Dynamic forecasting of severe acute graft-versus-host disease after transplantation.
Nat Comput Sci
; 2(3): 153-159, 2022 Mar.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38177449
ABSTRACT
Forecasting of severe acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) after transplantation is a challenging 'large p, small n' problem that suffers from nonuniform data sampling. We propose a dynamic probabilistic algorithm, daGOAT, that accommodates sampling heterogeneity, integrates multidimensional clinical data and continuously updates the daily risk score for severe aGVHD onset within a two-week moving window. In the studied cohorts, the cross-validated area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of daGOAT rose steadily after transplantation and peaked at ≥0.78 in both the adult and pediatric cohorts, outperforming the two-biomarker MAGIC score, three-biomarker Ann Arbor score, peri-transplantation features-based models and XGBoost. Simulation experiments indicated that the daGOAT algorithm is well suited for short time-series scenarios where the underlying process for event generation is smooth, multidimensional and where there are frequent and irregular data missing. daGOAT's broader utility was demonstrated by performance testing on a remotely different task, that is, prediction of imminent human postural change based on smartphone inertial sensor time-series data.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Comput Sci
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China