum production was associated with GERD and PND, in addition to the known risk factors listed above. The proportion of subjects with GERD at both assessments was highest among subjects with persistent sputum production. CONCLUSIONS: Cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis demonstrated an association in the general population between sputum production and GERD, as well as PND, independent of known risk factors. The presence of GERD should be assessed in patients complaining of sputum production.

Temporal changes in diabetes prevalence and achievement of care goals in urban South Asia from 2010 to 2016 - The Center for Cardio-metabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia Study.

AIM: Achievement of treatment targets among individuals with diabetes remains suboptimal in many parts of the globe. We aimed to assess changes in diabetes prevalence and achievement of diabetes care goals in South Asia using two consecutive cross-sectional population-based surveys. METHODS: Two representative samples of South Asian adults were recruited using identical methods from Chennai, Delhi, and Karachi in 2010-11 (n = 16,288; response rate-94.7%) and 2015-16 (n = 14,587; response rate-94.0%) through the Center for Cardio-metabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (CARRS) Study. Quality of care goals were defined as HbA1c <53 mmol/mol (7.0%), blood pressure (BP) control: <140/90 mmHg, lipid control: LDL cholesterol <2.56 mmol/l (100 mg/dl), and self-reported non-smoking. RESULTS: Weighted prevalence of self-reported diabetes increased by 9.0% [13% (95%CI: 13-14) to 15% (14-15)] while that of newly diagnosed diabetes decreased by 16% [6.1% (5.7-6.6) to 5.1% (4.6-5.6)]. There were improvements in achieving glycaemic (25% to 30%, p = 0.002) and lipid (34% to 45%, p < 0.001) goals, but no notable improvements in BP control or smoking status. The proportion of individuals with self-reported diabetes meeting more than one target also increased. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes prevalence continues to grow among urban South Asians and large gaps still exist in the attainment of treatment targets. Concerted policy, systemic, clinical and individual efforts are needed to close these care gaps.

Trends in Social Norms Towards Smoking Between 2002 and 2015 Among Daily Smokers: Findings From the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (ITC 4C).

OBJECTIVE: To assess trends in daily smokers' social norms and opinions of smoking between 2002 and 2015 in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. METHOD: Data were from wave 1 (2002) to wave 9 (2013-2015) of the longitudinal International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia), involving 23 831 adult daily smokers. Generalized estimating equation logistic regression models, adjusted for demographics and survey design effects, assessed associations of wave and country with outcomes: (A) over half of five closest friends smoke, (B) agreeing that people important to you believe you should not smoke, (C) agreeing that society disapproves of smoking, and (D) negative opinion of smoking. RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2015, adjusting for covariates, (A) over half of five closest friends smoke did not change (56% vs. 55%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.95 [95% Confidence Interval = 0.85-1.07]), (B) agreeing that people important to you believe you should not smoke generally decreased (89% vs. 82%; AOR = 0.54 [0.46-0.64]) despite an increase around 2006-2007, (C) agreeing that society disapproves of smoking increased between 2002 and 2006-2007 (83% vs. 87%; AOR = 1.38 [1.24-1.54]) then decreased until 2013-2015 (78%; AOR = 0.74 [0.63-0.88]), and (D) negative opinion of smoking decreased between 2002 and 2010-2011 (54% vs. 49%; AOR = 0.83 [0.75-0.91]) despite an increase around 2005-2006 and at the final wave (2013-2015). Except friend smoking, Canada had the greatest, and the United Kingdom the lowest, antismoking social norms and opinions. CONCLUSIONS: Except friend smoking and opinion of smoking, daily smokers' social norms became less antismoking between 2002 and 2015 despite increases around 2006-2007. Several potential explanations are discussed yet remain undetermined. IMPLICATIONS: Increasingly comprehensive tobacco control policies alongside decreasing smoking prevalence in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia have led to the assumption that smoking has become denormalized in these countries. Absent from the literature is any formal assessment of social norms towards smoking over time. Contrary to our hypotheses, this study found that the injunctive social norms of daily smokers became less antismoking between 2002 and 2015, despite increases around 2006-2007. There was no change over time in the proportion of daily smokers who report that over half of their five closest friends smoke.

Widening Socioeconomic Inequalities in Smoking in Japan, 2001-2016.

BACKGROUND: Japan is one of the world's largest tobacco epidemic countries but few studies have focused on socioeconomic inequalities. We aimed to examine whether socioeconomic inequalities in smoking have reduced in Japan in recent times. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions, a large nationally representative survey conducted every 3 years (n ≈ 700,000 per year) in Japan, during 2001-2016. Age-standardized smoking prevalence was computed based on occupational class and educational level. We calculated smoking prevalence difference (PD) and ratio (PR) of (a) manual workers versus upper non-manual workers and (b) low versus high educational level. The slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index inequality (RII) by educational level were used as inequality measures. RESULTS: Overall smoking prevalence (25-64 years) decreased from 56.0% to 38.4% among men and from 17.0% to 13.0% among women during 2001-2016. The PD between manual and upper non-manual workers (25-64 years) increased from 11.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0-12.9%) to 14.6% (95% CI, 13.5-15.6%) during 2001-2016. In 2016, smoking prevalence (25-64 years) for low, middle, and highly educated individuals were 57.8%, 43.9%, and 27.8% for men, and 34.7%, 15.9%, and 5.6% for women, respectively. SII and RII by educational level increased among both sexes. Larger socioeconomic differences in smoking prevalence were observed in younger generations, which suggests that socioeconomic inequalities in smoking evolve in a cohort pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities in smoking widened between 2001 and 2016 in Japan, which indicates that health inequalities will continue to exist in near future.

Durability of Abstinence After Completing a Comprehensive Digital Smoking Cessation Program Incorporating a Mobile App, Breath Sensor, and Coaching: Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite decreasing prevalence over the last several decades, cigarette smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death and disease, underscoring the need for innovative, effective solutions. Pivot is a novel, inclusive smoking cessation program designed for smokers along the entire spectrum of readiness to quit. Pivot leverages proven methods and technological advancements, including a personal portable breath carbon monoxide sensor, smartphone app, and in-app text-based coaching. We previously reported outcomes from the end of active Pivot program participation in 319 adult smokers. Herein, we report longer-term follow up in this cohort. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess and report participant outcomes 3 months after completion of Pivot, including smoking behavior, quit rates, continuous abstinence rates and durability, and predictors of abstinence. METHODS: This prospective remote cohort study included US-based cigarette smokers aged 18 to 65 years who smoked ≥5 cigarettes per day (CPD). Three months after completion of active participation in Pivot, final follow-up data were collected via an online questionnaire. Outcomes included smoking behavior (CPD and quit attempts), self-reported quit rates (7- and 30-day point prevalence abstinence [PPA]), and continuous abstinence rates (proportion who achieved uninterrupted abstinence) and duration. Exploratory regression analyses were performed to identify baseline characteristics associated with achievement of 7-day PPA, 30-day PPA, and continuous abstinence. RESULTS: A total of 319 participants completed onboarding (intention-to-treat [ITT]); 288/319 participants (90.3%) completed follow up (completers) at a mean of 7.2 (SD 1.2) months after onboarding. At final follow up, CPD were reduced by 52.6% (SE 2.1; P<.001) among all 319 participants, and most completers (152/288, 52.8%) reduced their CPD by at least 50%. Overall, most completers (232/288, 80.6%) made at least one quit attempt. Quit rates increased after the end of Pivot; using ITT analyses, 35.4% (113/319) achieved 7-day PPA and 31.3% (100/319) achieved 30-day PPA at final follow up compared with 32.0% (102/319) and 27.6% (88/319), respectively, at the end of the Pivot program. Continuous abstinence was achieved in about a quarter of those who onboarded (76/319, 23.8%) and in most who reported 30-day PPA at the end of Pivot (76/88, 86.4%), with a mean abstinence duration of 5.8 (SD 0.6) months. In exploratory regression analyses, lower baseline CPD, more positive baseline attitudes reflecting higher self-efficacy (higher confidence to quit and lower perceived difficulty of quitting), and higher education were associated with achieving abstinence. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first longer-term outcomes of the Pivot smoking cessation program. At final follow up, quit rates increased and continuous abstinence was favorable; the majority who achieved abstinence at the end of Pivot sustained abstinence throughout follow up. Decreases in CPD persisted and most participants made a quit attempt. Overall, final follow-up outcomes were stable or improved when compared to previous outcomes from the end of the program. These findings validate earlier results, and suggest that Pivot is an effective and durable solution for smoking cessation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03295643; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03295643.

Early-life factors and adult anti-Müllerian hormone levels.

AIM: This study aims to examine whether early-life factors are associated with adult ovarian reserve, measured by anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels. METHODS: The work is based on the Jerusalem Perinatal Study (JPS), an extensive birth cohort with detailed information on all pregnancies and deliveries in Jerusalem between 1974 and 1976. A subset of individuals participated in a follow-up study that took place between 2007 and 2009 in which they completed questionnaires and were physically examined at mean age of 32. A blood sample was additionally drawn from each participant, and AMH was measured in a sample of 239 women. The associations between each early-life factors, including birth weight, maternal pre-pregnancy weight, gestational weight gain (GWG), socioeconomic position at birth, and parental smoking during pregnancy, were assessed with AMH levels at the age of 32.Multivariable regression models were used to examine the associations with AMH, adjusting for potential confounders at birth and at the age of 32. RESULTS: Low birth weight was significantly associated with lower ovarian reserve reflected by lower levels of AMH at age 32 (range 30-36), independent of other early-life factors and after adjusting for confounders (ß = 0.180, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: This prospective study demonstrates the association of birth weight and adult ovarian reserve. Underlying mechanisms are yet to be fully understood.

Trends in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in US Adults by Race and Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status, 1999-2018.

Importance: After decades of decline, the US cardiovascular disease mortality rate flattened after 2010, and racial and ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease mortality persisted. Objective: To examine 20-year trends in cardiovascular risk factors in the US population by race and ethnicity and by socioeconomic status. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 50 571 participants aged 20 years or older from the 1999-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, a series of cross-sectional surveys in nationally representative samples of the US population, were included. Exposures: Calendar year, race and ethnicity, education, and family income. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age- and sex-adjusted means or proportions of cardiovascular risk factors and estimated 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were calculated for each of 10 two-year cycles. Results: The mean age of participants ranged from 49.0 to 51.8 years and the proportion of women from 48.2% to 51.3% in the surveys. From 1999-2000 to 2017-2018, age- and sex-adjusted mean body mass index increased from 28.0 (95% CI, 27.5-28.5) to 29.8 (95% CI, 29.2-30.4); mean hemoglobin A1c increased from 5.4% (95% CI, 5.3%-5.5%) to 5.7% (95% CI, 5.6%-5.7%) (both P < .001 for linear trends). Mean serum total cholesterol decreased from 203.3 mg/dL (95% CI, 200.9-205.8 mg/dL) to 188.5 mg/dL (95% CI, 185.2-191.9 mg/dL); prevalence of smoking decreased from 24.8% (95% CI, 21.8%-27.7%) to 18.1% (95% CI, 15.4%-20.8%) (both P < .001 for linear trends). Mean systolic blood pressure decreased from 123.5 mm Hg (95% CI, 122.2-124.8 mm Hg) in 1999-2000 to 120.5 mm Hg (95% CI, 119.6-121.3 mm Hg) in 2009-2010, then increased to 122.8 mm Hg (95% CI, 121.7-123.8 mm Hg) in 2017-2018 (P < .001 for nonlinear trend). Age- and sex-adjusted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk decreased from 7.6% (95% CI, 6.9%-8.2%) in 1999-2000 to 6.5% (95% CI, 6.1%-6.8%) in 2011-2012, then did not significantly change. Age- and sex-adjusted body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and hemoglobin A1c were consistently higher, while total cholesterol was lower in non-Hispanic Black participants compared with non-Hispanic White participants (all P < .001 for group differences). Individuals with college or higher education or high family income had consistently lower levels of cardiovascular risk factors. The mean age- and sex-adjusted 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was significantly higher in non-Hispanic Black participants compared with non-Hispanic White participants (difference, 1.4% [95% CI, 1.0%-1.7%] in 1999-2008 and 2.0% [95% CI, 1.7%-2.4%] in 2009-2018]). This difference was attenuated (-0.3% [95% CI, -0.6% to 0.1%] in 1999-2008 and 0.7% [95% CI, 0.3%-1.0%] in 2009-2018) after further adjusting for education, income, home ownership, employment, health insurance, and access to health care. Conclusions and Relevance: In this serial cross-sectional survey study that estimated US trends in cardiovascular risk factors from 1999 through 2018, differences in cardiovascular risk factors persisted between Black and White participants; the difference may have been moderated by social determinants of health.

Smoking Paradox in Stroke Survivors?: Uncovering the Truth by Interpreting 2 Sets of Data.

Background and Purpose- The observation that smokers with stroke could have better outcome than nonsmokers led to the term "smoking paradox." The controversy of such a complex claim has not been fully settled, even though different case mix was noted. Analyses were conducted on 2 independent data sets to evaluate and determine whether such a paradox truly exists. Methods- Taiwan Stroke Registry with 88 925 stroke cases, and MJ cohort with 541 047 adults participating in a medical screening program with 1630 stroke deaths developed during 15 years of follow-up (1994-2008). Primary outcome for stroke registry was functional independence at 3 months by modified Rankin Scale score ≤2, for individuals classified by National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission. For MJ cohort, mortality risk by smoking status or by stroke history was assessed by hazard ratio. Results- A >11-year age difference in stroke incidence was found between smokers and nonsmokers, with a median age of 60.2 years for current smokers and 71.6 years for nonsmokers. For smokers, favorable outcome in mortality and in functional assessment in 3 months with modified Rankin Scale score ≤2 stratified by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was present but disappeared when age and sex were matched. Smokers without stroke history had a ≈2-fold increase in stroke deaths (2.05 for ischemic stroke and 1.53 for hemorrhagic stroke) but smokers with stroke history, 7.83-fold increase, overshadowing smoking risk. Quitting smoking at earlier age reversed or improved outcome. Conclusions- "The more you smoke, the earlier you stroke, and the longer sufferings you have to cope." Smokers had 2-fold mortality from stroke but endured stroke disability 11 years longer. Quitting early reduced or reversed the harms.

Changes in parental smoking during pregnancy and risks of adverse birth outcomes and childhood overweight in Europe and North America: An individual participant data meta-analysis of 229,000 singleton births.

BACKGROUND: Fetal smoke exposure is a common and key avoidable risk factor for birth complications and seems to influence later risk of overweight. It is unclear whether this increased risk is also present if mothers smoke during the first trimester only or reduce the number of cigarettes during pregnancy, or when only fathers smoke. We aimed to assess the associations of parental smoking during pregnancy, specifically of quitting or reducing smoking and maternal and paternal smoking combined, with preterm birth, small size for gestational age, and childhood overweight. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis among 229,158 families from 28 pregnancy/birth cohorts from Europe and North America. All 28 cohorts had information on maternal smoking, and 16 also had information on paternal smoking. In total, 22 cohorts were population-based, with birth years ranging from 1991 to 2015. The mothers' median age was 30.0 years, and most mothers were medium or highly educated. We used multilevel binary logistic regression models adjusted for maternal and paternal sociodemographic and lifestyle-related characteristics. Compared with nonsmoking mothers, maternal first trimester smoking only was not associated with adverse birth outcomes but was associated with a higher risk of childhood overweight (odds ratio [OR] 1.17 [95% CI 1.02-1.35], P value = 0.030). Children from mothers who continued smoking during pregnancy had higher risks of preterm birth (OR 1.08 [95% CI 1.02-1.15], P value = 0.012), small size for gestational age (OR 2.15 [95% CI 2.07-2.23], P value < 0.001), and childhood overweight (OR 1.42 [95% CI 1.35-1.48], P value < 0.001). Mothers who reduced the number of cigarettes between the first and third trimester, without quitting, still had a higher risk of small size for gestational age. However, the corresponding risk estimates were smaller than for women who continued the same amount of cigarettes throughout pregnancy (OR 1.89 [95% CI 1.52-2.34] instead of OR 2.20 [95% CI 2.02-2.42] when reducing from 5-9 to ≤4 cigarettes/day; OR 2.79 [95% CI 2.39-3.25] and OR 1.93 [95% CI 1.46-2.57] instead of OR 2.95 [95% CI 2.75-3.15] when reducing from ≥10 to 5-9 and ≤4 cigarettes/day, respectively [P values < 0.001]). Reducing the number of cigarettes during pregnancy did not affect the risks of preterm birth and childhood overweight. Among nonsmoking mothers, paternal smoking was associated with childhood overweight (OR 1.21 [95% CI 1.16-1.27], P value < 0.001) but not with adverse birth outcomes. Limitations of this study include the self-report of parental smoking information and the possibility of residual confounding. As this study only included participants from Europe and North America, results need to be carefully interpreted regarding other populations. CONCLUSIONS: We observed that as compared to nonsmoking during pregnancy, quitting smoking in the first trimester is associated with the same risk of preterm birth and small size for gestational age, but with a higher risk of childhood overweight. Reducing the number of cigarettes, without quitting, has limited beneficial effects. Paternal smoking seems to be associated, independently of maternal smoking, with the risk of childhood overweight. Population strategies should focus on parental smoking prevention before or at the start, rather than during, pregnancy.

Association between free tobacco product sample receipt and tobacco use in youth and adults in the PATH Study, 2014-2016.

Tobacco companies have distributed free samples of tobacco products in the past. While prior studies have found a relationship between various marketing strategies and tobacco use, no study has assessed the prevalence of free sample receipt or the relationship between receipt and subsequent tobacco use. We analyze three waves of Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data to provide the first nationally representative prevalence estimates of free tobacco product receipt among US youth and adults in 2014 to 2016. This analysis also examines the relationship between free tobacco product receipt and ever, past 30-day, and new tobacco use one year later. The prevalence of free sample receipt in the US population in 2014-2016 was 0.8% for any tobacco product but 1.6% for ENDS/e-liquid in adults, and 0.5% for any tobacco product but 1.05% for ENDS/e-liquid in youth. Free sample receipt was higher among vulnerable subgroups. Receipt of free tobacco product samples was associated with tobacco use status using cross-sectional data in youth and adults, as well as one year later in youth. Receipt of a free ENDS or e-liquid sample was associated with any tobacco and ENDS use status using cross-sectional data in youth and adults. After these data were collected, the US Food and Drug Administration broadened the ban on distributing free samples to include all tobacco products except smokeless tobacco in adult-only facilities. Our findings support limiting free samples to further prevent youth access to tobacco products.

Trends in prevalence and mortality burden attributable to smoking, Brazil and federated units, 1990 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: The present study sought to analyze smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality estimates produced by the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study for Brazil, 26 states, and the Federal District. METHODS: Prevalence of current smokers from 1990 to 2017 by sex and age was estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Population-attributable fractions were calculated for different risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality. A cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort was performed to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. Smoking-attributable mortality rates were described and analyzed by development at state levels, using the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Finally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to evaluate the contribution of different factors to the changes in the number of deaths attributable to smoking between 1990 and 2017. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2017, prevalence of smoking in the population (≥ 20 years old) decreased from 35.3 to 11.3% in Brazil. This downward trend was seen for both sexes and in all states, with a marked reduction in exposure to this risk factor in younger cohorts. Smoking-attributable mortality rates decreased by 57.8% (95% UI - 61.2, - 54.1) between 1990 and 2017. Overall, larger reductions were observed in states with higher SDI (Pearson correlation 0.637; p < 0.01). In Brazil, smoking remains responsible for a considerable amount of deaths, especially due to cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. CONCLUSIONS: Brazil has adopted a set of regulatory measures and implemented anti-tobacco policies that, along with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, have contributed to the results presented in the present study. Other regulatory measures need to be implemented to boost a reduction in smoking in order to reach the goals established in the scope of the 2030 United Nations Agenda for Sustainable Development.

History and Current Trends in the Electronic Cigarette Retail Marketplace in the United States: 2010-2016.

INTRODUCTION: The US market for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) has grown rapidly in the last decade. There is limited published evidence examining changes in the ENDS marketplace prior to the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) deeming rule in 2016. This study describes US ENDS retail market trends from 2010 to 2016. METHODS: National data were obtained from Nielsen retail scanners for five product types: (1) disposables, (2) rechargeables, (3) cartridge replacements, (4) e-liquid bottle refills, and (5) specialty vapor products. We examined dollar sales, volume, price, brand, and flavor. RESULTS: Adjusted national sales increased from $11.6 million in 2010 to $751.2 million in 2016. The annual rate of sales growth rapidly increased before slowing through 2015. The rate of growth spiked in 2016. Market share for menthol products and other assorted flavors increased from 20% in 2010 to 52.1% by 2016. NJOY's early market dominance shifted as tobacco industry brands entered the market and eventually captured 87.8% of share by 2016. Rechargeables and accompanying products comprised an increased proportion of total volume sold over time while disposable volume declined. Specialty vapor products appeared at retail in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Findings show strong early growth in the ENDS retail market followed by considerable slowing over time, despite a slight uptick in 2016. Trends reflect shifts to flavored products, newer generation "open-system" devices, lower prices, and tobacco industry brands. This study provides a baseline against which to compare the impact of FDA's 2016 deeming rule and future actions on the ENDS marketplace. IMPLICATIONS: This study uses market scanner data from US retail outlets to describe trends in the ENDS retail market from 2010 to 2016, providing a baseline against which to compare the impact of FDA's 2016 deeming rule and future actions on the ENDS marketplace. Understanding historical market trends is valuable in assessing how future regulatory efforts and advances in ENDS technology may impact industry response and consumer uptake and use.

Goal-Directed and Habitual Control in Smokers.

INTRODUCTION: Harmful behavior such as smoking may reflect a disturbance in the balance of goal-directed and habitual control. Animal models suggest that habitual control develops after prolonged substance use. In this study, we investigated whether smokers (N = 49) differ from controls (N = 46) in the regulation of goal-directed and habitual behavior. It was also investigated whether individual differences in nicotine dependence levels were associated with habitual responding. METHODS: We used two different multistage instrumental learning tasks that consist of an instrumental learning phase, subsequent outcome devaluation, and a testing phase to measure the balance between goal-directed and habitual responding. The testing phases of these tasks occurred after either appetitive versus avoidance instrumental learning. The appetitive versus aversive instrumental learning stages in the two different tasks modeled positive versus negative reinforcement, respectively. RESULTS: Smokers and nonsmoking controls did not differ on habitual versus goal-directed control in either task. Individual differences in nicotine dependence within the group of smokers, however, were positively associated with habitual responding after appetitive instrumental learning. This effect seems to be due to impaired stimulus-outcome learning, thereby hampering goal-directed task performance and tipping the balance to habitual responding. CONCLUSIONS: The current finding highlights the importance of individual differences within smokers. For future research, neuroimaging studies are suggested to further unravel the nature of the imbalance between goal-directed versus habitual control in severely dependent smokers by directly measuring activity in the corresponding brain systems. IMPLICATIONS: Goal-directed versus habitual behavior in substance use and addiction is highly debated. This study investigated goal-directed versus habitual control in smokers. The findings suggest that smokers do not differ from controls in goal-directed versus habitual control. Individual differences in nicotine dependence within smokers, however, were positively associated with habitual responding after appetitive instrumental learning. This effect seems to be due to impaired stimulus-outcome learning, thereby hampering goal-directed task performance and tipping the balance to habitual responding. These findings add to the ongoing debate on habitual versus goal-directed control in addiction and emphasize the importance of individual differences within smokers.

Trends in Cigar Use in the United States, 2002-2016: Diverging Trends by Race/Ethnicity.

INTRODUCTION: Although there are racial/ethnic differences in cigarette use, little is known about how non-cigarette tobacco use differs among racial/ethnic groups. This study investigated trends in cigar use from 2002 to 2016, by racial/ethnic group, in nationally representative US data. METHODS: Data were drawn from the 2002-2016 National Survey on Drug Use and Health public use data files (total analytic sample n = 630 547 including 54 060 past-month cigar users). Linear time trends of past-month cigar use were examined by racial/ethnic group (Non-Hispanic [NH] White, NH Black, Hispanic, NH Other/Mixed Race/Ethnicity) using logistic regression models. RESULTS: In 2016, the prevalence of past-month cigar use was significantly higher among NH Black respondents than among other racial/ethnic groups (ps < .001). Cigar use was also higher among NH White respondents than among Hispanic and NH Other/Mixed Race/Ethnicity respondents. The year by racial/ethnic group interaction was significant (p < .001). Past-month cigar use decreased significantly from 2002 to 2016 among NH White and Hispanic respondents (ps = .001), whereas no change in prevalence was observed among NH Black (p = .779) and NH Other/Mixed Race/Ethnicity respondents (p = .152). Cigar use decreased for NH White men (p < .001) and did not change for NH White women (p = .884). Conversely, cigar use increased for NH Black women (p < .001) and did not change for NH Black men (p = .546). CONCLUSIONS: Cigar use remains significantly more common among NH Black individuals in the United States and is not declining among NH Black and NH Other/Mixed Race/Ethnicity individuals over time, in contrast to declines among NH White and Hispanic individuals. IMPLICATIONS: This study identified racial/ethnic differences in trends in past-month cigar use over 15 years among annual cross-sectional samples of US individuals. The highest prevalence of cigar use in 2016 was found among NH Black individuals. In addition, cigar use prevalence did not decline from 2002 to 2016 among NH Black and NH Other/Mixed Race/Ethnicity groups over time, in contrast to NH White and Hispanic groups. Further, cigar use increased over time for NH Black women. Targeted public health and clinical efforts may be needed to decrease the prevalence of cigar use, especially for NH Black individuals.

Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke.

INTRODUCTION: Adult smoking prevalence in Taiwan rapidly declined from 26.5% in 2005 to 20.0% in 2015. Nevertheless, future projections on smoking-attributable deaths and current per capita consumption do not paint an equally bright picture. METHODS: We used SimSmoke, a tobacco control simulation model to assess the impact of tax increases and other policies by predicting past and projecting over future decades smoking rates and smoking-attributable mortality. RESULTS: The model accurately depicts the decline in smoking prevalence observed in Taiwan from 2000 to 2015. Nonetheless, under the 'status quo' scenario, smoking-attributable mortality is projected to continue growing, peaking at 26 602 annual deaths in 2039 and cumulative deaths >1 million by 2044. By comparing projections with current policies with a counterfactual scenario based on the 2000 policy levels, SimSmoke estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco will be a leading cause of death in Taiwan for the coming decades, showing yet again the long-term consequences of smoking on public health. The MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.

Male smoking reduction behaviour in response to China's 2015 cigarette tax increase.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate Chinese male smokers' responses to China's 2015 6% ad valorem and RMB0.1 specific excise tax increase per cigarettes pack. METHODS: A male population-based cross-sectional survey with multistaged stratified sampling was employed to collect data in six cities in China. Descriptive methods and logistic models were used to assess responses and associated factors following the cigarette tax increase among male Chinese smokers. RESULTS: Among a potential sample of 6500 Chinese males, 6010 individuals were contacted and 5782 participants completed the questionnaires. Of the 2852 current smokers, 60.7% (95% CI: 58.9 to 62.5) did not think cigarettes were expensive, 77.9% (95% CI: 76.4 to 79.5) reported no reduction in smoking in response to the 2015 tax increase and 21.3% (95% CI: 19.8 to 22.8) were not aware of the cigarette tax increase. Smokers who were occasional smokers, intended to quit and thought cigarettes expensive were more likely to report reducing cigarette smoking following the tax increase, while those who had higher household income per capita, smoked more cigarettes, and purchased more expensive cigarettes were less likely to report reducing cigarette consumption. CONCLUSIONS: About one in five male Chinese smokers reported reduction in smoking following China's 2015 cigarette tax increase. This is a relatively large impact given the very modest tax increase. Even with the 2015 increase, the excise tax represents only 36.3% of the cigarette price in China. Tax increases are needed to achieve the WHO's recommended level of 70%.

Changes to the littered cigarette pack environment in New York City between 2011 and 2015.

INTRODUCTION: Imposing policies that increase tobacco prices is a key strategy for reducing smoking prevalence, although it may result in more cigarette trafficking. In 2013, New York City (NYC) passed the Sensible Tobacco Enforcement (STE) law requiring cigarettes be sold for a minimum price of $10.50 per pack. To evaluate whether cigarette price increases changed patterns of behaviour related to cigarette tax evasion, we examined littered pack study data from 2011 and 2015. METHODS: Littered cigarette packs were collected from a random sample of NYC census tracts in 2011 and 2015. The proportions of cigarette packs with proper local, known non-local, foreign or unknown, and no tax stamp were calculated. Changes in volume, source and consumption of domestically trafficked cigarettes over time were estimated. RESULTS: In 2011, 255 packs with cellophane were collected; in 2015, 226 packs with cellophane were collected. Packs without proper local stamp increased from 60.7% in 2011 to 76.3% in 2015 (p<0.05) and those with foreign or unknown stamp increased from 11.6% in 2011 to 31.4% in 2015 (p<0.05). The percentage of domestically sourced packs attributed to domestic trafficking increased significantly from a range of 47.9% to 52.8% in 2011 to a range of 59.4% to 63.2% in 2015. CONCLUSION: While the trafficking rate among domestically sourced cigarettes increased between 2011 and 2015 (before and after the STE minimum price floor on cigarette packs was in place), there was a decline in total consumption of domestically trafficked cigarettes due to a significant increase in consumption of foreign-sourced cigarettes. Jurisdictions considering price measures should bolster monitoring and enforcement efforts to maximise public health impact. Given the interstate nature of cigarette trafficking in the USA, Federal intervention would be optimal.