Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
; 376(1829): 20200279, 2021 07 19.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34053254
ABSTRACT
England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe 'lockdown' mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval 77-84%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9-1.4%) overall but 17% (14-22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Pandemias
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido