Estimation of the dispersal distances of an aphid-borne virus in a patchy landscape.

ABSTRACT

Characterising the spatio-temporal dynamics of pathogens in natura is key to ensuring their efficient prevention and control. However, it is notoriously difficult to estimate dispersal parameters at scales that are relevant to real epidemics. Epidemiological surveys can provide informative data, but parameter estimation can be hampered when the timing of the epidemiological events is uncertain, and in the presence of interactions between disease spread, surveillance, and control. Further complications arise from imperfect detection of disease and from the huge number of data on individual hosts arising from landscape-level surveys. Here, we present a Bayesian framework that overcomes these barriers by integrating over associated uncertainties in a model explicitly combining the processes of disease dispersal, surveillance and control. Using a novel computationally efficient approach to account for patch geometry, we demonstrate that disease dispersal distances can be estimated accurately in a patchy (i.e. fragmented) landscape when disease control is ongoing. Applying this model to data for an aphid-borne virus (Plum pox virus) surveyed for 15 years in 605 orchards, we obtain the first estimate of the distribution of flight distances of infectious aphids at the landscape scale. About 50% of aphid flights terminate beyond 90 m, which implies that most infectious aphids leaving a tree land outside the bounds of a 1-ha orchard. Moreover, long-distance flights are not rare-10% of flights exceed 1 km. By their impact on our quantitative understanding of winged aphid dispersal, these results can inform the design of management strategies for plant viruses, which are mainly aphid-borne.