Restructuring effects of industrial and energy structures on sectoral CO2 emission peak trajectories in China.

ABSTRACT

Economic sectors are pivotal in achieving China's dual carbon goals; nevertheless, the combined impact of industrial and energy consumption structures on sectors' peak pathways remains unresolved. We extend the optimization of separate industrial and energy structures to a multi-objective dynamic input-output optimization model. Findings indicate the following. (1) China's energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to peak in 2028, reaching a volume of 10.06-10.25 Gt. The contribution of industrial structure upgrading to this peak is three times greater than that of energy structure transformation. (2) Approximately 40% of sectors can delay their peaks until after 2030 without impeding China's overall peaking before 2030. (3) Compared with the single objective of minimizing CO2 emissions, China can not only achieve its carbon peak earlier but also enhance its average annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates by more than 0.26 percentage points and increase the non-fossil energy use's share by at least 2.78%.