A predictive fitness model for influenza.
Nature
; 507(7490): 57-61, 2014 Mar 06.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-24572367
ABSTRACT
The seasonal human influenza A/H3N2 virus undergoes rapid evolution, which produces significant year-to-year sequence turnover in the population of circulating strains. Adaptive mutations respond to human immune challenge and occur primarily in antigenic epitopes, the antibody-binding domains of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin. Here we develop a fitness model for haemagglutinin that predicts the evolution of the viral population from one year to the next. Two factors are shown to determine the fitness of a strain adaptive epitope changes and deleterious mutations outside the epitopes. We infer both fitness components for the strains circulating in a given year, using population-genetic data of all previous strains. From fitness and frequency of each strain, we predict the frequency of its descendent strains in the following year. This fitness model maps the adaptive history of influenza A and suggests a principled method for vaccine selection. Our results call for a more comprehensive epidemiology of influenza and other fast-evolving pathogens that integrates antigenic phenotypes with other viral functions coupled by genetic linkage.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Vacinas contra Influenza
/
Evolução Molecular
/
Glicoproteínas de Hemaglutininação de Vírus da Influenza
/
Influenza Humana
/
Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N2
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nature
Ano de publicação:
2014
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos