Measured voluntary avoidance behaviour during the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic.
Proc Biol Sci
; 282(1818): 20150814, 2015 Nov 07.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26511046
ABSTRACT
Managing infectious disease is among the foremost challenges for public health policy. Interpersonal contacts play a critical role in infectious disease transmission, and recent advances in epidemiological theory suggest a central role for adaptive human behaviour with respect to changing contact patterns. However, theoretical studies cannot answer the following question are individual responses to disease of sufficient magnitude to shape epidemiological dynamics and infectious disease risk? We provide empirical evidence that Americans voluntarily reduced their time spent in public places during the 2009 A/H1N1 swine flu, and that these behavioural shifts were of a magnitude capable of reducing the total number of cases. We simulate 10 years of epidemics (2003-2012) based on mixing patterns derived from individual time-use data to show that the mixing patterns in 2009 yield the lowest number of total infections relative to if the epidemic had occurred in any of the other nine years. The World Health Organization and other public health bodies have emphasized an important role for 'distancing' or non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our empirical results suggest that neglect for voluntary avoidance behaviour in epidemic models may overestimate the public health benefits of public social distancing policies.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Aprendizagem da Esquiva
/
Adaptação Psicológica
/
Influenza Humana
/
Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1
/
Epidemias
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Biol Sci
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2015
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos