Network inference from short, noisy, low time-resolution, partial measurements: Application to C. elegans neuronal calcium dynamics.

Network link inference from measured time series data of the behavior of dynamically interacting network nodes is an important problem with wide-ranging applications, e.g., estimating synaptic connectivity among neurons from measurements of their calcium fluorescence. Network inference methods typically begin by using the measured time series to assign to any given ordered pair of nodes a numerical score reflecting the likelihood of a directed link between those two nodes. In typical cases, the measured time series data may be subject to limitations, including limited duration, low sampling rate, observational noise, and partial nodal state measurement. However, it is unknown how the performance of link inference techniques on such datasets depends on these experimental limitations of data acquisition. Here, we utilize both synthetic data generated from coupled chaotic systems as well as experimental data obtained from Caenorhabditis elegans neural activity to systematically assess the influence of data limitations on the character of scores reflecting the likelihood of a directed link between a given node pair. We do this for three network inference techniques: Granger causality, transfer entropy, and, a machine learning-based method. Furthermore, we assess the ability of appropriate surrogate data to determine statistical confidence levels associated with the results of link-inference techniques.

Understanding ethnic inequalities in the design and implementation of digital health interventions for cardiometabolic disease: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The use of digital health interventions (DHIs), such as apps and wearable devices, for prevention and management of cardiometabolic disease, has been accelerated by the impact of COVID-19 on health-care services. Digital inequalities disproportionately affect those most at risk of wider health inequalities (e.g., older age, minority ethnicity, and lower household income) and might intersect with populations with higher cardiometabolic disease risk such as South Asians in the UK. We wanted to understand how those involved in DHI implementation perceive and address these inequalities, to help develop recommendations to reduce the risk of DHI implementation exacerbating existing health inequalities. METHODS: For this qualitative study we used a purposive sampling strategy, whereby focus groups and semi-structured interviews were done online between April 7 and Dec 8, 2022, with stakeholders, including health-care professionals (n=15); technology developers and digital experts (n=10); those in strategy, evaluation, or policy roles (n=15); and charities (n=4). Discussions covered barriers and facilitators to inclusive design and implementation of DHIs, with focus dependent on expertise. Findings from a qualitative study with South Asian patients have been reported separately. Audio recordings were transcribed and coded using reflexive thematic analysis. Participants provided written consent and the study received NHS Health Research Authority approval from London - Brent Research Ethics Committee (IRAS 261047). FINDINGS: Participants had a good understanding of barriers to DHI use for cardiometabolic disease faced by South Asians, highlighting the need to design for language, culture, and diet. Many emphasised the link between digital exclusion and socioeconomic deprivation, across all ethnic groups in the UK. The potential for DHIs in improving patient outcomes was recognised; however, equity concerns included unequal patient access, lack of data and resources to target support, and need for quality evidence to recommend and commission digital tools. A range of solutions for improving equity were suggested such as resourcing support for digital upskilling, community engagement, and the role of regulation in embedding improved design and evaluation of DHIs available through health-care services. INTERPRETATION: This study reflects the experiences of professionals interested in (digital) health inequalities. However, challenges to equitable digital health implementation and use are well described. Our findings present multi-sectoral responsibilities and opportunities for action. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).

Barriers to healthcare access and experiences of stigma: Findings from a coproduced Long Covid case-finding study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Long Covid is often stigmatised, particularly in people who are disadvantaged within society. This may prevent them from seeking help and could lead to widening health inequalities. This coproduced study with a Community Advisory Board (CAB) of people with Long Covid aimed to understand healthcare and wider barriers and stigma experienced by people with probable Long Covid. METHODS: An active case finding approach was employed to find adults with probable, but not yet clinically diagnosed, Long Covid in two localities in London (Camden and Merton) and Derbyshire, England. Interviews explored the barriers to care and the stigma faced by participants and were analysed thematically. This study forms part of the STIMULATE-ICP Collaboration. FINDINGS: Twenty-three interviews were completed. Participants reported limited awareness of what Long Covid is and the available pathways to management. There was considerable self-doubt among participants, sometimes reinforced by interactions with healthcare professionals (HCPs). Participants questioned their deservedness in seeking healthcare support for their symptoms. Hesitancy to engage with healthcare services was motivated by fear of needing more investigation and concerns regarding judgement about the ability to carry out caregiving responsibilities. It was also motivated by the complexity of the clinical presentation and fear of all symptoms being attributed to poor mental health. Participants also reported trying to avoid overburdening the health system. These difficulties were compounded by experiences of stigma and discrimination. The emerging themes reaffirmed a framework of epistemic injustice in relation to Long Covid, where creating, interpreting and conveying knowledge has varied credibility based on the teller's identity characteristics and/or the level of their interpretive resources. CONCLUSION: We have codeveloped recommendations based on the findings. These include early signposting to services, dedicating protected time to listening to people with Long Covid, providing a holistic approach in care pathways, and working to mitigate stigma. Regardless of the diagnosis, people experiencing new symptoms must be encouraged to seek timely medical help. Clear public health messaging is needed among communities already disadvantaged by epistemic injustice to raise awareness of Long Covid, and to share stories that encourage seeking care and to illustrate the adverse effects of stigma. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: This study was coproduced with a CAB made up of 23 members including HCPs, people with lived experience of Long Covid and other stakeholders.

Primary prevention of acute cardiovascular events by influenza vaccination: an observational study.

AIMS: Previous studies show a reduced incidence of first myocardial infarction and stroke 1-3 months after influenza vaccination, but it is unclear how underlying cardiovascular risk impacts the association. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care and Office for National Statistics mortality data from England between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2019. From the data, individuals aged 40-84 years with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccination occurring within 12 months of each September were selected. Using a self-controlled case series analysis, season-adjusted cardiovascular risk stratified incidence ratios (IRs) for cardiovascular events after vaccination compared with baseline time before and >120 days after vaccination were generated. 193 900 individuals with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccine were included. 105 539 had hypertension and 172 050 had a QRISK2 score ≥10%. In main analysis, acute cardiovascular event risk was reduced in the 15-28 days after vaccination [IR 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.74)] and, while the effect size tapered, remained reduced to 91-120 days after vaccination [0.83 (0.81-0.88)]. Reduced cardiovascular events were seen after vaccination among individuals of all age groups and with raised and low cardiovascular risk. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccine may offer cardiovascular benefit among individuals at varying cardiovascular risk. Further studies are needed to characterize the populations who could derive the most cardiovascular benefits from vaccination.

The association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events by age and frailty: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antihypertensives are effective at reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease, but limited data exist quantifying their association with serious adverse events, particularly in older people with frailty. This study aimed to examine this association using nationally representative electronic health record data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was a retrospective cohort study utilising linked data from 1,256 general practices across England held within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1998 and 2018. Included patients were aged 40+ years, with a systolic blood pressure reading between 130 and 179 mm Hg, and not previously prescribed antihypertensive treatment. The main exposure was defined as a first prescription of antihypertensive treatment. The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death within 10 years from falls. Secondary outcomes were hypotension, syncope, fractures, acute kidney injury, electrolyte abnormalities, and primary care attendance with gout. The association between treatment and these serious adverse events was examined by Cox regression adjusted for propensity score. This propensity score was generated from a multivariable logistic regression model with patient characteristics, medical history and medication prescriptions as covariates, and new antihypertensive treatment as the outcome. Subgroup analyses were undertaken by age and frailty. Of 3,834,056 patients followed for a median of 7.1 years, 484,187 (12.6%) were prescribed new antihypertensive treatment in the 12 months before the index date (baseline). Antihypertensives were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation or death from falls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 1.26), hypotension (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.35), syncope (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.22), acute kidney injury (aHR 1.44, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.47), electrolyte abnormalities (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.48), and primary care attendance with gout (aHR 1.35, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.37). The absolute risk of serious adverse events with treatment was very low, with 6 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year. In older patients (80 to 89 years) and those with severe frailty, this absolute risk was increased, with 61 and 84 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year (respectively). Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using different approaches to address confounding and taking into account the competing risk of death. A strength of this analysis is that it provides evidence regarding the association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events, in a population of patients more representative than those enrolled in previous randomised controlled trials. Although treatment effect estimates fell within the 95% CIs of those from such trials, these analyses were observational in nature and so bias from unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out. CONCLUSIONS: Antihypertensive treatment was associated with serious adverse events. Overall, the absolute risk of this harm was low, with the exception of older patients and those with moderate to severe frailty, where the risks were similar to the likelihood of benefit from treatment. In these populations, physicians may want to consider alternative approaches to management of blood pressure and refrain from prescribing new treatment.

Liver disease is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes - A UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We investigated whether early signs of liver disease (measured by iron-corrected T1-mapping [cT1]) were associated with an increased risk of major CVD events. METHODS: Liver disease activity (cT1) and fat (proton density fat fraction [PDFF]) were measured using LiverMultiScan® between January 2016 and February 2020 in the UK Biobank imaging sub-study. Using multivariable Cox regression, we explored associations between liver cT1 (MRI) and primary CVD (coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation [AF], embolism/vascular events, heart failure [HF] and stroke), and CVD hospitalisation and all-cause mortality. Liver blood biomarkers, general metabolism biomarkers, and demographics were also included. Subgroup analysis was conducted in those without metabolic syndrome (defined as at least three of: a large waist, high triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, increased systolic blood pressure, or elevated haemoglobin A1c). RESULTS: A total of 33,616 participants (mean age 65 years, mean BMI 26 kg/m2, mean haemoglobin A1c 35 mmol/mol) had complete MRI liver data with linked clinical outcomes (median time to major CVD event onset: 1.4 years [range: 0.002-5.1]; follow-up: 2.5 years [range: 1.1-5.2]). Liver disease activity (cT1), but not liver fat (PDFF), was associated with higher risk of any major CVD event (hazard ratio 1.14; 95% CI 1.03-1.26; p = 0.008), AF (1.30; 1.12-1.51; p <0.001); HF (1.30; 1.09-1.56; p= 0.004); CVD hospitalisation (1.27; 1.18-1.37; p <0.001) and all-cause mortality (1.19; 1.02-1.38; p = 0.026). FIB-4 index was associated with HF (1.06; 1.01-1.10; p = 0.007). Risk of CVD hospitalisation was independently associated with cT1 in individuals without metabolic syndrome (1.26; 1.13-1.4; p <0.001). CONCLUSION: Liver disease activity, by cT1, was independently associated with a higher risk of incident CVD and all-cause mortality, independent of pre-existing metabolic syndrome, liver fibrosis or fat. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is associated with a twofold greater incidence of cardiovascular disease. Our work shows that early liver disease on iron-corrected T1 mapping was associated with a higher risk of major cardiovascular disease (14%), cardiovascular disease hospitalisation (27%) and all-cause mortality (19%). These findings highlight the prognostic relevance of a comprehensive evaluation of liver health in populations at risk of CVD and/or CLD, even in the absence of clinical manifestations or metabolic syndrome, when there is an opportunity to modify/address risk factors and prevent disease progression. As such, they are relevant to patients, carers, clinicians, and policymakers.

Evidence of population expansion and insecticide resistance mechanism in invasive fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda).

BACKGROUND: The invasive and calamitous polyphagous pest Spodoptera frugiperda or commonly known as fall armyworm (FAW) poses serious menace to the global agricultural production. Owing to the revamped invasion of FAW in 2018 in India, present study was undertaken for precise assessment of its genetic identity and pesticide resistance to aid in pest-management strategies. RESULTS: To evaluate the diversity in FAW population across Eastern India, mitochondrial COI sequences were used which revealed a low nucleotide diversity. Analysis of molecular variance indicated significant genetic variation between four global geographical FAW populations with lowest differentiation between India and Africa suggesting a present-day and shared origin of FAW. The study demonstrated existence of two different strains ('R' strain and 'C' strain) based on COI gene marker. However, discrepancies between COI marker and host plant association of FAW was observed. Characterization of Tpi gene revealed abundance of TpiCa1a followed by TpiCa2b and TpiR1a strains respectively. The FAW population showed higher susceptibility towards chlorantraniliprole and spinetoram than cypermethrin. Insecticide resistance genes depicted marked upregulation although with lot of variance. Chlorantraniliprole resistance ratio (RR) exhibited significant correlation with 1950 (Glutathione S-transferase, GST), 9131 (Cytochrome P450, CYP) and 9360 (CYP) genes, while spinetoram and cypermethrin RR was found to correlate with 1950 (GST) and 9360 (CYP) genes. CONCLUSION: This study manifests Indian subcontinent as the potential new hotspot for the growth and distribution of FAW population that can be effectively controlled using chlorantraniliprole and spinetoram. This study also adds novel significant information on FAW population across Eastern India for developing a comprehensive pest management approach for S. frugiperda.

Long COVID: mechanisms, risk factors and recovery.

NEW FINDINGS: What is the topic of this review? The emerging condition of long COVID, its epidemiology, pathophysiological impacts on patients of different backgrounds, physiological mechanisms emerging as explanations of the condition, and treatment strategies being trialled. The review leads from a Physiological Society online conference on this topic. What advances does it highlight? Progress in understanding the pathophysiology and cellular mechanisms underlying Long COVID and potential therapeutic and management strategies. ABSTRACT: Long COVID, the prolonged illness and fatigue suffered by a small proportion of those infected with SARS-CoV-2, is placing an increasing burden on individuals and society. A Physiological Society virtual meeting in February 2022 brought clinicians and researchers together to discuss the current understanding of long COVID mechanisms, risk factors and recovery. This review highlights the themes arising from that meeting. It considers the nature of long COVID, exploring its links with other post-viral illnesses such as myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome, and highlights how long COVID research can help us better support those suffering from all post-viral syndromes. Long COVID research started particularly swiftly in populations routinely monitoring their physical performance - namely the military and elite athletes. The review highlights how the high degree of diagnosis, intervention and monitoring of success in these active populations can suggest management strategies for the wider population. We then consider how a key component of performance monitoring in active populations, cardiopulmonary exercise training, has revealed long COVID-related changes in physiology - including alterations in peripheral muscle function, ventilatory inefficiency and autonomic dysfunction. The nature and impact of dysautonomia are further discussed in relation to postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, fatigue and treatment strategies that aim to combat sympathetic overactivation by stimulating the vagus nerve. We then interrogate the mechanisms that underlie long COVID symptoms, with a focus on impaired oxygen delivery due to micro-clotting and disruption of cellular energy metabolism, before considering treatment strategies that indirectly or directly tackle these mechanisms. These include remote inspiratory muscle training and integrated care pathways that combine rehabilitation and drug interventions with research into long COVID healthcare access across different populations. Overall, this review showcases how physiological research reveals the changes that occur in long COVID and how different therapeutic strategies are being developed and tested to combat this condition.

Intracoronary imaging guided percutaneous coronary intervention outcomes among individuals with cardiogenic shock.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist around the utility of intracoronary imaging (ICI) during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and cardiogenic shock (CS), who are inherently at a high risk of stent thrombosis (ST). METHODS: All PCI procedures for ACS patients with CS in England and Wales between 2014 and 2020 were retrospectively analysed, stratified into two groups: ICI and angiography-guided groups. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to examine odds ratios (OR) of in-hospital outcomes, including major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; composite of all-cause mortality, acute stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), and reinfarction) and major bleeding, in the ICI-guided group compared with angiography-guided PCI. RESULTS: Of 15,738 PCI procedures, 1240(7.9%) were ICI-guided. The rate of ICI use amongst those with CS more than doubled from 2014 (5.7%) to 2020 (13.3%). The ICI-guided group were predominantly younger, males, with a higher proportion of non-ST-elevation ACS and ST. MACCE was significantly lower in the ICI-guided group compared with the angiography-guided group (crude: 29.8% vs. 38.2%, adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.65 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.76), driven by lower all-cause mortality (28.6% vs. 37.0%, OR 0.65 95% CI 0.55-0.75). There were no differences in other secondary outcomes between groups. CONCLUSION: ICI use among CS patients has more than doubled over 6 years but remains significantly under-utilized, with less than 1-in-6 patients in receipt of ICI-guided PCI by 2020. ICI-guided PCI is associated with prognostic benefits in CS patients and should be more frequently utilized to increase their long-term survival.

Oral Class I and III antiarrhythmic drugs for maintaining sinus rhythm after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmias (ATa) following catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common problem. Antiarrhythmic drugs have been used shortly after ablation in an attempt to maintain sinus rhythm, particularly Class I and III agents. However, it still needs to be established if the use of Class I or III antiarrhythmic medications, or both, reduce the risk of recurrence of ATa. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of oral Class I and III antiarrhythmic drugs versus control (standard medical therapy without Class I or III antiarrhythmics, or placebo) for maintaining sinus rhythm in people undergoing catheter ablation for AF. SEARCH METHODS: We systematically searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, and two clinical trial registers without restrictions on language or date to 5 August 2022. SELECTION CRITERIA: We sought published, unpublished, and ongoing parallel-design, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving adult participants undergoing ablation for AF, with subsequent comparison of Class I and/or III antiarrhythmic use versus control (standard medical therapy or non-Class I and/or III antiarrhythmic use). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and performed meta-analyses with risk ratios (RR) and Peto odds ratios (Peto OR). Our primary outcomes were recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmias; adverse events: thromboembolic events; adverse events: myocardial infarction; adverse events: new diagnosis of heart failure; and adverse events: requirement for one or more hospitalisations for atrial tachyarrhythmia. Our secondary outcomes were: all-cause mortality; and requirement for one or more repeat ablations. Where possible, we performed comparison analysis by Class I and/or III antiarrhythmic and divided follow-up periods for our primary outcome. We performed comprehensive assessments of risk of bias and certainty of evidence applying the GRADE methodology. MAIN RESULTS: We included nine RCTs involving a total of 3269 participants. Participants were on average 59.3 years old; 71.0% were male; and 72.9% and 27.4% had paroxysmal and persistent AF, respectively. Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics may reduce recurrence of ATa at 0 to 3 months postablation (risk ratio (RR) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 0.94, 8 trials, 3046 participants, low-certainty evidence) and likely reduce recurrence at > 3 to 6 months, our a priori primary time point (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.93, 5 trials, 2591 participants, moderate-certainty evidence). Beyond six months the evidence is very uncertain, and the benefit of antiarrhythmics may not persist (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.55, 4 trials, 2244 participants, very low-certainty evidence). The evidence suggests that Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics may not increase the risk of thromboembolic events, myocardial infarction, all-cause mortality, or requirement for repeat ablation, at 0 to 3, > 3 to 6, and > 6 months (where data were available; low- to very low-certainty evidence). The use of Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics postablation likely reduces hospitalisations for ATa by approximately 57% at 0 to 3 months (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.64, moderate-certainty evidence). No data were available beyond three months. No data were available on new diagnoses of heart failure. Fewer data were available for Class I and III antiarrhythmics individually. Based on only one and two trials (n = 125 to 309), Class I antiarrhythmics may have little effect on recurrence of ATa at 0 to 3, > 3 to 6, and > 6 months (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.20, 2 trials, 309 participants; RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.25 to 1.19, 1 trial, 125 participants; RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.32, 1 trial, 125 participants; low-certainty evidence throughout); requirement for hospitalisation for ATa at 0 to 3 months (low-certainty evidence); or requirement for repeat ablation at 0 to 3 months (low-certainty evidence). No data were available for thromboembolic events, myocardial infarction, new diagnosis of heart failure, or all-cause mortality at any time points, or hospitalisation or repeat ablation beyond three months. Class III antiarrhythmics may have little effect on recurrence of ATa at up to 3 months and at > 3 to 6 months (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.16, 4 trials, 599 participants, low-certainty evidence; RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.09, 2 trials, 318 participants, low-certainty evidence), and beyond 6 months one trial reported a possible increase in recurrence of ATa (RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.94, 1 trial, 112 participants, low-certainty evidence). Class III antiarrhythmics likely reduce hospitalisations for ATa at 0 to 3 months (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.63, moderate-certainty evidence), and may have little effect on all-cause mortality (low- to very low-certainty evidence). The effect of Class III antiarrhythmics on thromboembolic events and requirement for repeat ablation was uncertain (very low-certainty evidence for both outcomes). No data were available for myocardial infarction or new diagnosis of heart failure at any time point, outcomes other than recurrence beyond 6 months, or for hospitalisation and repeat ablation > 3 to 6 months. We assessed the majority of included trials as at low or unclear risk of bias. One trial reported an error in the randomisation process, raising the potential risk of selection bias; most of the included trials were non-blinded; and two trials were at high risk of attrition bias. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence to suggest that the use of Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics up to 3 months after ablation is associated with a reduced recurrence of ATa 0 to 6 months after ablation, which may not persist beyond 6 months, and an immediate reduction in hospitalisation for ATa 0 to 3 months after ablation. The evidence suggests there is no difference in rates of all-cause mortality, thromboembolic events, or myocardial infarction between Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics versus control.

COVID-19 vaccination uptake amongst ethnic minority communities in England: a linked study exploring the drivers of differential vaccination rates.

BACKGROUND: Despite generally high coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates in the UK, vaccination hesitancy and lower take-up rates have been reported in certain ethnic minority communities. METHODS: We used vaccination data from the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS) linked to the 2011 Census and individual health records for subjects aged ≥40 years (n = 24 094 186). We estimated age-standardized vaccination rates, stratified by ethnic group and key sociodemographic characteristics, such as religious affiliation, deprivation, educational attainment, geography, living conditions, country of birth, language skills and health status. To understand the association of ethnicity with lower vaccination rates, we conducted a logistic regression model adjusting for differences in geographic, sociodemographic and health characteristics. ResultsAll ethnic groups had lower age-standardized rates of vaccination compared with the white British population, whose vaccination rate of at least one dose was 94% (95% CI: 94%-94%). Black communities had the lowest rates, with 75% (74-75%) of black African and 66% (66-67%) of black Caribbean individuals having received at least one dose. The drivers of these lower rates were partly explained by accounting for sociodemographic differences. However, modelled estimates showed significant differences remained for all minority ethnic groups, compared with white British individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Lower COVID-19 vaccination rates are consistently observed amongst all ethnic minorities.

The Use of Digital Health Interventions for Cardiometabolic Diseases Among South Asian and Black Minority Ethnic Groups: Realist Review.

BACKGROUND: Digital health interventions (DHIs) for the prevention and management of cardiometabolic diseases have become increasingly common. However, there is limited evidence for the suitability of these approaches in minority ethnic populations, who are at an increased risk of these diseases. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the use of DHIs for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes among minority ethnic populations in countries with a majority of White, English-speaking populations, focusing on people who identified as South Asian, Black, or African American. METHODS: A realist methodology framework was followed. A literature search was conducted to develop context-mechanism-outcome configurations, including the contexts in which DHIs work for the target minority ethnic groups, mechanisms that these contexts trigger, and resulting health outcomes. After systematic searches, a qualitative analysis of the included studies was conducted using deductive and inductive coding. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies on the uptake of DHIs for cardiovascular disease or diabetes were identified, of which 13 (87%) focused on people with an African-American background. The review found evidence supporting the use of DHIs in minority ethnic populations when specific factors are considered in implementation and design, including patients' beliefs, health needs, education and literacy levels, material circumstances, culture, social networks, and wider community and the supporting health care systems. CONCLUSIONS: Our context-mechanism-outcome configurations provide a useful guide for the future development of DHIs targeted at South Asian and Black minority ethnic populations, with specific recommendations for improving cultural competency and promoting accessibility and inclusivity of design.

Discovering Distinct Phenotypical Clusters in Heart Failure Across the Ejection Fraction Spectrum: a Systematic Review.

REVIEW PURPOSE: This systematic review aims to summarise clustering studies in heart failure (HF) and guide future clinical trial design and implementation in routine clinical practice. FINDINGS: 34 studies were identified (n = 19 in HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF)). There was significant heterogeneity invariables and techniques used. However, 149/165 described clusters could be assigned to one of nine phenotypes: 1) young, low comorbidity burden; 2) metabolic; 3) cardio-renal; 4) atrial fibrillation (AF); 5) elderly female AF; 6) hypertensive-comorbidity; 7) ischaemic-male; 8) valvular disease; and 9) devices. There was room for improvement on important methodological topics for all clustering studies such as external validation and transparency of the modelling process. The large overlap between the phenotypes of the clustering studies shows that clustering is a robust approach for discovering clinically distinct phenotypes. However, future studies should invest in a phenotype model that can be implemented in routine clinical practice and future clinical trial design. HF = heart failure, EF = ejection fraction, HFpEF = heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, HFrEF = heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, CKD = chronic kidney disease, AF = atrial fibrillation, IHD = ischaemic heart disease, CAD = coronary artery disease, ICD = implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, CRT = cardiac resynchronization therapy, NT-proBNP = N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide, BMI = Body Mass Index, COPD = Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

CODE-EHR best practice framework for the use of structured electronic healthcare records in clinical research.

Big data is central to new developments in global clinical science aiming to improve the lives of patients. Technological advances have led to the routine use of structured electronic healthcare records with the potential to address key gaps in clinical evidence. The covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the potential of big data and related analytics, but also important pitfalls. Verification, validation, and data privacy, as well as the social mandate to undertake research are key challenges. The European Society of Cardiology and the BigData@Heart consortium have brought together a range of international stakeholders, including patient representatives, clinicians, scientists, regulators, journal editors and industry. We propose the CODE-EHR Minimum Standards Framework as a means to improve the design of studies, enhance transparency and develop a roadmap towards more robust and effective utilisation of healthcare data for research purposes.

Differences in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes of Acute Myocardial Infarction for Low- and High-Income Patients in 6 Countries.

Importance: Differences in the organization and financing of health systems may produce more or less equitable outcomes for advantaged vs disadvantaged populations. We compared treatments and outcomes of older high- and low-income patients across 6 countries. Objective: To determine whether treatment patterns and outcomes for patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction differ for low- vs high-income individuals across 6 countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional cohort study of all adults aged 66 years or older hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction from 2013 through 2018 in the US, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using population-representative administrative data. Exposures: Being in the top and bottom quintile of income within and across countries. Main Outcomes and Measures: Thirty-day and 1-year mortality; secondary outcomes included rates of cardiac catheterization and revascularization, length of stay, and readmission rates. Results: We studied 289 376 patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 843 046 hospitalized with non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Adjusted 30-day mortality generally was 1 to 3 percentage points lower for high-income patients. For instance, 30-day mortality among patients admitted with STEMI in the Netherlands was 10.2% for those with high income vs 13.1% for those with low income (difference, -2.8 percentage points [95% CI, -4.1 to -1.5]). One-year mortality differences for STEMI were even larger than 30-day mortality, with the highest difference in Israel (16.2% vs 25.3%; difference, -9.1 percentage points [95% CI, -16.7 to -1.6]). In all countries, rates of cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention were higher among high- vs low-income populations, with absolute differences ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points (eg, 73.6% vs 67.4%; difference, 6.1 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 11.0] for percutaneous intervention in England for STEMI). Rates of coronary artery bypass graft surgery for patients with STEMI in low- vs high-income strata were similar but for NSTEMI were generally 1 to 2 percentage points higher among high-income patients (eg, 12.5% vs 11.0% in the US; difference, 1.5 percentage points [95% CI, 1.3 to 1.8 ]). Thirty-day readmission rates generally also were 1 to 3 percentage points lower and hospital length of stay generally was 0.2 to 0.5 days shorter for high-income patients. Conclusions and Relevance: High-income individuals had substantially better survival and were more likely to receive lifesaving revascularization and had shorter hospital lengths of stay and fewer readmissions across almost all countries. Our results suggest that income-based disparities were present even in countries with universal health insurance and robust social safety net systems.

A retrospective cohort study predicting and validating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals with chronic kidney disease.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased risk of baseline mortality and severe COVID-19, but analyses across CKD stages, and comorbidities are lacking. In prevalent and incident CKD, we investigated comorbidities, baseline risk, COVID-19 incidence, and predicted versus observed one-year excess death. In a national dataset (NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment [NHSD TRE]) for England encompassing 56 million individuals), we conducted a retrospective cohort study (March 2020 to March 2021) for prevalence of comorbidities by incident and prevalent CKD, SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality. Baseline mortality risk, incidence and outcome of infection by comorbidities, controlling for age, sex and vaccination were assessed. Observed versus predicted one-year mortality at varying population infection rates and pandemic-related relative risks using our published model in pre-pandemic CKD cohorts (NHSD TRE and Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD]) were compared. Among individuals with CKD (prevalent:1,934,585, incident:144,969), comorbidities were common (73.5% and 71.2% with one or more condition[s] in respective data sets, and 13.2% and 11.2% with three or more conditions, in prevalent and incident CKD), and associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly dialysis/transplantation (odds ratio 2.08, 95% confidence interval 2.04-2.13) and heart failure (1.73, 1.71-1.76), but not cancer (1.01, 1.01-1.04). One-year all-cause mortality varied by age, sex, multi-morbidity and CKD stage. Compared with 34,265 observed excess deaths, in the NHSD-TRE and CPRD databases respectively, we predicted 28,746 and 24,546 deaths (infection rates 10% and relative risks 3.0), and 23,754 and 20,283 deaths (observed infection rates 6.7% and relative risks 3.7). Thus, in this largest, national-level study, individuals with CKD have a high burden of comorbidities and multi-morbidity, and high risk of pre-pandemic and pandemic mortality. Hence, treatment of comorbidities, non-pharmaceutical measures, and vaccination are priorities for people with CKD and management of long-term conditions is important during and beyond the pandemic.

Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473,399 individuals.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular and renal diseases (CVRD) are major causes of mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of lifetime risk have neither considered all CVRD together nor the relative contribution of major risk factors to combined disease burden. METHODS: In a population-based cohort study using national electronic health records, we studied 473,399 individuals with T2D in England 2007-2018. Lifetime risk of individual and combined major adverse renal cardiovascular events, MARCE (including CV death and CVRD: heart failure; chronic kidney disease; myocardial infarction; stroke or peripheral artery disease), were estimated, accounting for baseline CVRD status and competing risk of death. We calculated population attributable risk for individual CVRD components. Ideal cardiovascular health was defined by blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, smoking, physical activity, diet, and body mass index (i.e. modifiable risk factors). RESULTS: In individuals with T2D, lifetime risk of MARCE was 80% in those free from CVRD and was 97%, 93%, 98%, 89% and 91% in individuals with heart failure, chronic kidney disease, myocardial infarction, stroke and peripheral arterial disease, respectively at baseline. Among CVRD-free individuals, lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease was highest (54%), followed by CV death (41%), heart failure (29%), stroke (20%), myocardial infarction (19%) and peripheral arterial disease (9%). In those with HF only, 75% of MARCE after index T2D can be attributed to HF after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities. Compared with those with > 1, < 3 and ≥3 modifiable health risk behaviours, achieving ideal cardiovascular health could reduce MARCE by approximately 41.5%, 23.6% and 17.2%, respectively, in the T2D population. CONCLUSIONS: Four out of five individuals with T2D free from CVRD, and nearly all those with history of CVRD, will develop MARCE over their lifetime. Early preventive measures in T2D patients are clinical, public health and policy priorities.

Hospitalization for Heart Failure in the United States, UK, Taiwan, and Japan: An International Comparison of Administrative Health Records on 413,385 Individual Patients.

BACKGROUND: Registries show international variations in the characteristics and outcome of patients with heart failure (HF), but national samples are rarely large, and case selection may be biased owing to enrolment in academic centers. National administrative datasets provide large samples with a low risk of bias. In this study, we compared the characteristics, health care resource use (HRU) and outcomes of patients with primary HF hospitalizations (HFH) using electronic health records (EHR) from 4 high-income countries (United States, UK, Taiwan, Japan) on 3 continents. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used electronic health record to identify unplanned HFH between 2012 and 2014. We identified 231,512, 10,991, 36,900, and 133,982 patients with a primary HFH from the United States, the UK, Taiwan, and Japan, respectively. HFH per 100,000 population was highest in the United States and lowest in Taiwan. Fewer patients in Taiwan and Japan were obese or had chronic kidney disease. The length of hospital stay was shortest in the United States (median 4 days) and longer in the UK, Taiwan, and Japan (medians of 7, 9, and 17 days, respectively). HRU during hospitalization was highest in Japan and lowest in UK. Crude and direct standardized in-hospital mortality was lowest in the United States (direct standardized rates 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.7%-1.9%) and progressively higher in Taiwan (direct standardized rates 3.9, 95% CI 3.8%-4.1%), the UK (direct standardized rates 6.4, 95% CI 6.1%-6.7%), and Japan (direct standardized rates 6.7, 95% CI 6.6%-6.8%). The 30-day all-cause (25.8%) and HF (7.2%) readmissions were highest in the United States and lowest in Japan (11.9% and 5.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Marked international variations in patient characteristics, HRU, and clinical outcomes exist; understanding them might inform health care policy and international trial design.

Significant reduction in chronic kidney disease progression with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors in adults with type 2 diabetes in a UK clinical setting: An observational outcomes study based on international guidelines for kidney disease.

AIMS: To confirm the reno-protective effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors on the onset and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in routine clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database linked to Hospital Episode Statistics. The primary outcome was risk of the composite CKD endpoint based on the recent consensus guidelines for kidney disease: >40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), kidney death or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD; a composite of kidney transplantation, maintenance of dialysis, sustained low eGFR <15 ml/min/1.73m² or diagnosis of ESKD). Secondary outcomes were components of the composite CKD endpoint, analysed separately. Patients were propensity-score-matched 1:1 for SGLT2 inhibitor versus DPP-4 inhibitor use. RESULTS: A total of 131 824 people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) were identified; 79.0% had no known history of CKD. During a median follow-up of 2.1 years, SGLT2 inhibitor initiation was associated with lower risk of progression to composite kidney endpoints than DPP-4 inhibitor initiation (7.48 vs. 11.77 events per 1000 patient-years, respectively). Compared with DPP-4 inhibitor initiation, SGLT2 inhibitor initiation was associated with reductions in the primary composite CKD endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.74), all-cause mortality (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.64-0.86) and ESKD (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.25-0.55), reduced the rate of sustained low eGFR (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.19-0.57), and reduced diagnoses of ESKD in primary care (HR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.18). Results were consistent across subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In adults with T2D, initiation of an SGLT2 inhibitor was associated with a significantly reduced risk of CKD progression and death compared with initiation of a DPP-4 inhibitor.

Cost of healthcare utilization associated with incident cardiovascular and renal disease in individuals with type 2 diabetes: A multinational, observational study across 12 countries.

AIM: To examine how the development of cardiovascular and renal disease (CVRD) translates to hospital healthcare costs in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initially free from CVRD. METHODS: Data were obtained from the digital healthcare systems of 12 nations using a prespecified protocol. A fixed country-specific index date of 1 January was chosen to secure sufficient cohort disease history and maximal follow-up, varying between each nation from 2006 to 2017. At index, all individuals were free from any diagnoses of CVRD (including heart failure [HF], chronic kidney disease [CKD], coronary ischaemic disease, stroke, myocardial infarction [MI], or peripheral artery disease [PAD]). Outcomes during follow-up were hospital visits for CKD, HF, MI, stroke, and PAD. Hospital healthcare costs obtained from six countries, representing 68% of the total study population, were cumulatively summarized for CVRD events occurring during follow-up. RESULTS: In total, 1.2 million CVRD-free individuals with T2D were identified and followed for 4.5 years (mean), that is, 4.9 million patient-years. The proportion of individuals indexed before 2010 was 18% (n = 207 137); 2010-2015, 31% (361 175); and after 2015, 52% (609 095). Overall, 184 420 (15.7%) developed CVRD, of which cardiorenal disease was most frequently the first disease to develop (59.7%), consisting of 23.0% HF and 36.7% CKD, and more common than stroke (16.9%), MI (13.7%), and PAD (9.7%). The total cumulative cost for CVRD was US$1 billion, of which 59.0% was attributed to cardiorenal disease, 3-, 5-, and 6-fold times greater than the costs for stroke, MI, and PAD, respectively. CONCLUSION: Across all nations, HF or CKD was the most frequent CVRD manifestation to develop in a low-risk population with T2D, accounting for the highest proportion of hospital healthcare costs. These novel findings highlight the importance of cardiorenal awareness when planning healthcare.