Reliable prediction of survival in advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib: comparing 1D and 3D quantitative tumor response criteria on MRI.

OBJECTIVES: To compare 1D and 3D quantitative tumor response criteria applied to DCE-MRI in patients with advanced-stage HCC undergoing sorafenib therapy to predict overall survival (OS) early during treatment. METHODS: This retrospective analysis included 29 patients with advanced-stage HCC who received sorafenib for at least 60 days. All patients underwent baseline and follow-up DCE-MRI at 81.5 ± 29.3 days (range 35-140 days). Response to sorafenib was assessed in 46 target lesions using 1D criteria RECIST1.1 and mRECIST. In addition, a segmentation-based 3D quantification of absolute enhancing lesion volume (vqEASL) was performed on the arterial phase MRI, and the enhancement fraction of total tumor volume (%qEASL) was calculated. Accordingly, patients were stratified into groups of disease control (DC) and disease progression (DP). OS was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves with log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that stratification of patients in DC vs. DP according to mRECIST (p = 0.0371) and vqEASL (p = 0.0118) successfully captured response and stratified OS, while stratification according to RECIST and %qEASL did not correlate with OS (p = 0.6273 and p = 0.7474, respectively). Multivariable Cox regression identified tumor progression according to mRECIST and qEASL as independent risk factors of decreased OS (p = 0.039 and p = 0.006, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The study identified enhancement-based vqEASL and mRECIST as reliable predictors of patient survival early after initiation of treatment with sorafenib. This data provides evidence for potential advantages 3D quantitative, enhancement-based tumor response analysis over conventional techniques regarding early identification of treatment success or failure. KEY POINTS: • Tumor response criteria on MRI can be used to predict survival benefit of sorafenib therapy in patients with advanced HCC. • Stratification into DC and DP using mRECIST and vqEASL significantly correlates with OS (p = 0.0371 and p = 0.0118, respectively) early after initiation of sorafenib, while stratification according to RECIST and %qEASL did not correlate with OS (p = 0.6273 and p = 0.7474, respectively). • mRECIST (HR = 0.325, p = 0.039. 95%CI 0.112-0.946) and qEASL (HR = 0.183, p = 0.006, 95%CI 0.055-0.613) are independent prognostic factors of survival in HCC patients undergoing sorafenib therapy.