Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities.
Proc Biol Sci
; 283(1826): 20152817, 2016 Mar 16.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26962143
ABSTRACT
Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Pólen
/
Clima
/
Biodiversidade
/
Dispersão Vegetal
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Biol Sci
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2016
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos