A stochastic metapopulation state-space approach to modeling and estimating COVID-19 spread.
Math Biosci Eng
; 18(6): 7685-7710, 2021 09 06.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34814270
ABSTRACT
Mathematical models are widely recognized as an important tool for analyzing and understanding the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks, predict their future trends, and evaluate public health intervention measures for disease control and elimination. We propose a novel stochastic metapopulation state-space model for COVID-19 transmission, which is based on a discrete-time spatio-temporal susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and deceased (SEIRD) model. The proposed framework allows the hidden SEIRD states and unknown transmission parameters to be estimated from noisy, incomplete time series of reported epidemiological data, by application of unscented Kalman filtering (UKF), maximum-likelihood adaptive filtering, and metaheuristic optimization. Experiments using both synthetic data and real data from the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave in the state of Texas demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Math Biosci Eng
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos