Does communicable diseases (including COVID-19) may increase global poverty risk? A cloud on the horizon.

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus epidemic can push millions of people in poverty. The shortage of healthcare resources, lack of sanitation, and population compactness leads to an increase in communicable diseases, which may increase millions of people add in a vicious cycle of poverty. The study used the number of factors that affect poverty incidence in a panel of 76 countries for a period of 2010-2019. The dynamic panel GMM estimates show that the causes of death by communicable diseases, chemical-induced carbon and fossil fuel combustion, and lack of access to basic hand washing facilities menace to increase poverty headcounts, whereas, an increase in healthcare expenditures substantially decreases poverty headcounts across countries. Further, the results show the U-shaped relationship between economic growth and poverty headcounts, as economic growth first decreases and later increase poverty headcount due to rising healthcare disparities among nations. The causality estimates show that lack of access to basic amenities lead to increase of communicable diseases including COVID-19 whereas chemical-induced carbon and fossil fuel emissions continue to increase healthcare expenditures and economic growth in a panel of selected countries. The rising healthcare disparities, regional conflicts, and public debt burden further 'hold in the hand' of communicable diseases that push millions of people in the poverty trap.