A global reptile assessment highlights shared conservation needs of tetrapods.

Comprehensive assessments of species' extinction risks have documented the extinction crisis1 and underpinned strategies for reducing those risks2. Global assessments reveal that, among tetrapods, 40.7% of amphibians, 25.4% of mammals and 13.6% of birds are threatened with extinction3. Because global assessments have been lacking, reptiles have been omitted from conservation-prioritization analyses that encompass other tetrapods4-7. Reptiles are unusually diverse in arid regions, suggesting that they may have different conservation needs6. Here we provide a comprehensive extinction-risk assessment of reptiles and show that at least 1,829 out of 10,196 species (21.1%) are threatened-confirming a previous extrapolation8 and representing 15.6 billion years of phylogenetic diversity. Reptiles are threatened by the same major factors that threaten other tetrapods-agriculture, logging, urban development and invasive species-although the threat posed by climate change remains uncertain. Reptiles inhabiting forests, where these threats are strongest, are more threatened than those in arid habitats, contrary to our prediction. Birds, mammals and amphibians are unexpectedly good surrogates for the conservation of reptiles, although threatened reptiles with the smallest ranges tend to be isolated from other threatened tetrapods. Although some reptiles-including most species of crocodiles and turtles-require urgent, targeted action to prevent extinctions, efforts to protect other tetrapods, such as habitat preservation and control of trade and invasive species, will probably also benefit many reptiles.

The EDGE2 protocol: Advancing the prioritisation of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered species for practical conservation action.

The conservation of evolutionary history has been linked to increased benefits for humanity and can be captured by phylogenetic diversity (PD). The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to prioritise threatened species for practical conservation that embody large amounts of evolutionary history. While there have been important research advances since 2007, they have not been adopted in practice because of a lack of consensus in the conservation community. Here, building from an interdisciplinary workshop to update the existing EDGE approach, we present an "EDGE2" protocol that draws on a decade of research and innovation to develop an improved, consistent methodology for prioritising species conservation efforts. Key advances include methods for dealing with uncertainty and accounting for the extinction risk of closely related species. We describe EDGE2 in terms of distinct components to facilitate future revisions to its constituent parts without needing to reconsider the whole. We illustrate EDGE2 by applying it to the world's mammals. As we approach a crossroads for global biodiversity policy, this Consensus View shows how collaboration between academic and applied conservation biologists can guide effective and practical priority-setting to conserve biodiversity.

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny.

The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning-based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles-the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

Species life-history strategies affect population responses to temperature and land-cover changes.

Human-induced environmental changes have a direct impact on species populations, with some species experiencing declines while others display population growth. Understanding why and how species populations respond differently to environmental changes is fundamental to mitigate and predict future biodiversity changes. Theoretically, species life-history strategies are key determinants shaping the response of populations to environmental impacts. Despite this, the association between species life histories and the response of populations to environmental changes has not been tested. In this study, we analysed the effects of recent land-cover and temperature changes on rates of population change of 1,072 populations recorded in the Living Planet Database. We selected populations with at least 5 yearly consecutive records (after imputation of missing population estimates) between 1992 and 2016, and for which we achieved high population imputation accuracy (in the cases where missing values had to be imputed). These populations were distributed across 553 different locations and included 461 terrestrial amniote vertebrate species (273 birds, 137 mammals, and 51 reptiles) with different life-history strategies. We showed that populations of fast-lived species inhabiting areas that have experienced recent expansion of cropland or bare soil present positive populations trends on average, whereas slow-lived species display negative population trends. Although these findings support previous hypotheses that fast-lived species are better adapted to recover their populations after an environmental perturbation, the sensitivity analysis revealed that model outcomes are strongly influenced by the addition or exclusion of populations with extreme rates of change. Therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution. With climate and land-use changes likely to increase in the future, establishing clear links between species characteristics and responses to these threats is fundamental for designing and conducting conservation actions. The results of this study can aid in evaluating population sensitivity, assessing the likely conservation status of species with poor data coverage, and predicting future scenarios of biodiversity change.

Quantifying reliability and data deficiency in global vertebrate population trends using the Living Planet Index.

Global biodiversity is facing a crisis, which must be solved through effective policies and on-the-ground conservation. But governments, NGOs, and scientists need reliable indicators to guide research, conservation actions, and policy decisions. Developing reliable indicators is challenging because the data underlying those tools is incomplete and biased. For example, the Living Planet Index tracks the changing status of global vertebrate biodiversity, but taxonomic, geographic and temporal gaps and biases are present in the aggregated data used to calculate trends. However, without a basis for real-world comparison, there is no way to directly assess an indicator's accuracy or reliability. Instead, a modelling approach can be used. We developed a model of trend reliability, using simulated datasets as stand-ins for the "real world", degraded samples as stand-ins for indicator datasets (e.g., the Living Planet Database), and a distance measure to quantify reliability by comparing partially sampled to fully sampled trends. The model revealed that the proportion of species represented in the database is not always indicative of trend reliability. Important factors are the number and length of time series, as well as their mean growth rates and variance in their growth rates, both within and between time series. We found that many trends in the Living Planet Index need more data to be considered reliable, particularly trends across the global south. In general, bird trends are the most reliable, while reptile and amphibian trends are most in need of additional data. We simulated three different solutions for reducing data deficiency, and found that collating existing data (where available) is the most efficient way to improve trend reliability, whereas revisiting previously studied populations is a quick and efficient way to improve trend reliability until new long-term studies can be completed and made available.

Prioritizing the reassessment of data-deficient species on the IUCN Red List.

Despite being central to the implementation of conservation policies, the usefulness of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is hampered by the 14% of species classified as data-deficient (DD) because information to evaluate these species' extinction risk was lacking when they were last assessed or because assessors did not appropriately account for uncertainty. Robust methods are needed to identify which DD species are more likely to be reclassified in one of the data-sufficient IUCN Red List categories. We devised a reproducible method to help red-list assessors prioritize reassessment of DD species and tested it with 6887 DD species of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fishes, and Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies). For each DD species in these groups, we calculated its probability of being classified in a data-sufficient category if reassessed today from covariates measuring available knowledge (e.g., number of occurrence records or published articles available), knowledge proxies (e.g., remoteness of the range), and species characteristics (e.g., nocturnality); calculated change in such probability since last assessment from the increase in available knowledge (e.g., new occurrence records); and determined whether the species might qualify as threatened based on recent rate of habitat loss determined from global land-cover maps. We identified 1907 species with a probability of being reassessed in a data-sufficient category of >0.5; 624 species for which this probability increased by >0.25 since last assessment; and 77 species that could be reassessed as near threatened or threatened based on habitat loss. Combining these 3 elements, our results provided a list of species likely to be data-sufficient such that the comprehensiveness and representativeness of the IUCN Red List can be improved.

Priorización de la reevaluación de las especies con datos deficientes en la Lista Roja de la UICN Resumen No obstante que es fundamental para la implementación de políticas de conservación, la utilidad de la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) está limitada por el 14% de especies clasificadas con datos deficientes (DD) debido a que la información para evaluar el riesgo de extinción de estas especies no existía cuando fueron evaluadas la última vez o porque los evaluadores no consideraron la incertidumbre apropiadamente. Se requieren métodos robustos para identificar las especies DD con mayor probabilidad de ser reclasificadas en alguna de las categorías en la Lista Roja UICN con datos suficientes. Diseñamos un método reproducible para ayudar a que los evaluadores de la lista roja prioricen la reevaluación de especies DD y lo probamos con 6,887 especies DD de mamíferos, reptiles, anfibios, peces y Odonata (libélulas y caballitos del diablo). Para cada una de las especies DD en estos grupos, calculamos la probabilidad de ser clasificadas en una categoría con datos suficientes si fuera reevaluada hoy a partir de covariables que miden el conocimiento disponible (e.g., número de registros de ocurrencia o artículos publicados disponibles), sustitutos de conocimiento (e.g., extensión del rango de distribución) y características de la especie ((e.g., nocturnidad); calculamos el cambio en tal probabilidad desde la última reevaluación a partir del incremento en el conocimiento disponible (e.g., registros de ocurrencia nuevos); y determinamos si las especies podrían calificar como amenazadas con base en pérdidas de hábitat recientes a partir de mapas globales de cobertura de suelo recientes. Identificamos 1,907 especies con una probabilidad >0.5 de ser reclasificados en una categoría con datos suficientes; 624 especies cuya probabilidad aumentó en >0.25 desde la última evaluación, y 77 especies que podrían ser reclasificadas como casi en peligro con base en la pérdida de hábitat. Combinando estos 3 elementos, nuestros resultados proporcionaron una lista de especies probablemente con datos suficientes de tal modo que la exhaustividad y la representatividad de la Lista Roja de la UICN pueden ser mejoradas.

Assessing the extinction risk of insular, understudied marine species.

Hydrothermal vents are rare deep-sea oases that house faunal assemblages with a similar density of life as coral reefs. Only approximately 600 of these hotspots are known worldwide, most only one-third of a football field in size. With advancing development of the deep-sea mining industry, there is an urgent need to protect these unique, insular ecosystems and their specialist endemic faunas. We applied the IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature) Red List criteria to assess the extinction risk of vent-endemic molluscs with varying exposure to potential deep-sea mining. We assessed 31 species from three key areas under different regulatory frameworks in the Indian, West Pacific, and Southern Oceans. Three vent mollusc species were also examined as case studies of different threat contexts (protected or not from potential mining) to explore the interaction of local regulatory frameworks and IUCN Red List category assignment. We found that these assessments were robust even when there was some uncertainty in the total range of individual species, allowing assessment of species that have only recently been named and described. For vent-endemic species, regulatory changes to area-based management can have a greater impact on IUCN Red List assessment outcomes than incorporating additional data about species distributions. Our approach revealed the most useful IUCN Red List criteria for vent-endemic species: criteria B and D2. This approach, combining regulatory framework and distribution, has the potential to rapidly gauge assessment outcomes for species in insular systems worldwide.

Evaluación del Riesgo de Extinción de Especies Marinas Insulares Poco Estudiadas Resumen Los respiraderos hidrotermales son oasis poco comunes en las profundidades del mar en donde se encuentran conjuntos de fauna con una densidad similar a la de los arrecifes de coral. A nivel mundial, sólo se conocen aproximadamente 600 de estos puntos calientes, la mayoría solamente del tamaño de un tercio de una cancha de fútbol. Conforme avanza el desarrollo de la industria minera en mares profundos, también hay una urgente necesidad por proteger estos ecosistemas únicos e insulares y a su fauna endémica especialista. Aplicamos el criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICN (Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza) para evaluar el riesgo de extinción que tienen los moluscos endémicos de los respiraderos ante una exposición variable a la potencial minería de mar profundo. Evaluamos 31 especies de tres áreas importantes bajo diferentes marcos regulatorios en los océanos Índico, Pacífico Occidental y del Sur. Analizamos tres especies de moluscos de los respiraderos como estudios de caso para diferentes contextos de amenazas (protegidas o no de la minería potencial) para explorar la interacción de los marcos regulatorios locales y la clasificación categórica dentro de la Lista Roja de la UICN. Descubrimos que estos análisis eran sólidos incluso cuando existía algo de incertidumbre en cuanto a la extensión total de la especie individual, lo que permite la valoración de especies que han sido descritas y nombradas recientemente. Para las especies endémicas de las chimeneas, los cambios regulatorios a un manejo basado en el área pueden tener un mayor impacto sobre los resultados de evaluación de la Lista Roja de la UICN que la incorporación de datos adicionales sobre la distribución de las especies. Nuestra estrategia reveló los criterios más útiles de la Lista Roja de la UICN para las especies endémicas de las chimeneas: los criterios B y D2. Esta estrategia, que combina un marco regulatorio con la distribución, tiene el potencial para medir rápidamente los resultados de las evaluaciones para las especies que se encuentran en sistemas insulares en todo el mundo.

Prevalence of sustainable and unsustainable use of wild species inferred from the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.

Unsustainable exploitation of wild species represents a serious threat to biodiversity and to the livelihoods of local communities and Indigenous peoples. However, managed, sustainable use has the potential to forestall extinctions, aid recovery, and meet human needs. We analyzed species-level data for 30,923 species from 13 taxonomic groups on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species to investigate patterns of intentional biological resource use. Forty percent of species (10,098 of 25,009 species from 10 data-sufficient taxonomic groups) were used. The main purposes of use were pets, display animals, horticulture, and human consumption. Intentional use is currently contributing to elevated extinction risk for 28-29% of threatened or near threatened (NT) species (2752-2848 of 9753 species). Intentional use also affected 16% of all species used (1597-1631 of 10,098). However, 72% of used species (7291 of 10,098) were least concern, of which nearly half (3469) also had stable or improving population trends. The remainder were not documented as threatened by biological resource use, including at least 172 threatened or NT species with stable or improving populations. About one-third of species that had use documented as a threat had no targeted species management actions to directly address this threat. To improve use-related red-list data, we suggest small amendments to the relevant classification schemes and required supporting documentation. Our findings on the prevalence of sustainable and unsustainable use, and variation across taxa, can inform international policy making, including the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species.

Predominio del Uso Sustentable y No Sustentable de Especies Silvestres Inferido a partir de la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la UICN Resumen La explotación insostenible de especies silvestres representa una verdadera amenaza para la biodiversidad y el sustento de las comunidades locales y los pueblos indígenas. Sin embargo, el uso sostenible gestionado tiene el potencial para prevenir extinciones, auxiliar en la recuperación y satisfacer las necesidades humanas. Analizamos los datos a nivel de especie correspondientes a 30,923 especies de 13 grupos taxonómicos localizados en la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) para investigar los patrones del uso intencional de recursos biológicos. Usamos el 40% de las especies analizadas (10,098 de 25,009 especies pertenecientes a diez grupos taxonómicos con suficiente información). Los principales motivos para el uso de vida silvestre fueron como mascotas, animales de exhibición, horticultura y consumo humano. El uso intencional está actualmente contribuyendo a un riesgo elevado de extinción para 28 - 29% de las especies amenazadas o casi amenazadas (NT) (2,752 - 2,848 de 9,753 especies). El uso intencional también afectó al 16% de todas las especies utilizadas (1,597 - 1,631 de 10,098). Sin embargo, el 72% de las especies utilizadas (7,291 de 10, 098) pertenecen a la categoría de preocupación menor, de las cuales casi la mitad (3,469) también contaban con tendencias poblacionales estables o de mejoría. Las especies restantes no estaban documentadas como amenazadas por el uso de recursos biológicos, incluyendo al menos 172 especies amenazadas o NT con poblaciones estables o en aumento. Casi un tercio de las especies que tienen documentado el uso como una amenaza no cuentan con acciones de manejo para abordar directamente esta amenaza. Para mejorar la información de la lista roja relacionada con el uso, sugerimos pequeñas modificaciones a los esquemas relevantes de clasificación y la documentación de apoyo requerida. Nuestros descubrimientos sobre el predominio del uso sustentable y no sustentable, y la variación entre taxones, puede orientar la formulación de políticas internacionales, incluyendo a la Plataforma Intergubernamental de Políticas Científicas sobre Biodiversidad y Servicios Ecosistémicos, el Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica y la Convención sobre el Comercio Internacional de Especies Amenazadas.

Identifying the possibilities and pitfalls of conducting IUCN Red List assessments from remotely sensed habitat information based on insights from poorly known Cuban mammals.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (RLS) is the key global tool for objective, repeatable assessment of species' extinction risk status, and plays an essential role in tracking biodiversity loss and guiding conservation action. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) data sets on global ecosystem distributions and functioning show exciting potential for informing range-based RLS assessment, but their incorporation has been restricted by low temporal resolution and coverage of data sets, lack of incorporation of degradation-driven habitat loss, and noninclusion of assumptions related to identification of changing habitat distributions for taxa with varying habitat dependency and ecologies. For poorly known mangrove-associated Cuban hutias (Mesocapromys spp.), we tested the impact of possible assumptions regarding these issues on range-based RLS assessment outcomes. Specifically, we used annual (1985-2018) Landsat data and land-cover classification and habitat degradation analyses across different internal time series slices to simulate range-based RLS assessments for our case study taxa to explore potential assessment uncertainty arising from temporal SRS data set coverage, incorporating proxies of (change in) habitat quality, and assumptions on spatial scaling of habitat extent for RLS parameter generation. We found extensive variation in simulated species-specific range-based RLS assessments, and this variation was mostly associated with the time series over which parameters were estimated. However, results of some species-specific assessments differed by up to 3 categories (near threatened to critically endangered) within the same time series, due to the effects of incorporating habitat quality and the spatial scaling used in RLS parameter estimation. Our results showed that a one-size-fits-all approach to incorporating SRS information in RLS assessment is inappropriate, and we urge caution in conducting range-based assessments with SRS for species for which habitat dependence on specific ecosystem types is incompletely understood. We propose novel revisions to parameter spatial scaling guidelines to improve integration of existing time series data on ecosystem change into the RLS assessment process.

La Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas (LREA) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza es la herramienta mundial más importante para la evaluación objetiva y repetible del estado de riesgo de extinción de una especie y juega un papel esencial en el seguimiento de la pérdida de la biodiversidad y en la orientación de las acciones de conservación. Los conjuntos de datos obtenidos por telemetría satelital (SRS) sobre la distribución y funcionamiento de los ecosistemas globales tienen un potencial emocionante para informar las evaluaciones de la LREA basadas en la extensión de la distribución de la especie, pero su incorporación dentro de los estudios ha estado restringida por la baja resolución temporal y la poca cobertura de los conjuntos de datos, la falta de inclusión de la pérdida de hábitat causada por la degradación y la nula inclusión de las suposiciones relacionadas con la identificación del cambio de hábitat de distribución para los taxones con una ecología y una dependencia por el hábitat variantes. Analizamos el impacto de las posibles suposiciones con respecto a los tres temas anteriores sobre los resultados de la evaluación de la LREA basada en la distribución de la jutía cubana (Mesocapromys spp.), una especie poco conocida y asociada con manglares. Específicamente, usamos los datos anuales (1985-2018) de Landsat y de la clasificación del uso de suelo y los análisis de degradación del hábitat en diferentes porciones de series temporales internas para simular las evaluaciones de la LREA basadas en la extensión para nuestro taxón de estudio y así explorar la incertidumbre potencial de la evaluación que surge de la cobertura del conjunto de datos SRS temporales. También incorporamos sustitutos de (cambio en) la calidad del hábitat y suposiciones sobre la escala espacial de la extensión del hábitat para la generación de parámetros de la LREA. Encontramos una variación extensa en las evaluaciones simuladas de la LREA específicas de especie y basadas en la extensión. Esta variación estuvo principalmente asociada con la serie temporal sobre la cual se estimaron los parámetros. Sin embargo, los resultados de algunas evaluaciones específicas de especie difirieron hasta en tres categorías (de casi amenazada hasta en peligro crítico) dentro de la misma serie temporal debido a los efectos de la incorporación de la calidad del hábitat y la escala espacial usadas en la estimación de parámetros de la LREA. Nuestros resultados muestran que un enfoque genérico para incorporar la información de SRS en la evaluación de la LREA es inapropiado e instamos precaución al realizar evaluaciones basadas en la extensión con datos SRS para especies cuya dependencia de hábitat por tipos específicos de ecosistemas no está entendida por completo. Proponemos que existan revisiones novedosas de las pautas para los parámetros de las escalas espaciales y así mejorar la integración de los datos existentes de series temporales sobre el cambio en el ecosistema dentro de los procesos de evaluación de RLS. Identificación de las Posibilidades y las Dificultades para la Realización de Evaluaciones de la Lista Roja de la UICN a partir de Información de Hábitat Detectada Remotamente con base en la Información sobre Mamíferos Cubanos Poco Conocidos.

A strategy for the next decade to address data deficiency in neglected biodiversity.

Measuring progress toward international biodiversity targets requires robust information on the conservation status of species, which the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species provides. However, data and capacity are lacking for most hyperdiverse groups, such as invertebrates, plants, and fungi, particularly in megadiverse or high-endemism regions. Conservation policies and biodiversity strategies aimed at halting biodiversity loss by 2020 need to be adapted to tackle these information shortfalls after 2020. We devised an 8-point strategy to close existing data gaps by reviving explorative field research on the distribution, abundance, and ecology of species; linking taxonomic research more closely with conservation; improving global biodiversity databases by making the submission of spatially explicit data mandatory for scientific publications; developing a global spatial database on threats to biodiversity to facilitate IUCN Red List assessments; automating preassessments by integrating distribution data and spatial threat data; building capacity in taxonomy, ecology, and biodiversity monitoring in countries with high species richness or endemism; creating species monitoring programs for lesser-known taxa; and developing sufficient funding mechanisms to reduce reliance on voluntary efforts. Implementing these strategies in the post-2020 biodiversity framework will help to overcome the lack of capacity and data regarding the conservation status of biodiversity. This will require a collaborative effort among scientists, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.

Una Estrategia para la Siguiente Década para Enfrentar la Deficiencia de Datos de la Biodiversidad Ignorada Resumen La medida del avance hacia los objetivos internacionales para la biodiversidad requiere información sólida sobre el estado de conservación de las especies, la cual proporciona la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN). Sin embargo, los grupos más hiperdiversos, como los invertebrados, las plantas y los hongos, carecen de datos y capacidad, particularmente en regiones megadiversas o de endemismo alto. Las políticas de conservación y las estrategias de biodiversidad dirigidas hacia el cese de la pérdida de biodiversidad para el 2020 necesitan ser adaptadas para solucionar estas insuficiencias de información para después del año 2020. Diseñamos una estrategia de ocho puntos para cerrar las brechas existentes en los datos mediante la reactivación de la investigación exploratoria en el campo sobre la distribución, abundancia y ecología de las especies; la vinculación más cercana entre la investigación taxonómica y la conservación; la mejora a las bases de datos mundiales sobre biodiversidad mediante la presentación obligatoria de datos espacialmente explícitos para las publicaciones científicas; el desarrollo de una base mundial de datos espaciales sobre las amenazas para la biodiversidad para facilitar las valoraciones de la Lista Roja de la UICN; la automatización de las preevaluaciones mediante la integración de datos de distribución y datos de amenazas espaciales; el desarrollo de la capacidad en la taxonomía, la ecología y el monitoreo de la biodiversidad en países con una gran riqueza de especies o endemismos; la creación de programas de monitoreo de especies para los taxones menos conocidos; el desarrollo de suficientes mecanismos de financiamiento para reducir la dependencia de los esfuerzos voluntarios. La implementación de estas estrategias en el marco de trabajo para la biodiversidad posterior al 2020 ayudará a superar la falta de capacidad y datos con respecto al estado de conservación de la biodiversidad. Lo anterior requerirá de un esfuerzo colaborativo entre científicos, formuladores de políticas y practicantes de la conservación.

The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation.

Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats).

Clarifying misconceptions of extinction risk assessment with the IUCN Red List.

The identification of species at risk of extinction is a central goal of conservation. As the use of data compiled for IUCN Red List assessments expands, a number of misconceptions regarding the purpose, application and use of the IUCN Red List categories and criteria have arisen. We outline five such classes of misconception; the most consequential drive proposals for adapted versions of the criteria, rendering assessments among species incomparable. A key challenge for the future will be to recognize the point where understanding has developed so markedly that it is time for the next generation of the Red List criteria. We do not believe we are there yet but, recognizing the need for scrutiny and continued development of Red Listing, conclude by suggesting areas where additional research could be valuable in improving the understanding of extinction risk among species.

Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded.

Toward equality of biodiversity knowledge through technology transfer.

To help stem the continuing decline of biodiversity, effective transfer of technology from resource-rich to biodiversity-rich countries is required. Biodiversity technology as defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is a complex term, encompassing a wide variety of activities and interest groups. As yet, there is no robust framework by which to monitor the extent to which technology transfer might benefit biodiversity. We devised a definition of biodiversity technology and a framework for the monitoring of technology transfer between CBD signatories. Biodiversity technology within the scope of the CBD encompasses hard and soft technologies that are relevant to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, or make use of genetic resources, and that relate to all aspects of the CBD, with a particular focus on technology transfer from resource-rich to biodiversity-rich countries. Our proposed framework introduces technology transfer as a response indicator: technology transfer is increased to stem pressures on biodiversity. We suggest an initial approach of tracking technology flow between countries; charting this flow is likely to be a one-to-many relationship (i.e., the flow of a specific technology from one country to multiple countries). Future developments should then focus on integrating biodiversity technology transfer into the current pressure-state-response indicator framework favored by the CBD (i.e., measuring the influence of technology transfer on changes in state and pressure variables). Structured national reporting is important to obtaining metrics relevant to technology and knowledge transfer. Interim measures, that can be used to assess biodiversity technology or knowledge status while more in-depth indicators are being developed, include the number of species inventories, threatened species lists, or national red lists; databases on publications and project funding may provide measures of international cooperation. Such a pragmatic approach, followed by rigorous testing of specific technology transfer metrics submitted by CBD signatories in a standardized manner may in turn improve the focus of future targets on technology transfer for biodiversity conservation.

Global patterns of freshwater species diversity, threat and endemism.

AIM: Global-scale studies are required to identify broad-scale patterns in the distributions of species, to evaluate the processes that determine diversity and to determine how similar or different these patterns and processes are among different groups of freshwater species. Broad-scale patterns of spatial variation in species distribution are central to many fundamental questions in macroecology and conservation biology. We aimed to evaluate how congruent three commonly used metrics of diversity were among taxa for six groups of freshwater species. LOCATION: Global. METHODS: We compiled geographical range data on 7083 freshwater species of mammals, amphibians, reptiles, fishes, crabs and crayfish to evaluate how species richness, richness of threatened species and endemism are distributed across freshwater ecosystems. We evaluated how congruent these measures of diversity were among taxa at a global level for a grid cell size of just under 1°. RESULTS: We showed that although the risk of extinction faced by freshwater decapods is quite similar to that of freshwater vertebrates, there is a distinct lack of spatial congruence in geographical range between different taxonomic groups at this spatial scale, and a lack of congruence among three commonly used metrics of biodiversity. The risk of extinction for freshwater species was consistently higher than for their terrestrial counterparts. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that broad-scale patterns of species richness, threatened-species richness and endemism lack congruence among the six freshwater taxonomic groups examined. Invertebrate species are seldom taken into account in conservation planning. Our study suggests that both the metric of biodiversity and the identity of the taxa on which conservation decisions are based require careful consideration. As geographical range information becomes available for further sets of species, further testing will be warranted into the extent to which geographical variation in the richness of these six freshwater groups reflects broader patterns of biodiversity in fresh water.

Global conservation status of the jawed vertebrate Tree of Life.

Human-driven extinction threatens entire lineages across the Tree of Life. Here we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history, using three policy-relevant approaches. First, we calculate an index of threat to overall evolutionary history, showing that we expect to lose 86-150 billion years (11-19%) of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history over the next 50-500 years. Second, we rank jawed vertebrate species by their EDGE scores to identify the highest priorities for species-focused conservation of evolutionary history, finding that chondrichthyans, ray-finned fish and testudines rank highest of all jawed vertebrates. Third, we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate families. We found that species within monotypic families are more likely to be threatened and more likely to be in decline than other species. We provide a baseline for the status of families at risk of extinction to catalyse conservation action. This work continues a trend of highlighting neglected groups-such as testudines, crocodylians, amphibians and chondrichthyans-as conservation priorities from a phylogenetic perspective.

A user-friendly guide to using distance measures to compare time series in ecology.

Time series are a critical component of ecological analysis, used to track changes in biotic and abiotic variables. Information can be extracted from the properties of time series for tasks such as classification (e.g., assigning species to individual bird calls); clustering (e.g., clustering similar responses in population dynamics to abrupt changes in the environment or management interventions); prediction (e.g., accuracy of model predictions to original time series data); and anomaly detection (e.g., detecting possible catastrophic events from population time series). These common tasks in ecological research all rely on the notion of (dis-) similarity, which can be determined using distance measures. A plethora of distance measures have been described, predominantly in the computer and information sciences, but many have not been introduced to ecologists. Furthermore, little is known about how to select appropriate distance measures for time-series-related tasks. Therefore, many potential applications remain unexplored. Here, we describe 16 properties of distance measures that are likely to be of importance to a variety of ecological questions involving time series. We then test 42 distance measures for each property and use the results to develop an objective method to select appropriate distance measures for any task and ecological dataset. We demonstrate our selection method by applying it to a set of real-world data on breeding bird populations in the UK and discuss other potential applications for distance measures, along with associated technical issues common in ecology. Our real-world population trends exhibit a common challenge for time series comparisons: a high level of stochasticity. We demonstrate two different ways of overcoming this challenge, first by selecting distance measures with properties that make them well suited to comparing noisy time series and second by applying a smoothing algorithm before selecting appropriate distance measures. In both cases, the distance measures chosen through our selection method are not only fit-for-purpose but are consistent in their rankings of the population trends. The results of our study should lead to an improved understanding of, and greater scope for, the use of distance measures for comparing ecological time series and help us answer new ecological questions.

Past, present, and future of the Living Planet Index.

As we enter the next phase of international policy commitments to halt biodiversity loss (e.g., Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework), biodiversity indicators will play an important role in forming the robust basis upon which targeted, and time sensitive conservation actions are developed. Population trend indicators are one of the most powerful tools in biodiversity monitoring due to their responsiveness to changes over short timescales and their ability to aggregate species trends from global down to sub-national or even local scale. We consider how the project behind one of the foremost population level indicators - the Living Planet Index - has evolved over the last 25 years, its value to the field of biodiversity monitoring, and how its components have portrayed a compelling account of the changing status of global biodiversity through its application at policy, research and practice levels. We explore ways the project can develop to enhance our understanding of the state of biodiversity and share lessons learned to inform indicator development and mobilise action.

Bridging the research-implementation gap in IUCN Red List assessments.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is central in biodiversity conservation, but insufficient resources hamper its long-term growth, updating, and consistency. Models or automated calculations can alleviate those challenges by providing standardised estimates required for assessments, or prioritising species for (re-)assessments. However, while numerous scientific papers have proposed such methods, few have been integrated into assessment practice, highlighting a critical research-implementation gap. We believe this gap can be bridged by fostering communication and collaboration between academic researchers and Red List practitioners, and by developing and maintaining user-friendly platforms to automate application of the methods. We propose that developing methods better encompassing Red List criteria, systems, and drivers is the next priority to support the Red List.