Predictions and estimations of colorectal cancer mortality, prevalence and incidence in Aragon, Spain, for the period 1998-2022.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: estimate colorectal cancer incidence and prevalence in, based on mortality and survival data from the period 1998-2007, and provide projections of incidence, prevalence and mortality until the year 2022. METHODS: general and colorectal cancer mortality rates were obtained from the National Statistics Institute and survival data was obtained from the EUROCARE study. Estimations were carried out through the program MIAMOD. The joinpoint program was used to quantify the annual change expected in the projections. RESULTS: in men, an increase in prevalence is expected, from 237.2 (Crude Rate - CR = 303.5) to 237.7 (CR = 412.7) per 100.000 inhabitants/year in 2022. Incidence rates would increase from 48.2 (CR = 61.6) in 2007 to 55.2 (CR = 83.1), and mortality would increase from 22.7 (CR = 29.4) to 26.0 (CR = 39.6) when comparing 2007 and women, a reduction in prevalence is expected from 181.5 (CR = 268.3) to 167.9 (CR = 286.2) cases per 100,000 inhabitants/year. Incidence would change from 25.0 (CR = 38.0) in 2007 to 22.7 (CR = 39.2), and for mortality there is also an expected decrease, from 11.3 (CR =18.0) to 10.3 (CR = 18.5). CONCLUSION: the projections indicate that colorectal cancer in follows an increasing trend in incidence, mortality and prevalencein men, in opposition to corresponding decreasing trends in women.These projections must be considered in order to plan more effective prevention and treatment measures.