Disentangling prevalence induced biases in medical image decision-making.

ABSTRACT

Many important real-world decision tasks involve the detection of rarely occurring targets (e.g., weapons in luggage, potentially cancerous abnormalities in radiographs). Over the past decade, it has been repeatedly demonstrated that extreme prevalence (both high and low) leads to an increase in errors. While this "prevalence effect" is well established, the cognitive and/or perceptual mechanisms responsible for it are not. One reason for this is that the most common tool for analyzing prevalence effects, Signal Detection Theory, cannot distinguish between different biases that might be present. Through an application to pathology image-based decision-making, we illustrate that an evidence accumulation modeling framework can be used to disentangle different types of biases. Importantly, our results show that prevalence influences both response expectancy and stimulus evaluation biases, with novices (students, N = 96) showing a more pronounced response expectancy bias and experts (medical laboratory professionals, N = 19) showing a more pronounced stimulus evaluation bias.