Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.
Sci Rep
; 8(1): 15252, 2018 10 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30323293
ABSTRACT
Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models' potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in the ability of the climate predictor (i.e. elevation) to reflect the winter conditions affecting lemmings both directly and indirectly. We conclude that there is an urgent need for data and models that yield better predictions of winter processes, in particular in face of the expected rapid climate change in the Arctic.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Estações do Ano
/
Arvicolinae
/
Ecossistema
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Noruega