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Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic.
Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif C; Leirs, Herwig; Neerinckx, Simon; Gage, Kenneth L; Yang, Ruifu; Liu, Qiyong; Bramanti, Barbara; Dean, Katharine R; Tang, Hui; Sun, Zhe; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Zhang, Zhibin.
Afiliação
  • Xu L; State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101 Beijing, China.
  • Stige LC; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
  • Leirs H; State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 102206 Beijing, China.
  • Neerinckx S; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.
  • Gage KL; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
  • Yang R; Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium.
  • Liu Q; Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium.
  • Bramanti B; Bacterial Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Disease, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO 80523.
  • Dean KR; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 100071 Beijing, China.
  • Tang H; State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 102206 Beijing, China.
  • Sun Z; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
  • Stenseth NC; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
  • Zhang Z; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 116(24): 11833-11838, 2019 06 11.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31138696
Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 °C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Peste / Virulência / Genoma Bacteriano / Pandemias Limite: Animals / Humans Idioma: En Revista: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: China

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Peste / Virulência / Genoma Bacteriano / Pandemias Limite: Animals / Humans Idioma: En Revista: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: China