A simple and effective machine learning model for predicting the stability of intracranial aneurysms using CT angiography.

ABSTRACT

Background: It is vital to accurately and promptly distinguish unstable from stable intracranial aneurysms (IAs) to facilitate treatment optimization and avoid unnecessary treatment. The aim of this study is to develop a simple and effective predictive model for the clinical evaluation of the stability of IAs. Methods: In total, 1,053 patients with 1,239 IAs were randomly divided the dataset into training (70%) and internal validation (30%) datasets. One hundred and ninety seven patients with 229 IAs from another hospital were evaluated as an external validation dataset. The prediction models were developed using machine learning based on clinical information, manual parameters, and radiomic features. In addition, a simple model for predicting the stability of IAs was developed, and a nomogram was drawn for clinical use. Results: Fourteen machine learning models exhibited excellent classification performance. Logistic regression Model E (clinical information, manual parameters, and radiomic shape features) had the highest AUC of 0.963 (95% CI 0.943-0.980). Compared to manual parameters, radiomic features did not significantly improve the identification of unstable IAs. In the external validation dataset, the simplified model demonstrated excellent performance (AUC = 0.950) using only five manual parameters. Conclusion: Machine learning models have excellent potential in the classification of unstable IAs. The manual parameters from CTA images are sufficient for developing a simple and effective model for identifying unstable IAs.