Natriuretic and Inflammatory Biomarkers as Risk Predictors of Heart Failure in Middle-Aged Men From the General Population: A 21-Year Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND: Although several biomarkers, including natriuretic peptides and inflammatory biomarkers, have proven to be useful prognostic predictors in patients with heart failure (HF), their predictive value for incident HF has not been extensively studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: The "Study of Men Born in 1943" is a longitudinal, prospective study of men living in the city of Gothenburg, Sweden. A panel of biomarkers consisting of interleukin-6 (IL-6), cystatin C, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was analyzed from blood samples collected in 1993 in men aged 50 years. Incident HF was recorded from multiple sources, including an echocardiographic assessment in 2014. A total of 747 (94%) of the 798 participants with no previous history of HF were included. Of these 747 participants, 85 (11.4%) developed HF over a 21-year follow-up. After adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and hypertension at baseline, NT-proBNP ≥25 ng/L was associated with a higher risk of HF (odds ratio [OR] 2.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-3.36; P = .0024), as was hs-CRP >3 mg/L (OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.59-4.29; P = .0002). In a multivariable model, the expected probability of HF was 0.33 (95% CI 0.23-0.45) in hypertensive patients with hs-CRP >3 mg/L, NT-proBNP ≥25 ng/L, and BMI ≥25 kg/m2, compared with a probability of 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.07) in nonhypertensive patients with hs-CRP ≤3 mg/L, NT-proBNP <25 ng/L, and BMI <25 kg/m.2 CONCLUSIONS: NT-proBNP ≥25 ng/L and elevated hs-CRP levels in men aged 50 years were predictive biomarkers for HF over a 2one year follow-up.