Development and internal validation of an aneurysm rupture probability model based on patient characteristics and aneurysm location, morphology, and hemodynamics.
Int J Comput Assist Radiol Surg
; 13(11): 1767-1779, 2018 Nov.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30094777
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
Unruptured cerebral aneurysms pose a dilemma for physicians who need to weigh the risk of a devastating subarachnoid hemorrhage against the risk of surgery or endovascular treatment and their complications when deciding on a treatment strategy. A prediction model could potentially support such treatment decisions. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a model for aneurysm rupture based on hemodynamic and geometric parameters, aneurysm location, and patient gender and age.METHODS:
Cross-sectional data from 1061 patients were used for image-based computational fluid dynamics and shape characterization of 1631 aneurysms for training an aneurysm rupture probability model using logistic group Lasso regression. The model's discrimination and calibration were internally validated based on the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and calibration plots.RESULTS:
The final model retained 11 hemodynamic and 12 morphological variables, aneurysm location, as well as patient age and gender. An adverse hemodynamic environment characterized by a higher maximum oscillatory shear index, higher kinetic energy and smaller low shear area as well as a more complex aneurysm shape, male gender and younger age were associated with an increased rupture risk. The corresponding AUC of the model was 0.86 (95% CI [0.85, 0.86], after correction for optimism 0.84).CONCLUSION:
The model combining variables from various domains was able to discriminate between ruptured and unruptured aneurysms with an AUC of 86%. Internal validation indicated potential for the application of this model in clinical practice after evaluation with longitudinal data.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Aneurisma Intracraniano
/
Aneurisma Roto
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prevalence_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Int J Comput Assist Radiol Surg
Assunto da revista:
RADIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos