Historical emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3) in China and projections upon policy options by 2050.

ABSTRACT

Trifluoromethane (CHF3, HFC-23) is one of the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) regulated under the Kyoto Protocol with a global warming potential (GWP) of 14 800 (100-year). China's past, present, and future HFC-23 emissions are of considerable interest to researchers and policymakers involved in climate change. In this study, we compiled a comprehensive historical inventory (1980-2012) and a projection (2013-2050) of HFC-23 production, abatements, and emissions in China. Results show that HFC-23 production in China increased from 0.08 ± 0.05 Gg/yr in 1980 to 15.4 ± 2.1 Gg/yr (228 ± 31 Tg/yr CO2-eq) in 2012, while actual HFC-23 emissions reached a peak of 10.5 ± 1.8 Gg/yr (155 ± 27 Tg/y CO2-eq) in 2006, and decreased to a minimum of 7.3 ± 1.3 Gg/yr (108 ± 19 Tg/yr CO2-eq) in 2008 and 2009. Under the examined business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the cumulative emissions of HFC-23 in China over the period 2013-2050 are projected to be 609 Gg (9015 Tg CO2-eq which approximates China's 2012 CO2 emissions). Currently, China's annual HFC-23 emissions are much higher than those from the developed countries, while it is estimated that by year 2027, China's historic contribution to the global atmospheric burden of HFC-23 will have surpassed that of the developed nations under the BAU scenario.