Predicting COVID-19 Cases Among Nurses Using Artificial Neural Network Approach.

We designed a forecasting model to determine which frontline health workers are most likely to be infected by COVID-19 among 220 nurses. We used multivariate regression analysis and different classification algorithms to assess the effect of several covariates, including exposure to COVID-19 patients, access to personal protective equipment, proper use of personal protective equipment, adherence to hand hygiene principles, stressfulness, and training on the risk of a nurse being infected. Access to personal protective equipment and training were associated with a 0.19- and 1.66-point lower score in being infected by COVID-19. Exposure to COVID-19 cases and being stressed of COVID-19 infection were associated with a 0.016- and 9.3-point higher probability of being infected by COVID-19. Furthermore, an artificial neural network with 75.8% (95% confidence interval, 72.1-78.9) validation accuracy and 76.6% (95% confidence interval, 73.1-78.6) overall accuracy could classify normal and infected nurses. The neural network can help managers and policymakers determine which frontline health workers are most likely to be infected by COVID-19.

Lack of association between COL1A1 and COL9A2 single nucleotide polymorphisms and intervertebral disc degeneration.

BACKGROUND: Collagens are the main components of the extracellular matrix of intervertebral discs. The genetic mutations in collagen genes could potentially play a causal role in pathophysiology of intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD). In this study, we investigate the association of COL1A1 and COL9A2 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with IVDD. MATERIAL AND METHODS: ninety-six Iranian IVDD patients and 94 controls matched for age and sex were included. 5 cc of peripheral blood samples were obtained for DNA extraction using the Phenol-Chloroform method. The primers for SNPs COL1A1 rs909102 and COL9A2 were designed based on the TaqMan protocol and genotyped by real-time PCR with TaqMan. RESULTS: The 'T' allele, 'CC' and 'TT' genotypes of COL1A1 rs909102 were more common among patients, however not significantly. Despite the similar allele distribution of COL9A2 rs137853213 in patients and controls, the homozygote genotypes were more frequent among patients, though this was not significant either. CONCLUSION: The allele and genotype distributions of COL1A1 rs909102 and COL9A2 rs137853213 SNPs were not significantly associated with IVDD in an Iranian population.

Association of interleukin 2, interleukin 12, and interferon-γ with intervertebral disc degeneration in Iranian population.

BACKGROUND: Intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD) is an age-related degenerative disease, presenting with low back pain or radicular pain. The inflammatory changes would occur in discs in the process of IVDD. Therefore, the inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines, as well as their respective genes, have been proposed to play roles in pathophysiology of disease. This study has been conducted to elucidate the role of IL-2, IL-12, and IFN-γ single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in this disease. METHOD: Seventy-six patients who were diagnosed with IVDD and 140 healthy controls who complied with eligibility criteria were included. A total volume of 5 cc peripheral blood was obtained from each participant to investigate the IL-2 + 166G/T, IL-2 -330G/T, IL-12 - 1188A/C, and IFN-γ +847A/T SNPs through PCR-SSP method. RESULTS: The 'TG' and 'TT' genotypes of IL-2 - 330G/T polymorphism were significantly more common among patients and healthy controls respectively. The 'GT' and 'TT' haplotypes of IL-2 (comprised of -330G/T, and + 166G/T SNPs) were also more common among patients and controls respectively. CONCLUSION: This study indicated the significant role of IL-2 genotypes and haplotypes in IVDD. These SNPs were differently distributed in patients and controls. Therefore, alteration in the structure of IL-2 gene could play an important role in pathophysiology of IVDD.

The role of interleukin 4 and IL-4RA in intervertebral disc degeneration: investigation of single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes and a systematic review & meta-analysis of IL-4 expression level.

Background: Intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD) is a multifactorial disease that is sensitive to the balance between anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory cytokines. This study investigated the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of interleukin 4 (IL-4) in IVDD.Methods: Genomic DNA of peripheral mononuclear cells of 76 IVDD patients and 140 healthy controls were investigated for three SNPs of IL-4 (rs2243248 (-1098G/T), rs2243250 (-590 C/T), rs2070874 (-33 C/T)) and 1 SNP of IL-4RA (rs180275, +1902 A/G) through PCR-SSP method.Results: The 'C' allele frequency of IL-4 rs2243250 was 104 in 76 patients, while it was 149 in 140 controls (OR = 2, p = .001); also this SNP was significantly associated with post-operative pain reduction. The 'C' allele of IL-4 rs2070874 (130 in 76 patients, and 200 in 140 controls, OR = 2.66), and the 'CC' genotype were more frequent among patients (OR = 3.98, p < .001) than controls. 'TTT' haplotype was more common in controls (OR = 0.36, p < .001) and 'TCC' was also more common in patients (OR = 1.75, p = .012). A meta-analysis of previous studies found significantly higher IL-4 levels in disc tissues of IVDD patients, which was not similarly found in blood samples.Conclusion: The immune system plays an important role in IVDD. The extent and progress of the disease vary significantly with IL-4 level. Meanwhile, the rs2070874 and rs2243250 SNPs of IL-4 were significantly associated with IVDD in Iranian patients.

Association of IL10 and TGFB single nucleotide polymorphisms with intervertebral disc degeneration in Iranian population: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: Considered as one of the major causes of low back pain, Intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD) is caused by several genetic and environmental factors. As inflammation plays an important role in disc degeneration, the genetic changes in both inflammatory and anti-inflammatory genes may play causative roles in IVDD as well. Therefore, the interactions between inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines and also other components of disc matrix would determine the degree of tissue destruction in disc degeneration. However, there is still controversy regarding the exact role of inflammation and disc homeostasis imbalance in pathophysiology of IVDD. Therefore, current study was conducted to investigate the role of IL-10 and TGF-ß single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in Iranian IVDD patients. METHODS: Seventy-six IVDD patients and 140 healthy controls were enrolled in this study. Genomic DNA from peripheral leukocytes was tested for 3 SNPs in IL10 (L-10 -1082G/A (rs1800896), IL-10 -819C/T (rs1800871), IL-10 -592A/C (rs1800872)) and 2 SNPs in TGF-ß (TGF-ß Codon 10 C/T (rs1982037), and TGF-ß Codon 25 C/T (rs1800471) genes through PCR-SSP method. The extracted genomic DNA was genotyped for the aforementioned SNPs of interest using specific primers, which were coated in the cytokines KITs and based on the PCR-SSP method for sequencing. RESULTS: The 'T' allele of IL-10 -819C/T and the 'C' allele of IL-10 -592A/C were more prevalent among patients, whereas the 'C' and 'A' alleles of respective SNPs were significantly more frequent in controls. The genotypes including 'CT' of IL-10 -819C/T, 'CA' of IL-10 -592A/C, and 'GA' of IL-10 -1082A/G were more common among patients, while the 'CC' genotype of both IL-10 -819C/T and IL-10 -592A/C SNPs were more frequent in controls. In addition, the IL-10 haplotypes including 'ACC', 'ATA', and 'ACA' were significantly associated with disease. Meanwhile, the 'TC' haplotype of TGF-ß was more common among patients as well. CONCLUSIONS: The IL-10 SNPs were significantly associated with IVDD in Iranian population; which proposes that genomic alterations of anti-inflammatory cytokines could lead to homeostasis imbalance in intervertebral discs and degenerative changes.

Effects of atorvastatin on plasma matrix metalloproteinase-9 concentration after glial tumor resection; a randomized, double blind, placebo controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Neurosurgical procedures such as craniotomy and brain tumor resection could potentially lead to unavoidable cerebral injuries. Matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) is up-regulated in neurological injuries. Statins have been suggested to reduce MMP- 9 level and lead to neuroprotection. Atorvastatin preoperatively administered to evaluate its neuroprotective effects and outcome assessment in neurosurgical-induced brain injuries after glial tumor resection. In this prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 42 patients undergoing glial tumor surgery randomly received 40 mg atorvastatin or placebo twice daily from seven days prior to operation and continued for a 3 weeks period. Plasma MMP-9 concentration measured 4 times, immediately before starting atorvastatin or placebo, immediately before surgery, 24 hours and two weeks after the surgery. Karnofsky performance score was assessed before first dose of atorvastatin as a baseline and 2 months after the surgery. RESULTS: Karnofsky performance scale after surgery raised significantly more in Atorvastatin group (11.43 +/- 10.62 vs. 4.00 +/- 8.21) (p = 0.03). Atorvastatin did not significantly reduce MMP-9 plasma concentration 24 hours after surgery in comparison to placebo. No statistical significance detected regarding length of hospital stay among the groups. Significant reduction in MMP-9 plasma concentration was recorded in atorvastatin group two weeks after surgery (p = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Significant statistical differences detected with atorvastatin group regarding MMP-9 plasma concentration, clinical outcome and Karnofsky performance score. Consequently, atorvastatin use may lead to better outcome after neurosurgical procedures.

Developing a Personal Protective Equipment Calculator During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

These days, because of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, we have faced a number of challenges and scarcities in Iran. Lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) is one of the most remarkable problems that can have damaging consequences on the health system. In this letter, we introduce software that can help hospitals manage their PPE in terms of purchasing, distributing, and predicting the future needs in different time intervals. The software has several distinctive features such as superior speed, cost management, managerial dashboard, a wide range of applicability, comprehensiveness, supply chain management, and quality appraisal. We hope that our findings can assist health authorities in planning and optimizing the use of PPE for the response to COVID-19, where the shortage of resources may occur due to supply chain issues.

Machine learning-based COVID-19 diagnosis by demographic characteristics and clinical data.

INTRODUCTION: To facilitate rapid and effective diagnosis of COVID-19, effective screening can alleviate the challenges facing healthcare systems. We aimed to develop a machine learning-based prediction of COVID-19 diagnosis and design a graphical user interface (GUI) to diagnose COVID-19 cases by recording their symptoms and demographic features. METHODS: We implemented different classification models including support vector machine (SVM), Decision tree (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB) and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) to predict the result of COVID-19 test for individuals. We trained these models by data of 16973 individuals (90% of all individuals included in data gathering) and tested by 1885 individuals (10% of all individuals). Maximum relevance minimum redundancy (MRMR) algorithms used to score features for prediction of result of COVID-19 test. A user-friendly GUI was designed to predict COVID-19 test results in individuals. RESULTS: Study results revealed that coughing had the highest positive correlation with the positive results of COVID-19 test followed by the duration of having COVID-19 signs and symptoms, exposure to infected individuals, age, muscle pain, recent infection by COVID-19 virus, fever, respiratory distress, loss of smell or taste, nausea, anorexia, headache, vertigo, CT symptoms in lung scans, diabetes and hypertension. The values of accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, specificity and area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) of different classification models computed in different setting of features scored by MRMR algorithm. Finally, our designed GUI by receiving each of the 42 features and symptoms from the users and through selecting one of the SVM, KNN, Naïve Bayes and decision tree models, predict the result of COVID-19 test. The accuracy, AUROC and F1-score of SVM model as the best model for diagnosis of COVID-19 test were 0.7048 (95% CI: 0.6998, 0.7094), 0.7045 (95% CI: 0.7003, 0.7104) and 0.7157 (95% CI: 0.7043, 0.7194), respectively. CONCLUSION: In this study we implemented a machine learning approach to facilitate early clinical decision making during COVID-19 outbreak and provide a predictive model of COVID-19 diagnosis capable of categorizing populations in to infected and non-infected individuals the same as an efficient screening tool.

Mortality and morbidity in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: A single-center experience.

Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is the most common cause of non-ischemic strokes. Considering high mortality and poor functional status following ICH, we investigated factors that can predict short-term outcome and affect recovery of these patients. Methods: In this prospective descriptive study, 100 patients with non-traumatic ICH were included. Clinical and radiographic data were collected and extent of disability was measured by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at discharge, 1 week, 1 month, and 3 months after discharge. Results: 32 of 100 cases died at hospital and 6 more expired during 3-month follow-up. Risk factors of in-hospital mortality were warfarin use, surgical intervention, and high ICH score. Functional status of patients significantly improved 3 months after discharge. Factors associated with poor recovery were age older than 70, history of coronary artery disease (CAD), low Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) at admission, elevated mean arterial pressure (MAP), longer hospitalization, and high ICH score. Conclusion: ICH was associated with high rate of mortality (36%). Warfarin use, surgical intervention, and high ICH score were predictive of mortality during hospitalization and 3-month follow-up. Improvement of functional status began after 1 month and significantly improved 3 months after discharge.

Correlation of hepatic vein Doppler waveform and hepatic artery resistance index with the severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

PURPOSE: The study was conducted to evaluate the effect of various degrees of fatty infiltration in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease on hepatic artery resistance index and hepatic vein waveform patterns. METHODS: After identification and grading of fatty infiltration, 60 patients and 20 normal healthy subjects were examined using color and spectral Doppler sonography. The level of fatty liver infiltration was ascertained and graded by biopsy in patients and excluded by MRI in controls. The patients were allocated to four study groups consecutively, until the required number was reached, according to infiltration level as follows: normal (group A), mild (group B), moderate (group C), and severe (group D). The hepatic vein waveforms were classified into the three following groups: triphasic, biphasic, and monophasic waveform. The hepatic artery resistance index was calculated as the mean of three different measurements. RESULTS: The incidence of monophasic and biphasic hepatic vein waveform was 2 (10%) for group B, 11 (55%) for group C, 16 (80%) for group D, and none for group A. The difference in the distribution of triphasic Doppler waveform pattern between the patients and the control group was significant (p < 0.001). Hepatic artery resistance index was 0.81 (+ or - 0.02), 0.78 (+ or - 0.03), 0.73 (+ or - 0.03), and 0.68 (+ or - 0.05), respectively, in groups A, B, C, and D and was significantly different between groups (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: As the severity of nonalcoholic fatty infiltration increases, the incidence of abnormal hepatic vein waveforms increases and hepatic artery resistance index decreases.

Immunologic evaluation of patients with recurrent ear, nose, and throat infections.

PURPOSE: In this study, we aimed to study the frequency of possible underlying immunodeficiency responsible for susceptibility to ear, nose, and throat (ENT) infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred three (72 males and 31 females) consecutive children and adult patients with history of recurrent or chronic ENT infections, referred by otolaryngologists to the Department of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Children's Medical Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (Tehran, Iran), were enrolled to the study from March 2003 to March 2006. For each patient, demographic information and medical histories of any ENT infections were collected by reviewing the patient's records. We measured immunoglobulin isotype concentrations and immunoglobulin (Ig) G subclasses by nephelometry and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay methods, respectively. Of 103 patients, 75 received unconjugated pneumococcus polyvalent vaccine, and blood samples were taken before and 21 days after vaccination. Specific antibodies against whole pneumococcal antigens were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay method. Existence of bronchiectasis was confirmed in each patient using high resolution computed tomography scan. RESULTS: Among 103 patients, 17 (16.5%) patients were diagnosed to have defects in antibody-mediated immunity including 6 patients with immunoglobulin class deficiency (2 common variable deficiency and 4 IgA deficiency), 3 with IgG subclass deficiency (2 IgG2 and 1 IgG3), and 8 with specific antibody deficiency against polysaccharide antigens. In our series, bronchiectasis was detected in 5 cases associated with primary immunodeficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Long-standing history of ENT infections could be an alarm for ENT infections associated with primary antibody deficiency.

Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach.

CONTEXT: Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long-term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. SETTING AND DESIGN: System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model-incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time. RESULTS: It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region. CONCLUSIONS: Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

Hypothyroidism among patients with glioblastoma multiforme.

Background: Patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) are prone to various metabolic changes such as hypothyroidism. The present study was planned to assess the frequency of hypothyroidism in these patients. Methods: Fifty-two patients with GBM were included. All of them had been treated by tumor resection followed by cranial irradiation. Thyroid function was assessed by measurement of serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxin (FT4), and free triiodothyronine (FT3). Results: There were 33 men and 19 women. The average age was 52.4 ± 12.8 years. Among these, 32 (61%) had normal thyroid function test, whereas 4 (8%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, 5 (10%) had overt primary hypothyroidism, and 11 (21%) had secondary hypothyroidism. Sixteen patients (31%) needed thyroid hormone replacement therapy. Conclusion: Hypothyroidism is relatively prevalent in patients with treated GBM. Regular thyroid function test is advised to aid the introduction of appropriate hormone replacement therapy.

Significant association of TNF-α, but not other pro-inflammatory cytokines, single nucleotide polymorphisms with intervertebral disc degeneration in Iranian population.

OBJECTIVES: As the important role of inflammation in pathophysiology of intervertebral disc degeneration and inconsistency regarding the role of pro-inflammatory cytokine genes SNPs, the current case-control study was designed to assess this in Iranian population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The genomic DNA of peripheral leukocytes of 76 patients and 140 healthy controls were investigated to sequence 9 SNPs of pro-inflammatory cytokine genes of interleukin 1 (IL-1), interleukin 6 (IL-6), and Tumor Necrosis Factor α (TNF-α) family. RESULTS: 'GA' and 'GG' genotype of TNF-α -308 G/A SNP were significantly associated with IVDD. While 'GA' was 1.93 times more frequent in patients, the 'GG' genotype was more common among healthy subjects (OR = 0.51, P = 0.03). The 'G' allele of TNF-α -238 G/A was 2.51 times more common in IVDD patients while the 'A' genotype was more frequent in controls with odds ratio of 0.39 (P = 0.001). Interestingly, the homozygote 'GG' genotype was 2.98 times more prevalent in patients (P = 0.001) while the 'GA' heterozygote genotype was more common in healthy individuals (OR = 0.34). The other investigated SNPs were not significantly associated with disease in this study population. CONCLUSION: Polymorphisms of pro-inflammatory cytokine genes could take part in IVDD pathophysiology as the result of alteration in their expression levels or structures. The current study indicated significant roles of TNF-α -308 G/A and TNF-α -238 G/A SNPs with IVDD among Iranian patients. However, this study did not show any significant association between IVDD and either of SNPs of IL-1 and IL-6 genes.

Genetic aspects of intervertebral disc degeneration.

Intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD) is one of the common causes of low back pain. Similar to many other multifactorial diseases, it is affected by environmental and genetic factors. Although not completely understood, genetic factors include a wide spectrum of variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms, which could play a significant role in the etiology of this disease. Besides, the interactions with environmental factors could make the role of genetic factors more complicated. Genetic variations in disc components could participate in developing degenerative disc disease through altering the normal homeostasis of discs. Gene polymorphisms in disc proteins (collagens I, II, III, IX, and XI), proteoglycans (aggrecan), cytokines (interleukins I, VI, and X), enzymes (matrix metalloproteinases II, III, and IX), and vitamin D receptor seem to play considerable roles in the pathology of this disease. There are also many other investigated genes that could somehow take part in the process. However, it seems that more studies are needed to clarify the exact role of genetics in IVDD.

Frequency of Vertebral Endplate Modic Changes in Patients with Unstable Lumbar Spine and Its Effect on Surgical Outcome.

STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PURPOSE: In this study, we investigated the frequency of vertebral endplate Modic changes (MCs) and their effects on surgical outcomes in patients with unstable lumbar spines. OVERVIEW OF LITERATURE: Signal changes in endplates have been classified into three types by Modic. The prognostic role of MCs has been investigated in various spinal disorders. METHODS: A series of 70 patients with clinical and radiographic unstable lumbar spine were included in the study. Endplate signal intensity was determined according to Modic classification. All patients underwent instrumented posterolateral fusion. Functional evaluation was made using the visual analog scale (VAS) and Oswestry disability index (ODI). RESULTS: Eighteen patients (26%) had normal endplate intensity, 31 patients (44%) had MC type I, 20 patients (28%) had MC type II, and one patient (1.4%) had MC type III. Pain level VAS and ODI decreased significantly from the preoperative evaluation to the six-month and one-year postoperative evaluations. The surgical outcome (VAS and ODI) was not significantly different between the various types of MC. CONCLUSIONS: Posterolateral fusion is an effective treatment in patients with unstable lumbar spines. MC do not have a significant effect on the surgical outcome of these patients.

Pial arteriovenous fistula with giant varices: report of two cases with good surgical outcome.

Pial arteriovenous fistulas (pAVF) are rare vascular lesions consisting of one or more arterial connections to a single venous channel without any intervening nidus of vessels or capillaries. Case 1: A 65-year-old woman with a complaint of headache and left hand paresthesia was referred to us. Magnetic resonance imaging showed a large saccular lesion with signal void in the posterior part of the right sylvian fissure and catheter angiography showed a giant venous aneurysm fed by one branch of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) and draining into the vein of Trolard. Case 2: A 12-year-old boy was transferred to our hospital with a history of sudden loss of consciousness and hemiplegia. Brain computed tomography revealed a massive hemorrhagic mass in the right hemisphere and cerebral angiography showed a pAVF with a large aneurysmal varix, which was fed by multiple branches of the right MCA and draining into the superior sagittal sinus. Both patients underwent craniotomy and after ligation of vascular connections, aneurysmal varices were removed completely. Surgical resection can be a safe method for treatment of pAVFs, particularly in those with large varices.

Intramedullary spinal cord metastasis from endometrioid adenocarcinoma.

Intramedullary spinal cord metastases are rare .The majority of these metastases reportedly spread from lung cancer in the cervical region; however, they have been seen to arise from a variety of other primary sources. Here, we report what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first known case of an intramedullary spinal cord metastatic lesion in the conus region arising from primary endometrioid adenocarcinoma.