Predicting recurrence in patients with sentinel node-negative melanoma: validation of the EORTC nomogram using population-based data.
Br J Surg
; 108(5): 550-553, 2021 05 27.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34043770
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Identifying patients with sentinel node (SN)-negative melanoma who are at greatest risk of recurrence is important. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Melanoma Group proposed a prognostic model that has not been validated in population-based data. The EORTC nomogram includes Breslow thickness, ulceration status and anatomical location as parameters. The aim of this study was to validate the EORTC model externally using a large national data set.METHODS:
Adults with histologically proven, invasive cutaneous melanoma with a negative SN biopsy in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2014 were identified from the Dutch Pathology Registry, and relevant data were extracted. The EORTC nomogram was used to predict recurrence-free survival. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration.RESULTS:
A total of 8795 patients met the eligibility criteria, of whom 14·7 per cent subsequently developed metastatic disease. Of these recurrences, 20·9 per cent occurred after the first 5 years of follow-up. Validation of the EORTC nomogram showed a C-statistic of 0·70 (95 per cent c.i. 0·68 to 0·71) for recurrence-free survival, with excellent calibration (R2 = 0·99; P = 0·999, Hosmer-Lemeshow test).CONCLUSION:
This population-based validation confirmed the value of the EORTC nomogram in predicting recurrence-free survival in patients with SN-negative melanoma. The EORTC nomogram could be used in clinical practice for personalizing follow-up and selecting high-risk patients for trials of adjuvant systemic therapy.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Cutâneas
/
Nomogramas
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Melanoma
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Recidiva Local de Neoplasia
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Br J Surg
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Austrália