Identifiability issues in estimating the impact of interventions on Covid-19 spread.

ABSTRACT

The Covid-19 pandemic has spawned numerous dynamic modeling attempts aimed at estimation, prediction, and ultimately control. The predictive power of these attempts has varied, and there remains a lack of consensus regarding the mechanisms of virus spread and the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions that have been enforced regionally as well as nationally. Setting out in data available in the spring of 2020, and with a now-famous model by Imperial College researchers as example, we employ an information-theoretical approach to shed light on why the predictive power of early modeling approaches have remained disappointingly poor.