Risk-prone territories for spreading tuberculosis, temporal trends and their determinants in a high burden city from São Paulo State, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To identify risk-prone areas for the spread of tuberculosis, analyze spatial variation and temporal trends of the disease in these areas and identify their determinants in a high burden city. METHODS: An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The population was composed of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 and 2017. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using the Loess decomposition method was used. Spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were applied to identify risk areas. Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) was used to detect risk-prone territories with changes in the temporal trend. Finally, Pearson's Chi-square test was performed to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality. RESULTS: Between 2006 and 2017, 1760 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in the municipality. With spatial scanning, four groups of clusters were identified with relative risks (RR) from 0.19 to 0.52, 1.73, 2.07, and 2.68 to 2.72. With the space-time scan, four clusters were also identified with RR of 0.13 (2008-2013), 1.94 (2010-2015), 2.34 (2006 to 2011), and 2.84 (2014-2017). With the SVTT, a cluster was identified with RR 0.11, an internal time trend of growth (+ 0.09%/year), and an external time trend of decrease (- 0.06%/year). Finally, three risk factors and three protective factors that are associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality were identified, being: race/brown color (OR: 1.26), without education (OR: 1.71), retired (OR: 1.35), 15 years or more of study (OR: 0.73), not having HIV (OR: 0.55) and not having diabetes (OR: 0.35). CONCLUSION: The importance of using spatial analysis tools in identifying areas that should be prioritized for TB control is highlighted, and greater attention is necessary for individuals who fit the profile indicated as "at risk" for the disease.

Causes of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis from the perspectives of health providers: challenges and strategies for adherence to treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a serious phenomenon on a global scale that can worsen with the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to understand the perceptions of health professionals about MDR-TB, their strategies to ensure adherence to treatment and their challenges in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in a priority municipality for disease control. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study and recruited 14 health providers (four doctors, three nurses, three nursing technicians, three nursing assistants and a social worker) working in a city in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Remote semi-structured interviews were conducted with the participants. For data analysis, the thematic content analysis technique was applied according to the study's theoretical framework. RESULTS: The study revealed the causes of MDR-TB are associated with poverty, vulnerability, and social risk. A pre-judgement from the providers was observed, namely, all patients do not adhere due their resistance and association with drug abuse or alcoholism. The study also observed difficulty among health providers in helping patients reconstruct and reframe their life projects under a care perspective, which would strengthen adherence. Other issues that weakened adherence were the cuts in social protection and the benefits really necessary to the patients and a challenge for the providers manage that. The participants revealed that their actions were impacted by the pandemic and insecurity and fear manifested by patients after acquiring COVID-19. For alleviating this, medical appointments by telephone, delivery of medicine in the homes of patients and visits by health professionals once per week were provided. CONCLUSION: The study advances knowledge by highlighting the challenges faced by the health system with the adherence of patients with MDR-TB in a context aggravated by the pandemic. An improvement in DOT is really necessary to help the patients reframe their lives without prejudices, face their fears and insecurity, recover their self-esteem and motivate in concluding their treatment.

Determinants of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in São Paulo-Brazil: a multilevel Bayesian analysis of factors associated with individual, community and access to health services.

OBJECTIVE: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains a serious public health problem worldwide. Accordingly, this study sought to identify individual, community and access to health services risk factors for MDR-TB. METHODS: Retrospective cohort of all TB cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 in the state of São Paulo. A Bayesian spatial hierarchical analysis with a multilevel design was carried out. RESULTS: It was identified that the history of previous TB treatment (Odds Ratios [OR]:13.86, 95% credibility interval [95% CI]:12.06-15.93), positive sputum culture test (OR: 5.26, 95% CI: 4.44-6.23), diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.34, 95% CI: 1.87-2.91), residing at a standard address (OR: 2.62, 95% CI: 1.91-3.60), positive sputum smear microscopy (OR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.44-2.12), cavitary pulmonary TB (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.14-1.60) and diagnosis performed due to spontaneous request (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.10-1.46) were associated with MDR-TB. Furthermore, municipalities that performed HIV tests in less than 42.65% of patients with TB (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.25-1.79), that diagnosed TB cases only after death (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.17-1.93) and that had more than 20.16% of their population with income between » and ½ of one minimum wage (OR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.30-1.87) were also related to the MDR-TB. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of these predictive factors may help to develop more comprehensive disease prevention strategies for MDR-TB, avoiding the risks expressed regarding drug resistance expansion.

OBJECTIF: La tuberculose multirésistante (TB-MDR) reste un grave problème de santé publique dans le monde. Cette étude visait à identifier les facteurs de risque individuels, communautaires et d'accès aux services de santé pour la TB-MDR. MÉTHODES: Analyse de cohorte rétrospective de tous les cas de TB diagnostiqués entre 2006 et 2016 dans l'Etat de São Paulo par analyse bayésienne spatiale à plusieurs niveaux. RÉSULTATS: Les antécédents de traitements antituberculeux (Rapports de cotes [OR]: 13,86, Intervalle de confiance à 95% [IC95%]: 12.06-15.93), un test de culture d'expectorations positif (OR: 5,26, IC95%: 4,44-6,23), le diabète sucré (OR: 2,34, IC95%: 1,87-2,91), la résidence à une adresse standard (OR: 2,62, IC95%: 1,91-3,60), la microscopie à frottis positif (OR: 1,74, IC95%: 1,44-2,12), la TB pulmonaire (OR: 1,35, IC95%: 1,14-1,60) et le diagnostic réalisé en raison d'une demande spontanée (OR: 1,26; IC95%: 1,10-1,46) étaient associés à la TB-MDR. Les municipalités qui ont effectué des tests de dépistage du VIH chez moins de 42,65% des patients atteints de TB (OR: 1,50, IC95%: 1,25-1,79), qui ont diagnostiqué des cas de TB uniquement après le décès (OR: 1,50, IC95%: 1,17-1,93) et qui avaient plus de 20,16% de leur population avec un revenu entre » et ½ d'un salaire minimum (OR: 1,56, IC95%: 1,30-1,87) étaient également associées à la TB-MDR. CONCLUSIONS: La connaissance de ces facteurs prédictifs peut aider à développer des stratégies plus complètes de prévention des maladies pour la TB-MDR, en évitant les risques d'extension de la résistance aux médicaments.

Leprosy in urban space, areas of risk for disability and worsening of this health condition in Foz Do Iguaçu, the border region between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a public health problem and a challenge for endemic countries, especially in their border regions where there are intense migration flows. The study aimed to analyse the dynamics of leprosy, in order to identify areas of risk for the occurrence of the disease and disability and places where this health condition is worsening. METHOD: This ecological study considered the new cases of leprosy reported in the municipality of Foz do Iguaçu from 2003 to 2015. Spatial and spatial-temporal scan statistics were used to identify the risk areas for the occurrence of leprosy, as well as the Getis-Ord Gi and Getis-Ord Gi* methods. Areas of risk for disabilities were identified by the scan statistic and kernel density estimation. RESULTS: A total of 840 cases were reported, of which 179 (21.3%) presented Grade 1 or 2 disabilities at the time of diagnosis. Leprosy risk areas were concentrated in the Southern, Eastern and Northeastern Health Districts of the municipality. The cases of Grade 2 disability were observed with higher intensity in regions characterized by high population density and poverty. CONCLUSION: The results of the study have revealed changes in the pattern of areas at risk of leprosy according to the investigated periods. In addition, it was possible to verify disabilities as a condition present in the investigated cases, or that may be related to the late diagnosis of the disease. In the areas of risk identified, patients have reported worse physical disability after diagnostic confirmation, or indicate inadequate clinical examination, reinforcing the need for structuring leprosy control services in a qualified manner.

Using geo-spatial analysis for assessing the risk of hospital admissions due to community-acquired pneumonia in under-5 children and its association with socially vulnerable areas (Brazil).

BACKGROUND: The concentration of under-5 child morbidity and mortality due to pneumonia in developing countries reflects the social inequities. This study aimed to map and assess the spatial risk for hospitalization due to Community-Acquired Pneumonia in children under 5 years of age and its association with vulnerable areas. METHODS: Ecological study in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The study population consisted of hospitalized under-5 children, diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia, in Ribeirão Preto-São Paulo-Brazil, from 2012 to 2013. Data were collected in different databases, by a trained team, between March 2012 and August 2013 and from the 2010 Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The 956 urban census tracts were considered as the units of analysis. The incidence of cases per 10,000 inhabitants was calculated by census tracts during the study period. For the identification of the spatial risk clusters, the Kernel density estimator and the Getis-Ord Gi* technique were performed. Generalized additive models were used to verify the association between areas with social vulnerability and the occurrence of childhood pneumonia. RESULTS: The study included 265 children under the age of five, hospitalized due to community-acquired pneumonia. A concentration of cases was identified in the regions with greater social vulnerability (low income, poor housing conditions and homelessness), as well as a lower occurrence of cases in the most developed and economically privileged area of the city. The majority of the children lived in territories served by traditional primary healthcare units, in which the health surveillance and family and community focus are limited. It is important to highlight that the tracts with the highest degrees of vulnerability, such as those identified as high vulnerability (urban) and very high vulnerability (subnormal urban clusters). CONCLUSIONS: The results contribute to the comprehension of the social factors involved in child hospitalization due to pneumonia, based on the analysis of the spatial distribution. This approach revealed a strategic tool for diagnosing the disparities as well presenting evidences for the planning in health and strength health care system in achieving equity, welfare and social protection of children.

Risk areas for tuberculosis among children and their inequalities in a city from Southeast Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The objective of the study was to identify areas of risk for the appearance of tuberculosis in children and their association with social inequalities in a municipality in southeastern Brazil. METHODS: Ecological study conducted in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil. To identify areas of spatial risk for tuberculosis in children, we used spatial scanning statistics. To analyze the association of cases of childhood tuberculosis with social vulnerability, we used the Social Vulnerability Index of São Paulo, and four explanatory statistical models were listed. RESULTS: There were 96 cases of childhood tuberculosis, of which 90 were geocoded through a process of converting addresses to geographic coordinates. A risk area was identified in the municipality, where children under 15 years old have 3.14 times greater risk of contracting tuberculosis than those living outside this area. The variables identified as risk factors were: number of private and collective households, proportion of children aged 0 to 5 years in the population, proportion of households without per capita income, and the proportion of private households with monthly nominal incomes of up to one quarter of wage minimums. The variables identified as protection factors were the proportion of women under the age of 30 years responsible for the household under and women responsible for the household with an average income over BRL 2344. CONCLUSION: The study showed areas of risk for the occurrence of tuberculosis in children. The study is in line with the End TB Strategy and the 2030 Agenda, which aim to support strategic actions and, therefore, save the lives of children through the systematic, intensified, and comprehensive identification of children with tuberculosis respiratory symptoms in the community.

Detection of risk clusters for deaths due to tuberculosis specifically in areas of southern Brazil where the disease was supposedly a non-problem.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is the infectious disease that kills the most people worldwide. The use of geoepidemiological techniques to demonstrate the dynamics of the disease in vulnerable communities is essential for its control. Thus, this study aimed to identify risk clusters for TB deaths and their variation over time. METHODS: This ecological study considered cases of TB deaths in residents of Londrina, Brazil between 2008 and 2015. We used standard, isotonic scan statistics for the detection of spatial risk clusters. The Poisson discrete model was adopted with the high and low rates option used for 10, 30 and 50% of the population at risk, with circular format windows and 999 replications considered the maximum cluster size. Getis-Ord Gi* (Gi*) statistics were used to diagnose hotspot areas for TB mortality. Kernel density was used to identify whether the clusters changed over time. RESULTS: For the standard version, spatial risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 4.9 (95% CI 2.6-9.4), 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7), respectively. For the isotonic spatial statistics, the risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 2.8 (95% CI: 1.5-5.1), 2.7 (95% CI: 1.6-4.4), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9), respectively. All risk clusters were located in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Additionally, through Gi*, hotspot areas were identified in the eastern and western regions. CONCLUSIONS: There were important risk areas for tuberculosis mortality in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Risk clusters for tuberculosis deaths were observed in areas where TB mortality was supposedly a non-problem. The isotonic and Gi* statistics were more sensitive for the detection of clusters in areas with a low number of cases; however, their applicability in public health is still restricted.

How do social-economic differences in urban areas affect tuberculosis mortality in a city in the tri-border region of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the "End TB Strategy", which aims to reduce tuberculosis (TB) mortality by 95% by 2035, Brazil has made a commitment to this, however, one challenge is achieving the goal in the border region, where the TB situation is more critical. The proposal was to analyse the spatial mortality due to TB and its socio-economic determinants in the general population, around the border areas of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, as well as the temporal trend in this region. METHOD: This ecological study considered the cases of TB deaths of residents of Foz do Iguaçu (BR), with its units of analysis being the census sectors. The standardized mortality rate was calculated for each area. Socioeconomic variables data were obtained from the 2010 Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The scan statistic was applied to calculate the spatial relative risk (RR), considering a 95% confidence interval (CI). Spatial dependence was analysed using the Global Bivariate Moran I and Local Bivariate Moran I (LISA) to test the relationship between the socioeconomic conditions of the urban areas and mortality from TB. Analysis of the temporal trend was also performed using the Prais-Winsten test. RESULTS: A total of 74 cases of TB death were identified, of which 53 (71.6%) were male and 51 (68.9%) people of white skin colour. The mortality rate ranged from 0.28 to 22.75 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. A spatial relative risk area was identified, RR = 5.07 (95% CI 1.79-14.30). Mortality was associated with: proportion of people of brown skin colour (I: 0.0440, p = 0.033), income (low income I: - 0.0611, p = 0.002; high income I: - 0.0449, p = 0.026) and density of residents (3 and 4 residents, I: 0.0537, p = 0.007; 10 or more residents, I: - 0.0390, p = 0.035). There was an increase in the mortality rate in people of brown skin colour (6.1%; 95% CI = 0.029, 0.093). CONCLUSION: Death due to TB was associated with income, race resident density and social conditions. Although the TB mortality rate is stationary in the general population, it is increasing among people of brown skin colour.

[Family Health Strategy, private health care, and inequalities in access to mammography in BrazilEstrategia de Salud Familiar, salud suplementaria y desigualdad en el acceso a la mamografía en Brasil]. / Estratégia Saúde da Família, saúde suplementar e desigualdade no acesso à mamografia no Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between access to mammography and coverage by private health insurance or by the public healthcare system through the Family Health Strategy (FHS). METHOD: An ecological study was performed with data obtained from the Unified Health System Data Processing Department (DATASUS). Time trends were analyzed using the Prais-Winsten method, having the Brazilian federal units as units of analysis. Multiple linear regression was used to investigate the relationship between the dependent variable - women aged 50 to 69 years who never had a mammogram - and the independent variables (coverage by the FHS or private health care and socioeconomic aspects). RESULTS: Acre was the only Brazilian state for which an increasing growth trend in private health care was not observed. Roraima, Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, and Paraíba showed a stable trend for FHS coverage, whereas all other federal units had increasing coverage. A significant association was observed between never having had a mammogram at 50 to 69 years of age and the variables mean per capita income and FHS and private health care coverage (R2 = 0.77; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Unequal access to mammography is a reality in Brazil. Both private health care and the FHS have contributed to improve health care accessibility for Brazilian women.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar la asociación entre el acceso a la mamografía en Brasil y la cobertura prestada por la Estrategia de Salud Familiar (ESF) y por la salud suplementaria. MÉTODOS: Se realizó un estudio ecológico con datos obtenidos del Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud (DATASUS). La tendencia de la serie temporal fue analizada mediante el método de Prais-Winsten utilizando como unidades de análisis las entidades federativas brasileñas. Para investigar la relación entre la variable dependiente ­mujeres de 50 a 69 años que nunca se habían realizado una mamografía­ y las independientes, de cobertura por la ESF o salud suplementaria y las variables socioeconómicas, se realizó un análisis de regresión lineal múltiple. RESULTADOS: Acre fue el único estado que no presentó una tendencia creciente para la cobertura por la salud suplementaria. Roraima, Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte y Paraíba presentaron una tendencia estacionaria para la cobertura por la ESF, mientras que las otras entidades federativas mostraron una cobertura en ascenso. Se observó una asociación significativa entre el hecho de nunca haberse realizado una mamografía entre los 50 y los 69 años y las variables renta media per cápita, cobertura por la ESF y la salud suplementaria (R2 = 0,77; P <0,001). CONCLUSIÓN: En Brasil, la desigualdad en el acceso a la mamografía es una realidad. Tanto la salud suplementaria como la Estrategia de Salud Familiar han contribuido a mejorar el acceso de estas mujeres a la mamografía.

Identifying Hotspots of People Diagnosed of Tuberculosis with Addiction to Alcohol, Tobacco, and Other Drugs through a Geospatial Intelligence Application in Communities from Southern Brazil.

(1) Background: tuberculosis (TB) is considered one of the leading causes of death worldwide by a single infectious agent. This study aimed to identify hotspots of people diagnosed with tuberculosis and abusive use of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs in communities through a geospatial intelligence application; (2) Methods: an ecological study with a spatio-temporal approach. We considered tuberculosis cases diagnosed and registered in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, which presented information on alcoholism, smoking, and drug abuse. Spatial Variations in Temporal Trends (SVTT) and scan statistics were applied for the identification of Hotspots; (3) Results: between the study period, about 29,499 cases of tuberculosis were reported. When we applied the SVTT for alcoholism, three Hotspots were detected, one of which was protective (RR: 0.08-CI95%: 0.02-0.32) and two at risk (RR: 1.42-CI95%: 1.11-1.73; RR: 1.39-CI95%: 1.28-1.50). Regarding smoking, two risk clusters were identified (RR: 1.15-CI95%: 1.01-1.30; RR: 1.68-CI95%: 1.54-1.83). For other drugs, a risk cluster was found (RR: 1.13-CI95%: 0.99-1.29) and two protections (RR: 0.70-CI95%: 0.63-0.77; RR: 0.76-CI95%: 0.65-0.89); (4) Conclusion: it was evidenced that in the communities being studied, there exists a problem of TB with drug addiction. The disordered use of these substances may harm a person's brain and behavior and lead to an inability to continue their treatment, putting the community at further risk for TB.

Impact and trend of COVID-19 in the Brazilian prison system: an ecological study. / Impacto e tendência da COVID-19 no sistema penitenciário do Brasil: um estudo ecológico.

Given the rapid spread of new coronavirus within the prison system, this study's objective was to identify spatial clusters for the occurrence of COVID-19 in the incarcerated population and analyze temporal trends of confirmed cases in the Brazilian prison system. This ecological study considered the five Brazilian macro-regions to be units of analysis, with its 26 states and the Federal District. The population was composed of all COVID-19 cases confirmed from April 14th to August 31st, 2020. The source used to collect data was the COVID-19 Monitoring Panel from the National Prison Department. Descriptive analysis, scan statistics, and time series were performed. A total of 18,767 COVID-19 cases were reported among the incarcerated population, 4,724 in São Paulo. The scan statistic analysis resulted in 14 spatial risk clusters for COVID-19 among persons deprived of liberty; the highest-risk cluster was in the Federal District. Although the country ends the series with a decreasing behavior, a growing trend was verified in most of the study period. The conclusion is that there is a need to implement mass testing among the incarcerated population while continually monitoring and recording COVID-19 cases.

Tendo em vista a rápida disseminação do novo coronavírus no sistema prisional, o presente trabalho teve como objetivos identificar aglomerados espaciais para ocorrência da COVID-19 na população privada de liberdade (PPL) e analisar a tendência temporal dos casos confirmados no sistema penitenciário do Brasil. Estudo ecológico que considerou como unidades de análise as cinco macrorregiões do Brasil, seus 26 estados e o Distrito Federal. A população foi composta por todos os casos de COVID-19 confirmados, no período de 14 de abril a 31 de agosto de 2020. A fonte de dados utilizada foi o Painel de Monitoramento dos casos de COVID-19 nos sistemas prisionais do Departamento Penitenciário Nacional. Realizou-se análise descritiva, estatística de varredura e análise da tendência temporal. Foram notificados 18.767 casos de COVID-19 na PPL, dos quais 4.724 ocorreram no estado de São Paulo. A estatística de varredura possibilitou a identificação de 14 clusters espaciais de risco para COVID-19 na PPL, sendo o aglomerado de maior risco formado pelo Distrito Federal. Embora o país finalize a série com um comportamento decrescente, observa-se que no período de investigação a tendência apresentou um comportamento maioritariamente crescente. Evidencia-se a necessidade de testagem em massa, monitoramento e registro contínuo dos casos de COVID-19 na PPL do país.

Social inequalities and their association with the leprosy burden in a Brazilian city of low endemicity: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the association between social inequalities and the leprosy burden in a low endemicity scenario in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This ecological study was carried out in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering leprosy cases notified from 2006 to 2016. Regarding social inequalities, dimensions related to high household density, literacy, home occupation conditions, health conditions, household income, ethnicity and age were considered. The generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used to verify the association between the social inequalities and leprosy burden. RESULTS: The increase in men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages was associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37%, 7.10% and 2.44%, respectively). Regarding the ethnicity variables, the increase in the proportion of men (black) and women (mixed race) with no schooling was associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% and 4.02%, respectively). Finally, for people of mixed race or ethnicity, the increase in the proportion of households with 1/2 to 1 minimum wage was related to a relative decrease in the total number of cases (-4.90%). CONCLUSION: The results show that the determinants associated with the increase in leprosy cases are similar to those in Brazilian hyperendemic regions, and that even in cities with low endemicity, social inequality is one of the main determinants of the disease.

Survival time among patients who were diagnosed with tuberculosis, the precocious deaths and associated factors in southern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: A diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) does not mean that the disease will be treated successfully, since death may occur even among those who are known to the health services. Here, we aimed to analyze patient survival time from the diagnosis of TB to death, precocious deaths, and associated factors in southern Brazil. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study with patients who were diagnosed with TB and who died due to the disease between 2008 and 2015 in southern Brazil. The starting point for measuring survival time was the patient's diagnosis date. Techniques for survival analysis were employed, including the Kaplan-Meier test and Cox's regression. A mixed-effect model was applied for identifying the associated factors to precocious deaths. Hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated. We defined p value <0.05 as statistically significant for all statistics applied. RESULTS: One hundred forty-six patients were included in the survival analysis, observing a median survival time of 23.5 days. We observed that alcoholism (HR=1.55, 95% CI=1.04-2.30) and being male (HR=6.49, 95% CI=1.03-2.68) were associated with death. The chance of precocious death within 60 days was 10.48 times greater than the chance of early death within 30 days. CONCLUSION: Most of the deaths occurred within 2 months after the diagnosis, during the intensive phase of the treatment. The use of alcohol and gender were associated with death, revealing inequality between men and women. This study advanced knowledge regarding the vulnerability associated with mortality. These findings must be addressed to fill a gap in the care cascades for active TB and ensure equity in health.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (-0.27% per month, 95%CI -0.13 to -0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season - called amazon winter season -, and decrease (-9.21% per month, CI95% -1.37 to -16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil.

The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy (Hansen's Disease), in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. We studied trends over eleven years, both in the detection of the disease and in disabilities, analyzing disparities and/or differences regarding gender and age. This is an ecological time series study conducted in Cuiabá, capital of the state of Mato Grosso. The population consisted of patients diagnosed with leprosy between the years 2008 and 2018. The time series of leprosy cases was used, stratifying it according to gender (male and female), disability grade (G0D, G1D, G2D, and not evaluated) and age. The calendar adjustment technique was applied. For modeling the trends, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) was used. We identified 9.739 diagnosed cases, in which 58.37% were male and 87.55% aged between 15 and 59 years. Regarding detection according to gender, there was a decrease among women and an increase in men. The study shows an increasing trend in disabilities in both genders, which may be related to the delay in diagnosis. There was also an increasing number of cases that were not assessed for disability at the time of diagnosis, which denotes the quality of the services.

Spatial distribution and temporal trend of National Health System and Supplemental Health Sector human resources, Brazil, 2005-2016. / A distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal de recursos humanos para o Sistema Único de Saúde e para a Saúde Suplementar, Brasil, 2005 a 2016.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trend of human resources for the Brazilian National Health System (SUS) and the Supplemental Health sector. METHODS: an ecological study was conducted in the country's 27 Federative Units (FUs); SUS Information Technology Department (DATASUS) data were used relating to the doctor, dental surgeon, nurse and nursing technician personnel categories for the period 2005-2016; Prais-Winsten regression was used to assess the time trend. RESULTS: there was an rising trend of Supplemental Health Sector human resources in all personnel categories, with an mean annual increase of 0.054 (95%CI: 0.031;0.076); with regard to SUS, there was an increase in dental surgeons and nursing technicians, with annual increases of 0.008 (95%CI: 0.003;0.011), and 0.066 (95%CI 0.022; 0.087), respectively, while in most FU, nurses showed a stationary trend and doctors showed a stationary or falling trend. CONCLUSION: inequalities were found in human resource distribution, reflecting the health system crisis.

Social determinants of deaths from pneumonia and tuberculosis in children in Brazil: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the risk areas of deaths due to unspecified pneumonia and tuberculosis (TB) in children, and to identify if there is a relationship between these events with higher TB incidence and social determinants. METHODS: Ecological study carried out in Brazil. All cases of TB or unspecified pneumonia deaths in children under 5 years of age reported between 2006 and 2016 were included and collected through Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (Brazil's electronic database). The Spatial Scan Statistics was used to identify areas at higher risk of dying from this event. The spatial association was verified through the Getis-Ord techniques. The Bivariate Moran Global Index was used to verify the spatial autocorrelation between the two events. To identify the association of TB and pneumonia deaths with endemic areas of pulmonary TB and social determinants, four explanatory statistical models were identified. RESULTS: A total of 21 391 cases of pneumonia and 238 cases of TB were identified. Spatial scanning analysis enabled the detection of four clusters of risk for TB (relative risk, RR, between 3.30 and 18.18) and 22 clusters for pneumonia (RR between 1.38 and 5.24). The spatial association of the events was confirmed (z-score 3.74 and 64.34) and spatial autocorrelation between events (Moran Index:0.031 (p=0.001)). The zero-inflated negative binomial distribution was chosen, and an association for both events was identified with the TB incidence rate (OR 5.3, 95% CI 2.85 to 9.84; OR 6.63, 95% CI 5.62 to 7.81), with the Gini Index (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.82; OR 4.22, 95% CI 3.63 to4.92). Primary care coverage showed an inverse association for both events (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.17; OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.21) for pneumonia). Finally, a family that benefited from the Bolsa Família Programme had an inverse association for deaths from pneumonia (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.25). CONCLUSIONS: The results do not just contribute to reduce mortality in children, but mainly contribute to prevent premature deaths through identification of critical areas in Brazil, which is crucial to qualify health surveillance services.

Predictive model of unfavorable outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the temporal trend, identify the factors related and elaborate a predictive model for unfavorable treatment outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study with all cases diagnosed with MDR-TB between the years 2006 and 2015 in the state of São Paulo. The data were collected from the state system of TB cases notifications (TB-WEB). The temporal trend analyzes of treatment outcomes was performed through the Prais-Winsten analysis. In order to verify the factors related to the unfavorable outcomes, abandonment, death with basic cause TB and treatment failure, the binary logistic regression was used. Pictorial representations of the factors related to treatment outcome and their prognostic capacity through the nomogram were elaborated. RESULTS: Both abandonment and death have a constant temporal tendency, whereas the failure showed it as decreasing. Regarding the risk factors for such outcomes, using illicit drugs doubled the odds for abandonment and death. Besides that, being diagnosed in emergency units or during hospitalizations was a risk factor for death. On the contrary, having previous multidrug-resistant treatments reduced the odds for the analyzed outcomes by 33%. The nomogram presented a predictive model with 65% accuracy for dropouts, 70% for deaths and 80% for failure. CONCLUSIONS: The modification of the current model of care is an essential factor for the prevention of unfavorable outcomes. Through predictive models, as presented in this study, it is possible to develop patient-centered actions, considering their risk factors and increasing the chances for cure.

What are the factors that contribute to the development of sexual dysfunction in breastfeeding women? A systematic scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Female sexual dysfunction is a public health problem. Evidence suggests that the population of nursing women is more vulnerable to the phenomenon due to breast feeding. Thus, this protocol was developed to explore the factors that contribute to the development of sexual dysfunction in breastfeeding women. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The systematic scoping review will be conducted in six stages, according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocols. The databases used will be: PubMed, Excerpta Medica Database, Cumulative Index for Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycINFO, Science Direct, Web of Science and Google Scholar. The searches were made until 1 June 2018, and no retrospective time limit was used. For the organisation of the literature retrieved from the databases, the EndNote Basic manager will be used. The Cochrane model will be used for the data extraction. The analysis of the quantitative data will be carried out through descriptive statistics and the qualitative data will be submitted to thematic analysis. The methodological quality of the empirical studies will be evaluated using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: As it will be a review study, without human involvement, there will be no need for ethical approval. The results will be disseminated in a scientific journal, as well as in various media, such as: conferences, seminars, congresses or symposia.

Social determinants, their relationship with leprosy risk and temporal trends in a tri-border region in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is the only country in Latin America that has adopted a national health system. This causes differences in access to health among Latin American countries and induces noticeable migration to Brazilian regions to seek healthcare. This phenomenon has led to difficulties in the control and elimination of diseases related to poverty, such as leprosy. The aim of this study was to evaluate social determinants and their relationship with the risk of leprosy, as well as to examine the temporal trend of its occurrence in a Brazilian municipality located on the tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. METHODS: This ecological study investigated newly-diagnosed cases of leprosy between 2003 and 2015. Exploratory analysis of the data was performed through descriptive statistics. For spatial analysis, geocoding of the data was performed using spatial scan statistic techniques to obtain the Relative Risk (RR) for each census tract, with their respective 95% confidence intervals calculated. The Bivariate Moran I test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to analyze the spatial relationships of social determinants and leprosy risk. The temporal trend of the annual coefficient of new cases was obtained through the Prais-Winsten regression. A standard error of 5% was considered statistically significant (p < 0.05). RESULTS: Of the 840 new cases identified in the study, there was a predominance of females (n = 427, 50.8%), of white race/color (n = 685, 81.6%), age range 15 to 59 years (n = 624, 74.3%), and incomplete elementary education (n = 504, 60.0%). The results obtained from multivariate analysis revealed that the proportion of households with monthly nominal household income per capita greater than 1 minimum wage (ß = 0.025, p = 0.036) and people of brown race (ß = -0.101, p = 0.024) were statistically-significantly associated with risk of illness due to leprosy. These results also confirmed that social determinants and risk of leprosy were significantly spatially non-stationary. Regarding the temporal trend, a decrease of 4% (95% CI [-0.053, -0.033], p = 0.000) per year was observed in the rate of detection of new cases of leprosy. CONCLUSION: The social determinants income and race/color were associated with the risk of leprosy. The study's highlighting of these social determinants can contribute to the development of public policies directed toward the elimination of leprosy in the border region.