Analysis of mutational history of multidrug-resistant genotypes with a mutagenetic tree model.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can develop resistance to all antiretroviral drugs. Multidrug resistance, however, is a rare event in modern HIV treatment, but can be life-threatening, particular in patients with very long therapy histories and in areas with limited access to novel drugs. To understand the evolution of multidrug resistance, we analyzed the EuResist database to uncover the accumulation of mutations over time. We hypothesize that the accumulation of resistance mutations is not acquired simultaneously and randomly across viral genotypes but rather tends to follow a predetermined order. The knowledge of this order might help to elucidate potential mechanisms of multidrug resistance. Our evolutionary model shows an almost monotonic increase of resistance with each acquired mutation, including less well-known nucleoside reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitor-related mutations like K223Q, L228H, and Q242H. Mutations within the integrase (IN) (T97A, E138A/K G140S, Q148H, N155H) indicate high probability of multidrug resistance. Hence, these IN mutations also tend to be observed together with mutations in the protease (PR) and RT. We followed up with an analysis of the mutation-specific error rates of our model given the data. We identified several mutations with unusual rates (PR: M41L, L33F, IN: G140S). This could imply the existence of previously unknown virus variants in the viral quasispecies. In conclusion, our bioinformatics model supports the analysis and understanding of multidrug resistance.

European Cohorts of patients and schools to Advance Response to Epidemics (EuCARE): a cluster randomised interventional and observational study protocol to investigate the relationship between schools and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: Contradictory results were reported on the role of school closure/reopening on the overall SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate, as well as on which kind and level of mitigation measures implemented in schools may be effective in limiting its diffusion. Some recent studies were reassuring, showing that opening did not increase the community spread, although teachers and families are worried about the high class density. On the other hand, distance learning was associated with a negative impact on learning, sociability and psychological health, especially in vulnerable children. As it becomes clear that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will last for a long time, there is a high need for studies and solutions to support safe schools opening based on scientific evidence of harms and benefits. The Lolli-Methode (LM) is a strategy for epidemiological surveillance and early intervention aiming at SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks' reduction in schools, relying on polymerase chain reaction analysis of saliva samples. METHODS: In this cluster randomised trial protocol, we aim to determine whether the LM is useful to support schools opening and to reduce clusters and attack rates in schools, compared with the standard of care (SoC) surveillance by public health departments. This multicenter study will enrol 440 classes (around 8800 students, teachers and other personnel) from two countries, cluster randomised to LM or SoC. The samples from the pools will be collected and tested using PCR-based techniques. Test results will be combined with questionnaires filled in by children, parents, schoolteachers, and principals, concerning ongoing mitigation measures, their perceived psychological impact and other health and socio-economic information. An ancillary observational study will be carried out to study the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in schools, frequencies and size of clusters and attack rates, to compare the effectiveness of the different preventive measures adopted and to evaluate psychological issues in students and teachers in relation to the pandemic's containment measures. DISCUSSION: By the end of this study, we will have defined and characterised the applicability of the LM for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance, as well as the impact of pandemic preventive measures on children and teachers. Trial registration International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number: NCT05396040, 27.05.2022.

Effectiveness of integrase strand transfer inhibitors in HIV-infected treatment-experienced individuals across Europe.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the effectiveness and durability of integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based regimens in pre-treated subjects. METHODS: Treatment-experienced individuals starting an INSTI-based regimen during 2012-2019 were selected from the INTEGRATE collaborative study. The time to virological failure [VF: one measurement of viral load (VL) ≥ 1000 copies/mL or two ≥ 50 copies/ml or one VL measurement ≥ 50 copies/mL followed by treatment change] and to INSTI discontinuation were evaluated. RESULTS: Of 13 560 treatments analysed, 4284 were from INSTI-naïve, non-viraemic (IN-NV) individuals, 1465 were from INSTI-naïve, viraemic (IN-V) individuals, 6016 were from INSTI-experienced, non-viraemic (IE-NV) individuals and 1795 were from INSTI-experienced, viraemic (IE-V) individuals. Major INSTI drug resistance mutations (DRMs) were previously detected in 4/519 (0.8%) IN-NV, 3/394 (0.8%) IN-V, 7/1510 (0.5%) IE-NV and 25/935 (2.7%) IE-V individuals. The 1-year estimated probabilities of VF were 3.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.5-3.8] in IN-NV, 18.4% (95% CI: 15.8-21.2) in IN-V, 4.2% (95% CI: 3.6-4.9) in IE-NV and 23.9% (95% CI: 20.9-26.9) in IE-V subjects. The 1-year estimated probabilities of INSTI discontinuation were 12.1% (95% CI: 11.1-13.0) in IN-NV, 19.6% (95% CI: 17.5-21.6) in IN-V, 10.8% (95% CI: 10.0-11.6) in IE-NV and 21.7% (95% CI: 19.7-23.5) in IE-V subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Both VF and INSTI discontinuation occur at substantial rates in viraemic subjects. Detection of DRMs in a proportion of INSTI-experienced individuals makes INSTI resistance testing mandatory after failure.

Effectiveness of integrase strand transfer inhibitor-based regimens in HIV-infected treatment-naive individuals: results from a European multi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: INSTIs have become a pillar of first-line ART. Real-world data are needed to assess their effectiveness in routine care. OBJECTIVES: We analysed ART-naive patients who started INSTI-based regimens in 2012-19 whose data were collected by INTEGRATE, a European collaborative study including seven national cohorts. METHODS: Kaplan-Meier analyses assessed time to virological failure (VF), defined as one viral load (VL) ≥1000 copies/mL, two consecutive VLs ≥50 copies/mL, or one VL ≥50 copies/mL followed by treatment change after ≥24 weeks of follow-up, and time to INSTIs discontinuation (INSTI-DC) for any reason. Factors associated with VF and INSTI-DC were explored by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 2976 regimens started, 1901 (63.9%) contained dolutegravir, 631 (21.2%) elvitegravir and 444 (14.9%) raltegravir. The 1 year estimated probabilities of VF and INSTI-DC were 5.6% (95% CI 4.5-6.7) and 16.2% (95% CI 14.9-17.6), respectively, and were higher for raltegravir versus both elvitegravir and dolutegravir. A baseline VL ≥100 000 copies/mL [adjusted HR (aHR) 2.17, 95% CI 1.55-3.04, P < 0.001] increased the risk of VF, while a pre-treatment CD4 count ≥200 cells/mm3 reduced the risk (aHR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74, P < 0.001). Predictors of INSTI-DC included use of raltegravir versus dolutegravir (aHR 3.03, 95% CI 2.34-3.92, P < 0.001), use of >3 drugs versus 3 drugs (aHR 2.73, 95% CI 1.55-4.79, P < 0.001) and starting ART following availability of dolutegravir (aHR 0.64, 95% CI 0.48-0.83, P = 0.001). Major INSTI mutations indicative of transmitted drug resistance occurred in 2/1114 (0.2%) individuals. CONCLUSIONS: This large multi-cohort study indicates high effectiveness of elvitegravir- or dolutegravir-based first-line ART in routine practice across Europe.

VIRULIGN: fast codon-correct alignment and annotation of viral genomes.

SUMMARY: Virus sequence data are an essential resource for reconstructing spatiotemporal dynamics of viral spread as well as to inform treatment and prevention strategies. However, the potential benefit of these applications critically depends on accurate and correctly annotated alignments of genetically heterogeneous data. VIRULIGN was built for fast codon-correct alignments of large datasets, with standardized and formalized genome annotation and various alignment export formats. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: VIRULIGN is freely available at https://github.com/rega-cev/virulign as an open source software project. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online.

Tracing the Impact of Public Health Interventions on HIV-1 Transmission in Portugal Using Molecular Epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of temporal changes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission patterns can help to elucidate the impact of preventive strategies and public health policies. METHODS: Portuguese HIV-1 subtype B and G pol genetic sequences were appended to global reference data sets to identify country-specific transmission clades. Bayesian birth-death models were used to estimate subtype-specific effective reproductive numbers (Re). Discrete trait analysis (DTA) was used to quantify mixing among transmission groups. RESULTS: We identified 5 subtype B Portuguese clades (26-79 sequences) and a large monophyletic subtype G Portuguese clade (236 sequences). We estimated that major shifts in HIV-1 transmission occurred around 1999 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 1998-2000) and 2000 (95% BCI, 1998-2001) for subtypes B and G, respectively. For subtype B, Re dropped from 1.91 (95% BCI, 1.73-2.09) to 0.62 (95% BCI,.52-.72). For subtype G, Re decreased from 1.49 (95% BCI, 1.39-1.59) to 0.72 (95% BCI, .63-.8). The DTA suggests that people who inject drugs (PWID) and heterosexuals were the source of most (>80%) virus lineage transitions for subtypes G and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated declines in Re coincide with the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy and the scale-up of harm reduction for PWID. Inferred transmission events across transmission groups emphasize the importance of prevention efforts for bridging populations.

An Evolutionary Model-Based Approach To Quantify the Genetic Barrier to Drug Resistance in Fast-Evolving Viruses and Its Application to HIV-1 Subtypes and Integrase Inhibitors.

Viral pathogens causing global disease burdens are often characterized by high rates of evolutionary changes. The extensive viral diversity at baseline can shorten the time to escape from therapeutic or immune selective pressure and alter mutational pathways. The impact of genotypic background on the barrier to resistance can be difficult to capture, particularly for agents in experimental stages or that are recently approved or expanded into new patient populations. We developed an evolutionary model-based counting method to quickly quantify the population genetic potential to resistance and assess population differences. We demonstrate its applicability to HIV-1 integrase inhibitors, as their increasing use globally contrasts with limited availability of non-B subtype resistant sequence data and corresponding knowledge gap. A large sequence data set encompassing most prevailing HIV-1 subtypes and resistance-associated mutations of currently approved integrase inhibitors was investigated. A complex interplay between codon predominance, polymorphisms, and associated evolutionary costs resulted in a subtype-dependent varied genetic potential for 15 resistance mutations against integrase inhibitors. While we confirm the lower genetic barrier of subtype B for G140S, we convincingly discard a similar effect previously suggested for G140C. A supplementary analysis for HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors identified a lower genetic barrier for K65R in subtype C through differential codon usage not reported before. To aid evolutionary interpretations of genomic differences for antiviral strategies, we advanced existing counting methods with increased sensitivity to identify subtype dependencies of resistance emergence. Future applications include novel HIV-1 drug classes or vaccines, as well as other viral pathogens.

Tuberculosis care for migrant patients in Portugal: a mixed methods study with primary healthcare providers.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is still a major global health problem. The increasing number of cases observed among foreign-born populations contrasts with the decreasing trends observed in later years in some high-income countries. Healthcare providers are key interveners in the control of TB and HIV-TB infections. In this study, we aimed to explore the perspectives of healthcare providers working in primary care in Portugal about the provision of TB care for migrant patients with TB or HIV-TB co-infection. METHODS: We applied a mixed-methods approach using an online survey and semi-structured interviews with primary healthcare providers. A total of 120 Portuguese healthcare providers participated in the survey, and 17 were interviewed. Survey and interview data were analysed applying descriptive statistics and thematic analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Migrants' lack of knowledge on TB disease and its symptoms was the main reason for advanced-stage presentation of cases. Their high mobility and social isolation affect adherence to treatment. The providers also listed several barriers to migrants' access and use of TB care. The most frequently referred were limited socioeconomic resources, complex bureaucracy at the point of access and registration for healthcare services, especially for undocumented migrants, and obstacles for social protection. Providers also advocated more training initiatives on migrants' health, social and cultural contexts, on HIV and TB integrated care, and on TB scientific update for general practitioners and nurses working at primary healthcare centres. CONCLUSIONS: Future efforts should provide measures to overcome social, economic and administrative obstacles to care for TB-infected migrants, and promote regular training initiatives for national healthcare providers in order to raise awareness and facilitate better care to culturally diverse populations with TB.

Multiple Class I and Class II Haemophilus ducreyi Strains Cause Cutaneous Ulcers in Children on an Endemic Island.

Background: Together with Treponema pallidum subspecies pertenue, Haemophilus ducreyi is a major cause of exudative cutaneous ulcers (CUs) in children. For H. ducreyi, both class I and class II strains, asymptomatic colonization, and environmental reservoirs have been found in endemic regions, but the epidemiology of this infection is unknown. Methods: Based on published whole-genome sequences of H. ducreyi CU strains, a single-locus typing system was developed and applied to H. ducreyi-positive CU samples obtained prior to, 1 year after, and 2 years after the initiation of a mass drug administration campaign to eradicate CU on Lihir Island in Papua New Guinea. DNA from the CU samples was amplified with class I and class II dsrA-specific primers and sequenced; the samples were classified into dsrA types, which were geospatially mapped. Selection pressure analysis was performed on the dsrA sequences. Results: Thirty-seven samples contained class I sequences, 27 contained class II sequences, and 13 contained both. There were 5 class I and 4 class II types circulating on the island; 3 types accounted for approximately 87% of the strains. The composition and geospatial distribution of the types varied little over time and there was no evidence of selection pressure. Conclusions: Multiple strains of H. ducreyi cause CU on an endemic island and coinfections are common. In contrast to recent findings with T. pallidum pertenue, strain composition is not affected by antibiotic pressure, consistent with environmental reservoirs of H. ducreyi. Such reservoirs must be addressed to achieve eradication of H. ducreyi.

Cruising Venues as a Context for HIV Risky Behavior Among Men Who Have Sex With Men.

We examined differences in sexual risk behaviors, HIV prevalence, and demographic characteristics between men who have sex with men (MSM) who visit different types of venues to meet sexual partners, and identified correlates of high-risk behaviors. A cross-sectional behavioral survey was conducted with a venue-based sample of 1011 MSM in Portugal. Overall, 36.3 % of MSM usually visit cruising venues to meet sexual partners (63.7 % only visit social gay venues). Cruising venues' visitors reported higher HIV prevalence (14.6 % [95 % CI 11-18 %] vs. 5.5 % [95 % CI 4-7 %]). Visiting cruising venues was more likely among those older, reporting high number of male sexual partners, group sex, and unprotected anal sex with a partner whose HIV status was unknown. Cruising venues play an important role in increasing risk of HIV transmission among MSM who frequent them. Venue-focused behavioral interventions that promote healthy sexual behaviors are needed.

Bridging epidemiology with population genetics in a low incidence MSM-driven HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Central Europe.

BACKGROUND: The HIV-1 epidemic in Slovenia, a small Central European country, has some characteristics that make it an ideal model to study HIV-1 transmission. The epidemic is predominantly affecting men who have sex with men infected with subtype B (89% of all patients), has a low prevalence (less than 1/1000) and is growing slowly. The aim of the present study was to analyze in detail the evolutionary history and the determinants of transmission. METHODS: A total of 223 partial pol gene sequences from therapy naïve individuals were included, representing 52% of all patients newly diagnosed in 13 years (2000-2012) and analyzed together with genetically similar worldwide sequences, selected in a BLAST search. RESULTS: Combined analysis (maximum likelihood and Bayesian) of HIV-1 transmission chains revealed 8 major clusters (n ≥ 10 patients), 1 group of 4 patients, 2 trios and 12 transmission pairs, thus leaving only 43 (19.3%) Slovenian patients infected with subtype B without a local epidemiological link, indicating a predominance of local transmission of HIV-1 infection. Bayesian analysis performed on a full set of sequences estimated several introductions of HIV-1 into Slovenia, with the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the earliest Slovenian cluster dated to the late 1980s, although tMRCAs obtained from separate independent analysis of each cluster showed considerably more recent estimates. These findings indicate inconsistencies in molecular clock estimation, which we further explored. We hypothesize that these inconsistent dating estimates across the tree could be caused by an evolutionary rate acceleration of HIV-1 after entering the Slovenia epidemic that is not taken into account by the molecular clock model. It could be caused by a lower transmission rate in this setting, as demonstrated by the low epidemic growth rate estimated by Bayesian skyline plot analysis. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-1 subtype B was introduced into Slovenia at several time points from the late 80s onward. The majority of patients had a local transmission link, indicating a closed HIV community. The observed slower epidemic rate suggests that individuals with a long-lasting infection are the driving force of the epidemic in this region.

Increase in transmitted resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Europe.

BACKGROUND: One out of ten newly diagnosed patients in Europe was infected with a virus carrying a drug resistant mutation. We analysed the patterns over time for transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) using data from the European Spread program. METHODS: Clinical, epidemiological and virological data from 4317 patients newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between 2002 and 2007 were analysed. Patients were enrolled using a pre-defined sampling strategy. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of TDRM in this period was 8.9% (95% CI: 8.1-9.8). Interestingly, significant changes over time in TDRM caused by the different drug classes were found. Whereas nucleoside resistance mutations remained constant at 5%, a significant decline in protease inhibitors resistance mutations was observed, from 3.9% in 2002 to 1.6% in 2007 (p = 0.001). In contrast, resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) doubled from 2.0% in 2002 to 4.1% in 2007 (p = 0.004) with 58% of viral strains carrying a K103N mutation. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these temporal changes could not be explained by large clusters of TDRM. CONCLUSION: During the years 2002 to 2007 transmitted resistance to NNRTI has doubled to 4% in Europe. The frequent use of NNRTI in first-line regimens and the clinical impact of NNRTI mutations warrants continued monitoring.

HIV-1 drug resistance and genetic diversity in people with HIV-1 in Cape Verde.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the genetic diversity and drug resistance profiles of people with HIV-1 failing ART in Cape Verde (CV). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study conducted between January 2019 and December 2021 in 24 health centres on the islands of Santiago and São Vicente. METHODS: The HIV-1 pol gene was sequenced in individuals with a detectable viral load. HIV-1 genetic diversity was determined by phylogenetic analysis. Drug resistance mutation patterns and resistance phenotypes were estimated using the Stanford algorithm. RESULTS: Viral load was detected in 73 of 252 (29%) enrolled participants and sequencing data were produced for 58 (79%) participants. CRF02 AG strains predominated (46.5%), followed by subtype G (22.4%). Most patients (80%) had mutations conferring resistance to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) (67%), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (55%), integrase inhibitors (10%) and/or protease inhibitors (7%) used in Cape Verde, a significant increase compared with a study conducted in 2010-2011. The most common mutations were M184V/I (43%), K103N/S (36%) and G190A/S (19%). NNRTI resistance was associated with younger age and exposure to two or more drug regimens. CONCLUSION: The HIV-1 epidemic in Cape Verde is mainly driven by CRF02_AG and subtype G. Resistance to NNRTIs and/or NRTIs is highly prevalent and resistance to LPV/r and DTG is emerging. Our results support the use of DTG-based first-line ART and protease inhibitor-based regimens for patients with virological failure, but emerging resistance to LPV/r and DTG is a concern. Continued monitoring of drug resistance is essential to ensure adequate healthcare for PWH in Cape Verde.

Dynamics and features of transmission clusters of HIV-1 subtypes in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

Background: Molecular epidemiology techniques allow us to track the HIV-1 transmission dynamics. Herein, we combined genetic, clinical and epidemiological data collected during routine clinical treatment to evaluate the dynamics and characteristics of transmission clusters of the most prevalent HIV-1 subtypes in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted with 2,518 persons living with HIV (PLWH) from 53 cities in São Paulo state between Jan 2004 to Feb 2015. The phylogenetic tree of protease/reverse transcriptase (PR/RT) regions was reconstructed by PhyML and ClusterPicker used to infer the transmission clusters based on Shimodaira-Hasegawa (SH) greater than 90% (phylogenetic support) and genetic distance less than 6%. Results: Of a total of 2,518 sequences, 2,260 were pure subtypes at the PR/RT region, being B (88%), F1 (8.1%), and C (4%). About 21.2% were naïve with a transmitted drug resistance (TDR) rate of 11.8%. A total of 414 (18.3%) of the sequences clustered. These clusters were less evident in subtype B (17.7%) and F1 (15.1%) than in subtype C (40.2%). Clustered sequences were from PLWH at least 5 years younger than non-clustered among subtypes B (p < 0.001) and C (p = 0.037). Men who have sex with men (MSM) predominated the cluster in subtype B (51%), C (85.7%), and F1 (63.6%; p < 0.05). The TDR rate in clustered patients was 15.4, 13.6, and 3.1% for subtypes B, F1, and C, respectively. Most of the infections in subtypes B (80%), C (64%), and F1 (59%) occurred within the state of São Paulo. The metropolitan area of São Paulo presented a high level of endogenous clustering for subtypes B and C. The São Paulo city had 46% endogenous clusters of subtype C. Conclusion: Our findings showed that MSM, antiretroviral therapy in Treatment-Naive (ART-naïve) patients, and HIV1-C, played an important role in the HIV epidemic in the São Paulo state. Further studies in transmission clusters are needed to guide the prevention intervention.

Applying Next-Generation Sequencing to Track HIV-1 Drug Resistance Mutations Circulating in Portugal.

BACKGROUND: The global scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) offers significant health benefits by suppressing HIV-1 replication and increasing CD4 cell counts. However, incomplete viral suppression poses a potential threat for the emergence of drug resistance mutations (DRMs), limiting ART options, and increasing HIV transmission. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the patterns of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and acquired drug resistance (ADR) among HIV-1 patients in Portugal. METHODS: Data were obtained from 1050 HIV-1 patient samples submitted for HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) testing from January 2022 to June 2023. Evaluation of DRM affecting viral susceptibility to nucleoside/tide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), protease inhibitors (PIs), and integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) was performed using an NGS technology, the Vela Diagnostics Sentosa SQ HIV-1 Genotyping Assay. RESULTS: About 71% of patients were ART naïve and 29% were experienced. Overall, 20% presented with any DRM. The prevalence of TDR and ADR was 12.6% and 41.1%, respectively. M184V, T215S, and M41L mutations for NRTI, K103N for NNRTI, and M46I/L for PIs were frequent in naïve and treated patients. E138K and R263K mutations against INSTIs were more frequent in naïve than treated patients. TDR and ADR to INSTIs were 0.3% and 7%, respectively. Patients aged 50 or over (OR: 1.81, p = 0.015), originating from Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOPs) (OR: 1.55, p = 0.050), HIV-1 subtype G (OR: 1.78, p = 0.010), and with CD4 < 200 cells/mm3 (OR: 1.70, p = 0.043) were more likely to present with DRMs, while the males (OR: 0.63, p = 0.003) with a viral load between 4.1 to 5.0 Log10 (OR: 0.55, p = 0.003) or greater than 5.0 Log10 (OR: 0.52, p < 0.001), had lower chances of presenting with DRMs. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first evidence on TDR and ADR to INSTI regimens in followed up patients presenting for healthcare in Portugal. We observed low levels of TDR to INSTIs among ART-naïve and moderate levels in ART-exposed patients. Regimens containing PIs could be an alternative second line in patients with intermediate or high-level drug resistance, especially against second-generation INSTIs (dolutegravir, bictegravir, and cabotegravir).

Serological screening in a large-scale municipal survey in Cascais, Portugal, during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons for future pandemic preparedness efforts.

Background: Serological surveys for SARS-CoV-2 were used early in the COVID-19 pandemic to assess epidemiological scenarios. In the municipality of Cascais (Portugal), serological testing combined with a comprehensive socio-demographic, clinical and behavioral questionnaire was offered to residents between May 2020 and beginning of 2021. In this study, we analyze the factors associated with adherence to this municipal initiative, as well as the sociodemographic profile and chronic diseases clinical correlates associated to seropositivity. We aim to contribute with relevant information for future pandemic preparedness efforts. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with non-probabilistic sampling. Citizens residing in Cascais Municipality went voluntarily to blood collection centers to participate in the serological survey. The proportion of participants, stratified by socio-demographic variables, was compared to the census proportions to identify the groups with lower levels of adherence to the survey. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify socio-demographic, clinical and behavioral factors associated with seropositivity. Results: From May 2020 to February 2021, 19,608 participants (9.2% of the residents of Cascais) were included in the study. Based on the comparison to census data, groups with lower adherence to this survey were men, the youngest and the oldest age groups, individuals with lower levels of education and unemployed/inactive. Significant predictors of a reactive (positive) serological test were younger age, being employed or a student, and living in larger households. Individuals with chronic diseases generally showed lower seroprevalence. Conclusion: The groups with low adherence to this voluntary study, as well as the socio-economic contexts identified as more at risk of viral transmission, may be targeted in future pandemic situations. We also found that the individuals with chronic diseases, perceiving higher risk of serious illness, adopted protective behaviors that limited infection rates, revealing that health education on preventive measures was effective for these patients.

SARS-CoV-2 trends in Italy, Germany and Portugal and school opening during the period of Omicron variant dominance: A quasi experimental study in the EuCARE project.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the impact of school reopening on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Italy, Germany, and Portugal in autumn 2022 when the Omicron variant was prevalent. METHODS: A prospective international study was conducted using the case reproduction number (Rc) calculated with the time parametrization of Omicron. For Germany and Italy, staggered difference-in-differences analysis was employed to explore the causal relationship between school reopening and Rc changes, accounting for varying reopening dates. In Portugal, interrupted time series analysis was used due to simultaneous school reopenings. Multivariable models were adopted to adjust for confounders. RESULTS: In Italy and Germany, post-reopening Rc estimates were significantly lower compared to those from regions/states that had not yet reopened at the same time points, both in the student population (overall average treatment effect for the treated subpopulation [O-ATT]: -0.80 [95% CI: -0.94;-0.66] for Italy; O-ATT-0.30 [95% CI: -0.36;-0.23] for Germany) and the adult population (O-ATT: -0.04 [95% CI: -0.07;-0.01] for Italy; O-ATT: -0.07 [95% CI: -0.11;-0.03] for Germany). In Portugal, there was a significant decreasing trend in Rc following school reopenings compared to the pre-reopening period (sustained effect: -0.03 [95% CI: -0.04; -0.03] in students; -0.02 [95% CI: -0.03; -0.02] in adults). CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of a causal relationship between school reopenings in autumn 2022 and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 transmission.