Asymmetrical over-infection as a process of plant virus emergence.
J Theor Biol
; 265(3): 377-88, 2010 Aug 07.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-20435046
ABSTRACT
Disentangling the role of epidemiological factors in plant pathogen emergences is a prerequisite to identify the most likely future invaders. An example of emergence was recently observed in France in 10 years, "classic" (CL) strains of Watermelon mosaic virus (WMV) were displaced at a regional scale by newly introduced "emerging" (EM) strains. Here we analyse a 3 years dataset describing the co-dynamics of CL and EM strains at field scale using state-space models estimating jointly (i) probabilities of primary and secondary infection and (ii) probabilities of over-infecting with a CL [EM] strain a plant already infected with an EM [CL] strain. Results especially indicate that it is more than 3 times less probable for a CL strain to over-infect an EM infected plant than for an EM strain to over-infect a CL infected plant. To investigate if these asymmetric interactions can explain the CL/EM shift observed at regional scale, an exploratory model describing WMV epidemiology over several years in a landscape composed of a reservoir and a cultivated compartment is introduced. In most simulations a shift is observed and both strains do coexist in the landscape, reaching an equilibrium that depends on the probabilities of over-infection.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças das Plantas
/
Potyvirus
/
Cucurbita
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Theor Biol
Ano de publicação:
2010
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
França