The canine distemper epidemic in Serengeti: are lions victims of a new highly virulent canine distemper virus strain, or is pathogen circulation stochasticity to blame?
J R Soc Interface
; 4(17): 1127-34, 2007 Dec 22.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-17456450
ABSTRACT
In the year 1994, the Serengeti lion population was decimated by a canine distemper disease outbreak. Retrospective investigations showed that this host population had already been in contact with the pathogen in 1981 without any detected sign of disease. As an alternative to the virus mutation hypothesis to explain this difference in virulences observed in 1981 and 1994, we propose a novel mechanism of disease emergence based on variation in population immunity. We use a stochastic model to show that stochastic fluctuations in pathogen circulation, owing to a low probability of virus transmission from its reservoir to the target host and thereby resulting in variations in the global immunity level of the target host population, can explain the observations made in Serengeti. This mechanism may also be involved in other infectious disease emergences or re-emergences.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Surtos de Doenças
/
Cinomose
/
Vírus da Cinomose Canina
/
Leões
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J R Soc Interface
Ano de publicação:
2007
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
França