Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence.
Glob Chang Biol
; 27(4): 738-754, 2021 Feb.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33150704
ABSTRACT
Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the United States (US). The life cycles of the tick vectors and spirochete pathogen are highly sensitive to climate, but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Here we incorporated 18 years of annual, county-level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical model to investigate prior effects of climate variation on disease incidence while controlling for other putative drivers. We then used these climate-disease relationships to project Lyme disease cases using CMIP5 global climate models and two potential climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that interannual variation in Lyme disease incidence is associated with climate variation in all US regions encompassing the range of the primary vector species. In all regions, the climate predictors explained less of the variation in Lyme disease incidence than unobserved county-level heterogeneity, but the strongest climate-disease association detected was between warming annual temperatures and increasing incidence in the Northeast. Lyme disease projections indicate that cases in the Northeast will increase significantly by 2050 (23,619 ± 21,607 additional cases), but only under RCP8.5, and with large uncertainty around this projected increase. Significant case changes are not projected for any other region under either climate scenario. The results demonstrate a regionally variable and nuanced relationship between climate change and Lyme disease, indicating possible nonlinear responses of vector ticks and transmission dynamics to projected climate change. Moreover, our results highlight the need for improved preparedness and public health interventions in endemic regions to minimize the impact of further climate change-induced increases in Lyme disease burden.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doença de Lyme
/
Ixodes
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Glob Chang Biol
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos