Unlocking ensemble ecosystem modelling for large and complex networks.
PLoS Comput Biol
; 20(3): e1011976, 2024 Mar.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38483981
ABSTRACT
The potential effects of conservation actions on threatened species can be predicted using ensemble ecosystem models by forecasting populations with and without intervention. These model ensembles commonly assume stable coexistence of species in the absence of available data. However, existing ensemble-generation methods become computationally inefficient as the size of the ecosystem network increases, preventing larger networks from being studied. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach for ensemble generation that is orders of magnitude faster than existing approaches. We demonstrate that the methods produce equivalent parameter inferences, model predictions, and tightly constrained parameter combinations using a novel sensitivity analysis method. For one case study, we demonstrate a speed-up from 108 days to 6 hours, while maintaining equivalent ensembles. Additionally, we demonstrate how to identify the parameter combinations that strongly drive feasibility and stability, drawing ecological insight from the ensembles. Now, for the first time, larger and more realistic networks can be practically simulated and analysed.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Ecossistema
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS Comput Biol
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
INFORMATICA MEDICA
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Austrália