Multivariate statistical analysis of clinicopathologic factors influencing survival of patients with bile duct carcinoma.

AIM: To evaluate the influence of various clinicopathologic factors on survival of patients with bile duct carcinoma after curative resection. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was made for 86 cases of bile duct carcinoma treated from January 1981 to September 1995. Fifteen clinicopathologic factors possibly influencing survival were selected. Independent variables were first analyzed by univariate methods. Survival for variable was estimated by the method of Kaplan and Meier. The variables that were statistically significant by univariate analysis were included in a multivariate analysis, which were confirmed using the Cox stepwise proportion hazard model with the help of SPSS 10.0 for Windows software. RESULTS: The overall cumulative survival rate was 72.6 % at 1 year, 32.4 % at 3 years, and 18.7 % at 5 years. The results of univariate analysis showed that the major significant prognostic factors influencing survival of these patients were histological type of lesion, lymph node metastasis, pancreatic invasion, duodenal invasion, perineural invasion, macroscopic vessel involvement, resected surgical margin and depth of cancer invasion (P=0.02, 0.02, 0.004, 0.005, 0.01, 0.43, 0.03 and 0.04). Age, sex, location of tumor, size of tumor, macroscopic type of lesions, hepatic metastasis, and hepatic invasion were not significantly associated with prognosis (P>0.05). Pancreatic invasion, perineural invasion and lymph node metastases were the three most important prognostic factors by multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model. CONCLUSION: Pancreatic invasion, perineural invasion and lymph node metastases are the most important prognostic factors for bile duct carcinoma after curative resection.