Mapping risk of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China.
BMC Infect Dis
; 14: 382, 2014 Jul 10.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-25011940
BACKGROUND: Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China is known to be the plague endemic region where marmot (Marmota himalayana) is the primary host. Human plague cases are relatively low incidence but high mortality, which presents unique surveillance and public health challenges, because early detection through surveillance may not always be feasible and infrequent clinical cases may be misdiagnosed. METHODS: Based on plague surveillance data and environmental variables, Maxent was applied to model the presence probability of plague host. 75% occurrence points were randomly selected for training model, and the rest 25% points were used for model test and validation. Maxent model performance was measured as test gain and test AUC. The optimal probability cut-off value was chosen by maximizing training sensitivity and specificity simultaneously. RESULTS: We used field surveillance data in an ecological niche modeling (ENM) framework to depict spatial distribution of natural foci of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Most human-inhabited areas at risk of exposure to enzootic plague are distributed in the east and south of the Plateau. Elevation, temperature of land surface and normalized difference vegetation index play a large part in determining the distribution of the enzootic plague. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided a more detailed view of spatial pattern of enzootic plague and human-inhabited areas at risk of plague. The maps could help public health authorities decide where to perform plague surveillance and take preventive measures in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Peste
/
Modelos Estatísticos
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Infect Dis
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Ano de publicação:
2014
Tipo de documento:
Article