Drivers of seedling establishment success in dryland restoration efforts.

Restoration of degraded drylands is urgently needed to mitigate climate change, reverse desertification and secure livelihoods for the two billion people who live in these areas. Bold global targets have been set for dryland restoration to restore millions of hectares of degraded land. These targets have been questioned as overly ambitious, but without a global evaluation of successes and failures it is impossible to gauge feasibility. Here we examine restoration seeding outcomes across 174 sites on six continents, encompassing 594,065 observations of 671 plant species. Our findings suggest reasons for optimism. Seeding had a positive impact on species presence: in almost a third of all treatments, 100% of species seeded were growing at first monitoring. However, dryland restoration is risky: 17% of projects failed, with no establishment of any seeded species, and consistent declines were found in seeded species as projects matured. Across projects, higher seeding rates and larger seed sizes resulted in a greater probability of recruitment, with further influences on species success including site aridity, taxonomic identity and species life form. Our findings suggest that investigations examining these predictive factors will yield more effective and informed restoration decision-making.

Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate.

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, small population sizes, long gaps between surveys, and climate change may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size and elevation were negatively associated with extinction, while extinction probability increased with time between observations. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 39%-52% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high vulnerability to climate or land cover change.

Seed dormancy and germination vary within and among species of milkweeds.

Pollinators in general and monarch butterflies in particular are in decline due to habitat loss. Efforts to restore habitats for insects that rely on specific plant groups as larvae or adults depend on the ability of practitioners to grow and produce these plants. Monarch larvae feed exclusively on milkweed species, primarily in the genus Asclepias, making propagation and restoration of these plants crucial for habitat restoration. Seed germination protocols for milkweeds are not well established, in part due to the large number of milkweed species and conflicting reports of seed dormancy in the genus. We tested for seed dormancy and the optimum period of cold stratification in 15 populations of A. speciosa and 1-2 populations of five additional species, including A. asperula, A. fascicularis, A. subulata, A. subverticillata and A. syriaca. We exposed seeds to cold (5 °C) moist conditions for 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 weeks and then moved them to 15 °C/25 °C alternating temperatures. In A. speciosa, dormancy was detected in eight populations, and this dormancy was broken by 2-4 weeks of cold stratification. The remaining seven populations showed no dormancy. Seed dormancy was also detected in two populations of A. fascicularis (broken by 4-6 weeks of cold stratification) and a single population of A. syriaca (broken by 2 weeks of cold stratification). No dormancy was detected in A. asperula, A. subulata or A. subverticillata. Seed dormancy appears to be widespread in the genus (confirmed in 15 species) but can vary between populations even within the same species. Variation in seed dormancy and cold stratification requirements within and among Asclepias species suggests local adaptation and maternal environments may drive seedling ecology, and that growers should watch for low germination and use cold stratification as needed to maximize seed germination and retain genetic variability in restored populations.