Development and validation of screening scores of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in middle-aged and elderly Chinese.

ABSTRACT

AIM: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common causes of chronic liver disease and also closely related to cardiometabolic disease. Its prevalence was estimated at over one-fourth in the general population in China. We aimed to develop effective score tools for detecting NAFLD. METHODS: A total of 17,212 participants aged 45-70 years old were surveyed in Shanghai between 2013 and 2014, and 13,293 participants were included in this analysis. All participants were randomly classified into the exploratory group or the validation group. Candidate categorical variables were selected using a logistic regression model. The score points were generated according to the ß-coefficients. RESULTS: We developed the Shanghai Nicheng NAFLD Score I (SHNC NAFLD Score I), which included body mass index and waist circumference with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.802 (95% CI 0.792-0.811) in the exploratory group and 0.802 (95% CI 0.793-0.812) in the validation group. We further developed the SHNC NAFLD Score II by adding fasting plasma glucose, triglyceride, and alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio to the SHNC NAFLD Score I, achieving an AUC of 0.852 (95% CI 0.843-0.861) in the exploratory group and 0.843 (95% CI 0.834-0.852) in the validation group. The two score tools also performed well in subjects with normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels. CONCLUSIONS: Based on anthropometric and clinical categorical variables, our two scores are effective tools for detecting NAFLD in both this southern Chinese population and their subpopulation with normal ALT levels.