Cost-effectiveness of weight-management pharmacotherapies in Canada: a societal perspective.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of weight-management pharmacotherapies approved by Canada Health, i.e., orlistat, naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB-32), liraglutide 3.0 mg and semaglutide 2.4 mg as compared to the current standard of care (SoC). METHODS: Analyses were conducted using a cohort with a mean starting age 50 years, body mass index (BMI) 37.5 kg/m2, and 27.6% having type 2 diabetes. Using treatment-specific changes in surrogate endpoints from the STEP trials (BMI, glycemic, blood pressure, lipids), besides a network meta-analysis, the occurrence of weight-related complications, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were projected over lifetime. RESULTS: From a societal perspective, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of CAD 50 000 per QALY, semaglutide 2.4 mg was the most cost-effective treatment, at an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of CAD 31 243 and CAD 29 014 per QALY gained versus the next best alternative, i.e., orlistat, and SoC, respectively. Semaglutide 2.4 mg extendedly dominated other pharmacotherapies such as NB-32 or liraglutide 3.0 mg and remained cost-effective both under a public and private payer perspective. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses varying post-treatment catch-up rates, longer treatment durations and using real-world cohort characteristics. Semaglutide 2.4 mg was the preferred intervention, with a likelihood of 70% at a WTP threshold of CAD 50 000 per QALY gained. However, when the modeled benefits of weight-loss on cancer, mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or osteoarthritis surgeries were removed simultaneously, orlistat emerged as the best value for money compared with SoC, with an ICUR of CAD 35 723 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: Semaglutide 2.4 mg was the most cost-effective treatment alternative compared with D&E or orlistat alone, and extendedly dominated other pharmacotherapies such as NB-32 or liraglutide 3.0 mg. Results were sensitive to the inclusion of the combined benefits of mortality, cancer, CVD, and knee osteoarthritis.

Global burden of early-onset osteoarthritis, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVES: Early-onset osteoarthritis (OA) is an emerging health issue amidst the escalating prevalence of overweight and obesity. However, there are scant data on its disease, economic burden and attributable burden due to high body mass index (BMI). METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, we examined the numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases, years lived with disability (YLDs) and corresponding age-standardised rates for early-onset OA (diagnosis before age 55) from 1990 to 2019. The case definition was symptomatic and radiographically confirmed OA in any joint. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of the age-standardised rates were calculated to quantify changes. We estimated the economic burden of early-onset OA and attributable burden to high BMI. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the global incident cases, prevalent cases and YLDs of early-onset OA were doubled. 52.31% of incident OA cases in 2019 were under 55 years. The age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence and YLDs increased globally and for countries in all Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles (all AAPCs>0, p<0.05), with the fastest increases in low-middle SDI countries. 98.04% of countries exhibited increasing trends in all age-standardised rates. Early-onset OA accounts for US$46.17 billion in healthcare expenditure and US$60.70 billion in productivity loss cost in 2019. The attributable proportion of high BMI for early-onset OA increased globally from 9.41% (1990) to 15.29% (2019). CONCLUSIONS: Early-onset OA is a developing global health problem, causing substantial economic costs in most countries. Targeted implementation of cost-effective policies and preventive intervention is required to address the growing health challenge.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for obesity: A mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in the United Kingdom, and reliably measuring the impact on quality of life and the total healthcare cost from obesity is key to informing the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target obesity, and determining healthcare funding. Current methods for estimating cost-effectiveness of interventions for obesity may be subject to confounding and reverse causation. The aim of this study is to apply a new approach using mendelian randomisation for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target body mass index (BMI), which may be less affected by confounding and reverse causation than previous approaches. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated health-related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and both primary and secondary healthcare costs for 310,913 men and women of white British ancestry aged between 39 and 72 years in UK Biobank between recruitment (2006 to 2010) and 31 March 2017. We then estimated the causal effect of differences in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs using mendelian randomisation. For this, we used instrumental variable regression with a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BMI, derived using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of BMI, with age, sex, recruitment centre, and 40 genetic principal components as covariables to estimate the effect of a unit increase in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs. Finally, we used simulations to estimate the likely effect on BMI of policy relevant interventions for BMI, then used the mendelian randomisation estimates to estimate the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. A unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by 0.65% of a QALY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49% to 0.81%) per year and increased annual total healthcare costs by £42.23 (95% CI: £32.95 to £51.51) per person. When considering only health conditions usually considered in previous cost-effectiveness modelling studies (cancer, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes), we estimated that a unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by only 0.16% of a QALY (95% CI: 0.10% to 0.22%) per year. We estimated that both laparoscopic bariatric surgery among individuals with BMI greater than 35 kg/m2, and restricting volume promotions for high fat, salt, and sugar products, would increase QALYs and decrease total healthcare costs, with net monetary benefits (at £20,000 per QALY) of £13,936 (95% CI: £8,112 to £20,658) per person over 20 years, and £546 million (95% CI: £435 million to £671 million) in total per year, respectively. The main limitations of this approach are that mendelian randomisation relies on assumptions that cannot be proven, including the absence of directional pleiotropy, and that genotypes are independent of confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Mendelian randomisation can be used to estimate the impact of interventions on quality of life and healthcare costs. We observed that the effect of increasing BMI on health-related quality of life is much larger when accounting for 240 chronic health conditions, compared with only a limited selection. This means that previous cost-effectiveness studies have likely underestimated the effect of BMI on quality of life and, therefore, the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce BMI.

Economic effects of the double burden of malnutrition.

Observations from many countries indicate that multiple forms of malnutrition might coexist in a country, a household, and an individual. In this Series, the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) encompasses undernutrition in the form of stunting, and overweight and obesity. Health effects of the DBM include those associated with both undernutrition, such as impaired childhood development and greater susceptibility to infectious diseases, and overweight, especially in terms of increased risk of added visceral fat and increased risk of non-communicable diseases. These health effects have not been translated into economic costs for individuals and economies in the form of lost wages and productivity, as well as higher medical expenses. We summarise the existing approaches to modelling the economic effects of malnutrition and point out the weaknesses of these approaches for measuring economic losses from the DBM. Where population needs suggest that nutrition interventions take into account the DBM, economic evaluation can guide the choice of so-called double-duty interventions as an alternative to separate programming for stunting and overweight. We address the evidence gap with an economic analysis of the costs and benefits of an illustrative double-duty intervention that addresses both stunting and overweight in children aged 4 years and older by providing school meals with improved quality of diet. We assess the plausibility of our method and discuss how improved data and models can generate better estimates. Double-duty interventions could save money and be more efficient than single-duty interventions.

Bariatric surgery is expensive but improves co-morbidity: 5-year assessment of patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery can be effective in weight reduction and diabetes remission in some patients, but is expensive. The costs of bariatric surgery in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were explored here. METHODS: Population-based retrospectively gathered data on patients with obesity and T2DM from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority (2006-2017) were evaluated. Direct medical costs from baseline up to 60 months were calculated based on the frequency of healthcare service utilization and dispensing of diabetes medication. Charlson Co-morbidity Index (CCI) scores and co-morbidity rates were measured to compare changes in co-morbidities between surgically treated and control groups over 5 years. One-to-five propensity score matching was applied. RESULTS: Overall, 401 eligible surgical patients were matched with 1894 non-surgical patients. Direct medical costs were much higher for surgical than non-surgical patients in the index year (€36 752 and €5788 respectively; P < 0·001) mainly owing to the bariatric procedure. The 5-year cumulative costs incurred by surgical patients were also higher (€54 135 versus €28 603; P < 0·001). Although patients who had bariatric surgery had more visits to outpatient and allied health professionals than those who did not across the 5-year period, surgical patients had shorter length of stay in hospitals than non-surgical patients in year 2-5. Surgical patients had significantly better CCI scores than controls after the baseline measurement (mean 3·82 versus 4·38 at 5 years; P = 0·016). Costs of glucose-lowering medications were similar between two groups, except that surgical patients had significantly lower costs of glucose-lowering medications in year 2 (€973 versus €1395; P = 0.012). CONCLUSION: Bariatric surgery in obese patients with T2DM is expensive, but leads to an improved co-morbidity profile, and reduced length of hospitalization.

Managing obesity in adults as a chronic condition.

ABSTRACT: Despite extensive evidence-based guidelines, clinicians still face many barriers to reducing the incidence of obesity. Recognizing that obesity is a chronic disease will allow clinicians to properly treat patients and bill for reimbursement. With enhanced education, knowledge of reimbursement, and a push for legislation, physician assistants can pave the way to reducing rates of obesity in adults.

Predicting obesity reduction after implementing warning labels in Mexico: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: In October 2019, Mexico approved a law to establish that nonalcoholic beverages and packaged foods that exceed a threshold for added calories, sugars, fats, trans fat, or sodium should have an "excess of" warning label. We aimed to estimate the expected reduction in the obesity prevalence and obesity costs in Mexico by introducing warning labels, over 5 years, among adults under 60 years of age. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Baseline intakes of beverages and snacks were obtained from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. The expected impact of labels on caloric intake was obtained from an experimental study, with a 10.5% caloric reduction for beverages and 3.0% caloric reduction for snacks. The caloric reduction was introduced into a dynamic model to estimate weight change. The model output was then used to estimate the expected changes in the prevalence of obesity and overweight. To predict obesity costs, we used the Health Ministry report of the impact of overweight and obesity in Mexico 1999-2023. We estimated a mean caloric reduction of 36.8 kcal/day/person (23.2 kcal/day from beverages and 13.6 kcal/day from snacks). Five years after implementation, this caloric reduction could reduce 1.68 kg and 4.98 percentage points (pp) in obesity (14.7%, with respect to baseline), which translates into a reduction of 1.3 million cases of obesity and a reduction of US$1.8 billion in direct and indirect costs. Our estimate is based on experimental evidence derived from warning labels as proposed in Canada, which include a single label and less restrictive limits to sugar, sodium, and saturated fats. Our estimates depend on various assumptions, such as the transportability of effect estimates from the experimental study to the Mexican population and that other factors that could influence weight and food and beverage consumption remain unchanged. Our results will need to be corroborated by future observational studies through the analysis of changes in sales, consumption, and body weight. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we estimated that warning labels may effectively reduce obesity and obesity-related costs. Mexico is following Chile, Peru, and Uruguay in implementing warning labels to processed foods, but other countries could benefit from this intervention.

Bariatric surgery for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus requiring insulin: Clinical outcome and cost-effectiveness analyses.

BACKGROUND: Although bariatric surgery is well established as an effective treatment for patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), there exists reluctance to increase its availability for patients with severe T2DM. The aims of this study were to examine the impact of bariatric surgery on T2DM resolution in patients with obesity and T2DM requiring insulin (T2DM-Ins) using data from a national database and to develop a health economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of surgery in this cohort when compared to best medical treatment (BMT). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Clinical data from the National Bariatric Surgical Registry (NBSR), a comprehensive database of bariatric surgery in the United Kingdom, were extracted to analyse outcomes of patients with obesity and T2DM-Ins who underwent primary bariatric surgery between 2009 and 2017. Outcomes for this group were combined with data sourced from a comprehensive literature review in order to develop a state-transition microsimulation model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery versus BMT for patients over a 5-year time horizon. The main outcome measure for the clinical study was insulin cessation at 1-year post-surgery: relative risks (RR) summarising predictive factors were determined, unadjusted, and after adjusting for variables including age, initial body mass index (BMI), duration of T2DM, and weight loss. Main outcome measures for the economic evaluation were total costs, total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) at willingness-to-pay threshold of GBP£20,000. A total of 2,484 patients were eligible for inclusion, of which 1,847 had 1-year follow-up data (mean age of 51 years, mean initial BMI 47.2 kg/m2, and 64% female). 67% of patients no longer required insulin at 1-year postoperatively: these rates persisted for 4 years. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) was associated with a higher rate of insulin cessation (71.7%) than sleeve gastrectomy (SG; 64.5%; RR 0.92, confidence interval (CI) 0.86-0.99) and adjustable gastric band (AGB; 33.6%; RR 0.45, CI 0.34-0.60; p < 0.001). When adjusted for percentage total weight loss and demographic variables, insulin cessation following surgery was comparable for RYGB and SG (RR 0.97, CI 0.90-1.04), with AGB having the lowest cessation rates (RR 0.55, CI 0.40-0.74; p < 0.001). Over 5 years, bariatric surgery was cost saving compared to BMT (total cost GBP£22,057 versus GBP£26,286 respectively, incremental difference GBP£4,229). This was due to lower treatment costs as well as reduced diabetes-related complications costs and increased health benefits. Limitations of this study include loss to follow-up of patients within the NBSR dataset and that the time horizon for the economic analysis is limited to 5 years. In addition, the study reflects current medical and surgical treatment regimens for this cohort of patients, which may change. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that in patients with obesity and T2DM-Ins, bariatric surgery was associated with high rates of postoperative cessation of insulin therapy, which is, in turn, a major driver of overall reductions in direct healthcare cost. Our findings suggest that a strategy utilising bariatric surgery for patients with obesity and T2DM-Ins is cost saving to the national healthcare provider (National Health Service (NHS)) over a 5-year time horizon.

Association between the price of ultra-processed foods and obesity in Brazil.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To estimate the relationship between the price of ultra-processed foods and prevalence of obesity in Brazil and examine whether the relationship differed according to socioeconomic status. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the national Household Budget Survey from 2008/09 (n = 55 570 households, divided in 550 strata) were used. Weight and height of all individuals were used. Weight was measured by using portable electronic scales (maximum capacity of 150 kg). Height (or length) was measured using portable stadiometers (maximum capacity: 200 cm long) or infant anthropometers (maximum capacity: 105 cm long). Multivariate regression models (log-log) were used to estimate price elasticity. An inverse association was found between the price of ultra-processed foods (per kg) and the prevalence of overweight (Body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) in Brazil. The price elasticity for ultra-processed foods was -0.33 (95% CI: -0.46; -0.20) for overweight and -0.59 (95% CI: -0.83; -0.36) for obesity. This indicated that a 1.00% increase in the price of ultra-processed foods would lead to a decrease in the prevalence of overweight and obesity of 0.33% and 0.59%, respectively. For the lower income group, the price elasticity for price of ultra-processed foods was -0.34 (95% CI: -0.50; -0.18) for overweight and -0.63 (95% CI: -0.91; -0.36) for obesity. CONCLUSION: The price of ultra-processed foods was inversely associated with the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Brazil, mainly in the lowest socioeconomic status population. Therefore, the taxation of ultra-processed foods emerges as a prominent tool in the control of obesity.

Behavioural intervention for weight loss maintenance versus standard weight advice in adults with obesity: A randomised controlled trial in the UK (NULevel Trial).

BACKGROUND: Scalable weight loss maintenance (WLM) interventions for adults with obesity are lacking but vital for the health and economic benefits of weight loss to be fully realised. We examined the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a low-intensity technology-mediated behavioural intervention to support WLM in adults with obesity after clinically significant weight loss (≥5%) compared to standard lifestyle advice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The NULevel trial was an open-label randomised controlled superiority trial in 288 adults recruited April 2014 to May 2015 with weight loss of ≥5% within the previous 12 months, from a pre-weight loss BMI of ≥30 kg/m2. Participants were self-selected, and the majority self-certified previous weight loss. We used a web-based randomisation system to assign participants to either standard lifestyle advice via newsletter (control arm) or a technology-mediated low-intensity behavioural WLM programme (intervention arm). The intervention comprised a single face-to-face goal-setting meeting, self-monitoring, and remote feedback on weight, diet, and physical activity via links embedded in short message service (SMS). All participants were provided with wirelessly connected weighing scales, but only participants in the intervention arm were instructed to weigh themselves daily and told that they would receive feedback on their weight. After 12 months, we measured the primary outcome, weight (kilograms), as well as frequency of self-weighing, objective physical activity (via accelerometry), psychological variables, and cost-effectiveness. The study was powered to detect a between-group weight difference of ±2.5 kg at follow-up. Overall, 264 participants (92%) completed the trial. Mean weight gain from baseline to 12 months was 1.8 kg (95% CI 0.5-3.1) in the intervention group (n = 131) and 1.8 kg (95% CI 0.6-3.0) in the control group (n = 133). There was no evidence of an effect on weight at 12 months (difference in adjusted mean weight change from baseline: -0.07 [95% CI 1.7 to -1.9], p = 0.9). Intervention participants weighed themselves more frequently than control participants and were more physically active. Intervention participants reported greater satisfaction with weight outcomes, more planning for dietary and physical activity goals and for managing lapses, and greater confidence for healthy eating, weight loss, and WLM. Potential limitations, such as the use of connected weighing study in both trial arms, the absence of a measurement of energy intake, and the recruitment from one region of the United Kingdom, are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: There was no difference in the WLM of participants who received the NULevel intervention compared to participants who received standard lifestyle advice via newsletter. The intervention affected some, but not all, process-related secondary outcomes of the trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN 14657176; registration date 20 March 2014).

Association between cardiorespiratory fitness, obesity, and health care costs: The Veterans Exercise Testing Study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a chronic disease, a risk factor for other chronic conditions and for early mortality, and is associated with higher health care utilization. Annual spending among obese individuals is at least 30% higher vs. that for normal-weight peers. In contrast, higher cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is related to many health benefits. We sought to examine the association between CRF and health care costs across the spectrum of body mass index (BMI). METHODS: Data from 3,924 men (58.1 ± 11.1 years, 29.2 ± 5.3 kg.m-2) who completed a maximal exercise test for clinical reasons and to estimate CRF were recorded prospectively at the time of testing. Cost data (USD) from each subject during a 6-year period after the exercise test were merged with the exercise database and compared according to BMI and estimated CRF (CRFe). Subjects were categorized as normal-weight (BMI < 25.0 kg.m-2), overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg.m-2), and obese (BMI ≥ 30.0 kg.m-2). We also formed four CRFe categories based on age-stratified quartiles of metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved: least-fit (5.1 ± 1.5 METs; n = 1,044), moderately-fit (7.6 ± 1.5 METs; n = 938), fit (9.4 ± 1.5 METs; n = 988), and highly-fit (12.4 ± 2.2 METs; n = 954). RESULTS: Average annual costs per person adjusted for age and presence of cardiovascular disease were $37,018, $40,572, and $45,683 for normal-weight, overweight, and obese subjects, respectively (p < 0.01). For each 1-MET incremental increase in CRFe, annual cost savings per person were $3,272, $4,252, and $6,103 for normal-weight, overweight, and obese subjects, respectively. Stratified by CRFe categories, annual costs for normal-weight, overweight, and obese subjects in the highest CRFe quartile were $28,028, $31,669, and $32,807 lower, respectively, compared to subjects in the lowest CRFe quartile (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Higher CRFe is associated with lower health care costs. Cost savings were particularly evident in obese subjects, suggesting that the economic burden of obesity may be reduced through interventions that target improvements in CRF.

Screening and brief intervention for obesity in primary care: cost-effectiveness analysis in the BWeL trial.

BACKGROUND: The Brief Intervention for Weight Loss Trial enrolled 1882 consecutively attending primary care patients who were obese and participants were randomised to physicians opportunistically endorsing, offering, and facilitating a referral to a weight loss programme (support) or recommending weight loss (advice). After one year, the support group lost 1.4 kg more (95%CI 0.9 to 2.0): 2.4 kg versus 1.0 kg. We use a cohort simulation to predict effects on disease incidence, quality of life, and healthcare costs over 20 years. METHODS: Randomly sampling from the trial population, we created a virtual cohort of 20 million adults and assigned baseline morbidity. We applied the weight loss observed in the trial and assumed weight regain over four years. Using epidemiological data, we assigned the incidence of 12 weight-related diseases depending on baseline disease status, age, gender, body mass index. From a healthcare perspective, we calculated the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) accruing and calculated the incremental difference between trial arms in costs expended in delivering the intervention and healthcare costs accruing. We discounted future costs and benefits at 1.5% over 20 years. RESULTS: Compared with advice, the support intervention reduced the cumulative incidence of weight-related disease by 722/100,000 people, 0.33% of all weight-related disease. The incremental cost of support over advice was £2.01million/100,000. However, the support intervention reduced health service costs by £5.86 million/100,000 leading to a net saving of £3.85 million/100,000. The support intervention produced 992 QALYs/100,000 people relative to advice. CONCLUSIONS: A brief intervention in which physicians opportunistically endorse, offer, and facilitate a referral to a behavioural weight management service to patients with a BMI of at least 30 kg/m2 reduces healthcare costs and improves health more than advising weight loss.

Maternal pre-pregnancy obesity and health care utilization and costs in the offspring.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: The association between maternal pre-pregnancy obesity and adverse child health outcomes is well described, but there are few data on the relationship with offspring health service use. We examined the influence of maternal pre-pregnancy obesity on offspring health care utilization and costs over the first 18 years of life. METHODS: This was a population-based retrospective cohort study of children (n = 35,090) born between 1989 and 1993 and their mothers, who were identified using the Nova Scotia Atlee Perinatal Database and linked to provincial administrative health data from birth through 2014. The primary outcome was health care utilization as determined by the number and cost of physician visits, hospital admissions and days, and high utilizer status (>95th percentile of physician visits). The secondary outcome was health care utilization by ICD chapter. Maternal pre-pregnancy weight was categorized as normal weight, overweight, or obese. Multivariable-adjusted regression models were used to examine the association between maternal weight status and offspring health care use. RESULTS: Children of mothers with pre-pregnancy obesity had more physician visits (10%), hospital admissions (16%), and hospital days (10%) than children from mothers of normal weight over the first 18 years of life. Offspring of mothers with obesity had C$356 higher physician costs and C$1415 hospital costs over 18 years than offspring of normal weight mothers. Children of mothers with obesity were 1.74 times more likely to be a high utilizer of health care and had higher rates of physician visits and hospital stays for nervous system and sense organ disorders, respiratory disorders, and gastrointestinal disorders compared to children of normal weight mothers. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that maternal pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity are associated with slightly higher offspring health care utilization and costs in the first 18 years of life.

Cost-effectiveness of endoscopic ultrasound-directed transgastric ERCP compared with device-assisted and laparoscopic-assisted ERCP in patients with Roux-en-Y anatomy.

BACKGROUND: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery is the second most common weight loss surgery in the United States. Treatment of pancreaticobiliary disease in this patient population is challenging due to the altered anatomy, which limits the use of standard instruments and techniques. Both nonoperative and operative modalities are available to overcome these limitations, including device-assisted (DAE) endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), laparoscopic-assisted (LA) ERCP, and endoscopic ultrasound-directed transgastric ERCP (EDGE). The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of ERCP-based modalities for treatment of pancreaticobiliary diseases in post-RYGB patients. METHODS: A decision tree model with a 1-year time horizon was used to analyze the cost-effectiveness of EDGE, DAE-ERCP, and LA-ERCP in post-RYGB patients. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess a plausible range of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, net monetary benefit calculations, and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed to assess how changes in key parameters affected model conclusions. RESULTS: EDGE resulted in the lowest total costs and highest total quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) for a total of $5188/QALY, making it the dominant alternative compared with DAE-ERCP and LA-ERCP. In probabilistic analyses, EDGE was the most cost-effective modality compared with LA-ERCP and DAE-ERCP in 94.4 % and 97.1 % of simulations, respectively. CONCLUSION: EDGE was the most cost-effective modality in post-RYGB anatomy for treatment of pancreaticobiliary diseases compared with DAE-ERCP and LA-ERCP. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this conclusion was robust to changes in important model parameters.

Evaluation of the Association Between Health State Utilities and Obesity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence From World Health Organization Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health Wave 2.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major public health challenge and its prevalence has increased across the age spectrum from 1980 to date in most parts of the world including sub-Saharan Africa. Studies that derive health state utilities (HSUs) stratified by weight status to support the conduct of economic evaluations and prioritization of cost-effective weight management interventions are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES: To estimate age- and sex-specific HSUs for Ghana, along with HSUs by weight status. Associations between HSUs and overweight and obesity will be examined. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey of the Ghanaian population. METHODS: Data were sourced from the World Health Organization Study of Global AGEing and Adult Health (WHO SAGE), 2014 to 2015. Using a "judgment-based mapping" method, responses to items from the World Health Organization Quality-of-Life (WHOQOL-100) used in the WHO SAGE were mapped to EQ-5D-5L profiles, and the Zimbabwe value set was applied to calculate HSUs. Poststratified sampling weights were applied to estimate mean HSUs, and a multivariable linear regression model was used to examine associations between HSUs and overweight or obesity. RESULTS: Responses from 3966 adults aged 18 to 110 years were analyzed. The mean (95% confidence interval) HSU was 0.856 (95% CI: 0.850, 0.863) for the population, 0.866 (95% CI: 0.857, 0.875) for men, and 0.849 (95% CI: 0.841, 0.856) for women. Lower mean HSUs were observed for obese individuals and with older ages. Multivariable regression analysis showed that HSUs were negatively associated with obesity (-0.024; 95% CI: -0.037, -0.011), female sex (-0.011; 95% CI: -0.020, -0.003), and older age groups in the population. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides HSUs by sex, age, and body mass index (BMI) categories for the Ghanaian population and examines associations between HSU and high BMI. Obesity was negatively associated with health state utility in the population. These data can be used in future economic evaluations for Ghana and sub-Saharan African populations.

The effect of bariatric surgery on health care costs: A synthetic control approach using Bayesian structural time series.

Surgical measures to combat obesity are very effective in terms of weight loss, recovery from diabetes, and improvement in cardiovascular risk factors. However, previous studies found both positive and negative results regarding the effect of bariatric surgery on health care utilization. Using claims data from the largest health insurance provider in Germany, we estimated the causal effect of bariatric surgery on health care costs in a time period ranging from 2 years before to 3 years after bariatric intervention. Owing to the absence of a control group, we employed a Bayesian structural forecasting model to construct a synthetic control. We observed a decrease in medication and physician expenditures after bariatric surgery, whereas hospital expenditures increased in the post-intervention period. Overall, we found a slight increase in total costs after bariatric surgery, but our estimates include a high degree of uncertainty.

The weight-specific adolescent instrument for economic evaluation (WAItE): psychometric evaluation using a Rasch model approach.

PURPOSE: The Weight-specific Adolescent Instrument for Economic evaluation (WAItE) is a 7-item condition-specific tool assessing the impact of weight status on seven dimensions of quality of life. The content of the WAItE was developed with both treatment-seeking and non-treatment-seeking adolescents aged 11-18 years. The aim of this study was to assess the psychometric properties of the WAItE in adolescent and adult populations. METHODS: Treatment-seeking adolescents with obesity (females n = 155; males n = 123; mean age = 13.3; 13.1 years, respectively) completed the WAItE twice. An adult general population sample completed the WAItE via an online survey (females n = 236; males n = 231; mean age = 41.2; 44.3 years, respectively). The Partial Credit Model was applied to the data and item fit evaluated against published criteria. RESULTS: The WAItE had a unidimensional structure both for adolescents and adults. There was no item misfit observed for either participant samples and no differential item functioning (DIF) was present by age or gender for the adolescents. Some DIF was observed across age groups for the adult sample. For the adolescent sample, stable item locations were observed over time. CONCLUSIONS: The aim of the WAItE is to assess the impact of weight status on the lives of adolescents in cost-effectiveness evaluation of weight management programmes. The results of this study demonstrated that the WAItE has reliable psychometric properties. The instrument may therefore be used to aid informed decision around the identification of cost-effective weight management programmes in both adolescent and adult populations.

Obesity, equity and choice.

Obesity is often considered a public health crisis in rich countries that might be alleviated by preventive regulations such as a sugar tax or limiting the density of fast food outlets. This paper evaluates these regulations from the point of view of equity. Obesity is in many countries correlated with socioeconomic status and some believe that preventive regulations would reduce inequity. The puzzle is this: how could policies that reduce the options of the badly off be more equitable? Suppose we distinguish: (1) the badly off have poor options from (2) the badly off are poor at choosing between their options (ie, have a choosing problem). If obesity is due to a poverty of options, it would be perverse to reduce them further. Some people in public health say that preventive regulations do not reduce options but, I shall argue, they are largely wrong. So the equity case for regulations depends on the worst off having a choosing problem. It also depends on their having a choosing problem that makes their choices against their interests. Perhaps they do. I ask, briefly, what the evidence has to say about whether the badly off choose against their interests. The evidence is thin but implies that introducing preventive regulations for the sake of equity would be at least premature.

Randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation of a task-based weight management group programme.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a rising global threat to health and a major contributor to health inequalities. Weight management programmes that are effective, economical and reach underprivileged groups are needed. We examined whether a multi-modal group intervention structured to cater for clients from disadvantaged communities (Weight Action Programme; WAP) has better one-year outcomes than a primary care standard weight management intervention delivered by practice nurses (PNI). METHODS: In this randomised controlled trial, 330 obese adults were recruited from general practices in London and allocated (2:1) to WAP (N = 221) delivered over eight weekly group sessions or PNI (N = 109) who received four sessions over eight weeks. Both interventions covered diet, physical activity and self-monitoring. The primary outcome was the change in weight from baseline at 12 months. To indicate value to the NHS, a cost effectiveness analysis estimated group differences in cost and Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) related to WAP. RESULTS: Participants were recruited from September 2012 to January 2014 with follow-up completed in February 2015. Most participants were not in paid employment and 60% were from ethnic minorities. 88% of participants in each study arm provided at least one recorded outcome and were included in the primary analysis. Compared with the PNI, WAP was associated with greater weight loss overall (- 4·2 kg vs. - 2·3 kg; difference = - 1·9 kg, 95% CI: -3·7 to - 0·1; P = 0·04) and was more likely to generate a weight loss of at least 5% at 12 months (41% vs. 27%, OR = 14·61 95% CI: 2·32 to 91·96, P = 0·004). With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £7742/QALY, WAP would be considered highly cost effective compared to PNI. CONCLUSIONS: The task-based programme evaluated in this study can provide a template for an effective and economical approach to weight management that can reach clients from disadvantaged communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN45820471 . Registered 12/10/2012 (retrospectively registered).

The projected burden of primary total knee and hip replacement for osteoarthritis in Australia to the year 2030.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive national joint replacement registries with well-validated data offer unique opportunities for examining the potential future burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) at a population level. This study aimed to forecast the burden of primary total knee (TKR) and hip replacements (THR) performed for OA in Australia to the year 2030, and to model the impact of contrasting obesity scenarios on TKR burden. METHODS: De-identified TKR and THR data for 2003-2013 were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Population projections and obesity trends were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with public and private hospital costs sourced from the National Hospital Cost Data Collection. Procedure rates were projected according to two scenarios: (1) constant rate of surgery from 2013 onwards; and (2) continued growth in surgery rates based on 2003-2013 growth. Sensitivity analyses were used to estimate future TKR burden if: (1) obesity rates continued to increase linearly; or (2) 1-5% of the overweight or obese population attained a normal body mass index. RESULTS: Based on recent growth, the incidence of TKR and THR for OA is estimated to rise by 276% and 208%, respectively, by 2030. The total cost to the healthcare system would be $AUD5.32 billion, of which $AUD3.54 billion relates to the private sector. Projected growth in obesity rates would result in 24,707 additional TKRs totalling $AUD521 million. A population-level reduction in obesity could result in up to 8062 fewer procedures and cost savings of up to $AUD170 million. CONCLUSIONS: If surgery trends for OA continue, Australia faces an unsustainable joint replacement burden by 2030, with significant healthcare budget and health workforce implications. Strategies to reduce national obesity could produce important TKR savings.