Decision-making in drug development using a composite definition of success.
Pharm Stat
; 17(5): 555-569, 2018 09.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29956453
ABSTRACT
Evidence-based quantitative methodologies have been proposed to inform decision-making in drug development, such as metrics to make go/no-go decisions or predictions of success, identified with statistical significance of future clinical trials. While these methodologies appropriately address some critical questions on the potential of a drug, they either consider the past evidence without predicting the outcome of the future trials or focus only on efficacy, failing to account for the multifaceted aspects of a successful drug development. As quantitative benefit-risk assessments could enhance decision-making, we propose a more comprehensive approach using a composite definition of success based not only on the statistical significance of the treatment effect on the primary endpoint but also on its clinical relevance and on a favorable benefit-risk balance in the next pivotal studies. For one drug, we can thus study several development strategies before starting the pivotal trials by comparing their predictive probability of success. The predictions are based on the available evidence from the previous trials, to which new hypotheses on the future development could be added. The resulting predictive probability of composite success provides a useful summary to support the discussions of the decision-makers. We present a fictive, but realistic, example in major depressive disorder inspired by a real decision-making case.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto
/
Tomada de Decisões
/
Desenvolvimento de Medicamentos
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Pharm Stat
Assunto da revista:
FARMACOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Itália