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Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees.
López-Moreno, J I; Zabalza, J; Vicente-Serrano, S M; Revuelto, J; Gilaberte, M; Azorin-Molina, C; Morán-Tejeda, E; García-Ruiz, J M; Tague, C.
Afiliação
  • López-Moreno JI; Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, Zaragoza 50.059, Spain. Electronic address: nlopez@ipe.csic.es.
  • Zabalza J; Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, Zaragoza 50.059, Spain.
  • Vicente-Serrano SM; Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, Zaragoza 50.059, Spain.
  • Revuelto J; Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, Zaragoza 50.059, Spain.
  • Gilaberte M; Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, Zaragoza 50.059, Spain.
  • Azorin-Molina C; Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, Zaragoza 50.059, Spain.
  • Morán-Tejeda E; C3I-Climate Change and Climate Impacts Unit, University Geneva, Bateille-D, Carouge, Geneva, Switzerland.
  • García-Ruiz JM; Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, Zaragoza 50.059, Spain.
  • Tague C; University of Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, CA, USA.
Sci Total Environ ; 493: 1222-31, 2014 Sep 15.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24090497
ABSTRACT
Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476 hm(3)). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059 hm(3) is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Sci Total Environ Ano de publicação: 2014 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Sci Total Environ Ano de publicação: 2014 Tipo de documento: Article