Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway.
BMC Infect Dis
; 17(1): 624, 2017 09 16.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28915795
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013-2050 in a low-risk area.METHODS:
We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection.RESULTS:
The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%.CONCLUSION:
These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Hepatite C Crônica
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Infect Dis
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Noruega