Reappraisal of Malignant Risk Assessment for Small (≤20 mm) Non-functioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management of non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs) ≤20 mm is controversial. The biological heterogeneity of these tumors poses challenges when deciding between resection and observation. METHODS: In this multicenter, retrospective cohort study, we analyzed all patients (n = 78) who underwent resection of non-functioning PanNETs ≤20 mm at three tertiary medical centers from 2004 to 2020 to assess the utility of preoperatively available radiological features and serological biomarkers of non-functioning PanNETs in choosing an optimal surgical indication. The radiological features included non-hyper-attenuation pattern on enhancement computed tomography (CT; hetero/hypo-attenuation) and main pancreatic duct (MPD) involvement, and serological biomarkers included elevation of serum elastase 1 and plasma chromogranin A (CgA) levels. RESULTS: Of all small non-functioning PanNETs, 5/78 (6%) had lymph node metastasis, 11/76 (14%) were WHO grade II, and 9/66 (14%) had microvascular invasion; 20/78 (26%) had at least one of these high-risk pathological factors. In the preoperative assessment, hetero/hypo-attenuation and MPD involvement were observed in 25/69 (36%) and 8/76 (11%), respectively. Elevated serum elastase 1 and plasma CgA levels were observed in 1/33 (3%) and 0/11 (0%) patients, respectively. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, hetero/hypo-attenuation (odds ratio [OR] 6.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7-22.2) and MPD involvement (OR 16.8, 95% CI 1.6-174.3) were significantly associated with the high-risk pathological factors. The combination of the two radiological worrisome features correctly predicted non-functioning PanNETs with high-risk pathological factors, with about 75% sensitivity, 79% specificity, and 78% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: This combination of radiological worrisome features can accurately predict non-functioning PanNETs that may require resection.