[Trend analysis and prediction of colorectal cancer morbidity and mortality of residents in urban areas of Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015].

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the trend of mortality and incidence of colorectal cancer among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and to predict the mortality of colorectal cancer from 2016 to 2025. Methods: The mortality data of colorectal cancer among urban residents in Guangzhou were collected from the death registration of malignant tumors of Guangzhou Health Statistics Bureau (1972-1979), Guangzhou Health Statistics (1980-2001), Guangzhou Cancer Registration Annual Report (2002-2009) and China Cancer Registration Annual Report (2010-2015). The incidence of colorectal cancer was collected from Guangzhou Cancer Registration Annual Report (2002-2009) and China Cancer Registration Annual Report (2010-2015). The incidence and mortality data of colorectal cancer coded as C18-C21 in 10th Edition of International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) were obtained from the above data, and the demographic data were from the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual change percentage (APC) and average annual change percentage (AAPC) of colorectal cancer mortality and incidence among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and from 2002 to 2015. ARIMA model was used to predict colorectal cancer mortality from 2016 to 2025. Results: There were 19 309 colorectal cancer deaths among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015. The crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer increased from 4.33/100 000 to 24.89/100 000 (AAPC=4.2%, P<0.001). A total of 24 033 new cases of colorectal cancer were reported in Guangzhou from 2002 to 2015. The crude incidence rate of colorectal cancer increased from 22.95/100 000 to 52.81/100 000 (AAPC=6.6%, P<0.001). The mortality rate of colorectal cancer among urban residents of Guangzhou would continuously increase from 2016 to 2025 and reach 29.53/100 000 in 2025. Conclusion: The mortality rate of colorectal cancer among urban residents of Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and the incidence rate of colorectal cancer from 2002 to 2015 both show an upward trend. The mortality rate will increase from 2016 to 2025.