Spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of methane emissions from livestock in China: A spatial econometric analysis.

ABSTRACT

In recent years, China has been implementing policies to improve the livestock industry in response to the global trend toward green and low-carbon development. These policies include the establishment of demonstration zones for high-standard agriculture, the relocation of farms to the north, etc. This study aims to investigate the impact of changes in the spatial structure of the livestock industry on methane emissions. It used panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2021 and applied the IPCC methodology to quantify methane emissions at both the national and provincial levels. In addition, a spatial econometric model was used to analyze the impact of changes in the spatial structure of the livestock industry on methane emissions. The results show that methane from livestock in China decreased from 13.85 million tons in 2001 to 11.82 million tons in 2021. In addition, methane emissions from livestock in China show a significant spatial gradient and correlation. The Southwest has the highest methane emissions, accounting for 24 % of the total emissions. After controlling for spatial correlation and other factors in the model, it was found that the spatial structure of the livestock industry has a different influence on methane emissions both in the province and in neighboring provinces. To improve methane emission efficiency in the future, policies such as establishing functional zones for livestock farming, strengthening technological innovation and sharing for green development in agriculture, and promoting the optimization of agricultural and rural management structures should be implemented.