The risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approach.
Travel Med Infect Dis
; 37: 101792, 2020.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32771653
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Human mobility between malaria endemic and malaria-free areas can hinder control and elimination efforts in the Amazon basin, maintaining Plasmodium circulation and introduction to new areas.METHODS:
The analysis begins by estimating the incidence of malaria in areas of interest. Then, the risk of infection as a function of the duration of stay after t0 was calculated as the number of infected travelers over the number of arrived travelers. Differential equations were employed to estimate the risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria in Amazonian municipalities. Risk was calculated as a result of the force of the infection in terms of local dynamics per time of arrival and duration of visit.RESULTS:
Maximum risk occurred at the peak or at the end of the rainy season and it was nonlinearly (exponentially) correlated with the fraction of infected mosquitoes. Relationship between the risk of malaria and duration of visit was linear and positively correlated. Relationship between the risk of malaria and the time of arrival in the municipality was dependent on local effects of seasonality.CONCLUSIONS:
The risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria is not negligible and can maintain regional circulation of parasites, propagating introductions in areas where malaria has been eliminated.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Plasmodium
/
Doença Relacionada a Viagens
/
Malária
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Travel Med Infect Dis
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Brasil