Serial coronary CT angiography-derived fractional flow reserve and plaque progression can predict long-term outcomes of coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the utility of coronary CT angiography-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) and plaque progression in patients undergoing serial coronary CT angiography for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: This retrospective study evaluated patients suspected or known coronary artery disease who underwent serial coronary CT angiography examinations between January 2006 and December 2017 and followed up until June 2019. The primary endpoint was MACE, defined as acute coronary syndrome, rehospitalization due to progressive angina, percutaneous coronary intervention, or cardiac death. FFRCT and plaque parameters were analyzed on a per-vessel and per-patient basis. Univariable and multivariable COX regression analysis determined predictors of MACE. The prognostic value of FFRCT and plaque progression were assessed in nested models. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-four patients (median age, 61 years (interquartile range, 54-70); 202 males) were evaluated. MACE was observed in 45 patients (15.8%, 45/284). By Cox multivariable regression modeling, vessel-specific FFRCT ≤ 0.80 was associated with a 2.4-fold increased risk of MACE (HR (95% CI): 2.4 (1.3-4.4); p = 0.005) and plaque progression was associated with a 9-fold increased risk of MACE (HR (95% CI): 9 (3.5-23); p < 0.001) after adjusting for clinical and imaging risk factors. FFRCT and plaque progression improved the prediction of events over coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and high-risk plaques (HRP) in the receiver operating characteristics analysis (area under the curve: 0.70 to 0.86; p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Fractional flow reserve and plaque progression assessed by serial coronary CT angiography predicted the risk of future MACE. KEY POINTS: • Vessel-specific CT angiography-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) ≤ 0.80 and plaque progression improved the prediction of events over current risk factors. • Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) significantly increased with the presence of plaque progression at follow-up stratified by the FFRCT change group.