A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Involuntary displacement and self-reported health in a cross-sectional survey of people experiencing homelessness in Denver, Colorado, 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: The number of people experiencing unsheltered homelessness in the U.S. is increasing. Municipalities have responded with punitive responses such as involuntary displacement (i.e., encampment sweeps, move along orders), but little is known about the impact of involuntary displacement on health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between broadly defined experiences of involuntary displacement and self-reported health conditions among people experiencing homelessness. METHODS: We used logistic regression models to generate odds ratios using publicly available data from a cross-sectional sample of people experiencing homelessness in Denver, Colorado, during September 2018-February 2019. Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit tests were used to assess model fit. RESULTS: Among 397 people experiencing homelessness, involuntary displacement was significantly associated with self-reported infectious diseases (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.09, 95% CI 1.27, 3.41), substance and alcohol use (aOR 2.83; 95% CI 1.70, 4.73), climate-related conditions (aOR 2.27; 95% CI 1.35, 3.83), and worsening mental health (aOR 2.00; 95% CI 1.24, 3.24) after controlling for potential confounders. No statistically significant associations were identified between involuntary displacement and injuries, musculoskeletal issues, chronic conditions, and chronic mental and emotional issues. CONCLUSIONS: This research quantifies the association between involuntary displacement and multiple infectious and non-infectious health outcomes. While city officials attempt to grapple with increasing unsheltered homelessness, it is important to understand what harms are occurring that are associated with current policies. Our research adds to the growing body of literature that involuntary displacement is a harmful response to unsheltered homelessness. Alternative approaches focused on connections to housing and social services should be prioritized.

Massachusetts Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder Estimation Revisited: Comparing a Bayesian Approach to Standard Capture-Recapture Methods.

BACKGROUND: The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) estimated the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) among the civilian, noninstitutionalized people aged 12 years or older in Massachusetts as 1.2% between 2015 and 2017. Accurate estimation of the prevalence of OUD is critical to the success of treatment and resource planning. Various indirect estimation approaches have been used but are subject to data availability and infrastructure-related issues. METHODS: We used 2015 data from the Massachusetts Public Health Data Warehouse (PHD) to compare the results of two approaches to estimating OUD prevalence in the Massachusetts population. First, we used a seven-dataset capture-recapture analysis under log-linear model parameterization, controlling for the source dependence and effects of age, sex, and county through stratification. Second, we applied a benchmark-multiplier method in a Bayesian framework by linking health care claims data to death certificate data assuming an extrapolation of death rates from observed untreated OUD to unobserved OUD. RESULTS: Our estimates for OUD prevalence among Massachusetts residents (aged 18-64 years) were 4.62% (95% CI = 4.59%, 4.64%) in the capture-recapture approach and 4.29% (95% CrI = 3.49%, 5.32%) in the Bayesian model. Both estimates were approximately four times higher than NSDUH estimates. CONCLUSION: The synthesis of our findings suggests that the disease surveillance system misses a large portion of the population with OUD. Our study also suggests that concurrent use of multiple methods improves the justification and facilitates the triangulation and interpretation of the resulting estimates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04111939.

Initiation of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among youth in the United States, 2015-2018.

Adolescents and young adults ("youth") account for one-fifth of new HIV diagnoses in the U.S. HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), which became FDA approved in adolescents in May 2018, is highly effective at preventing HIV infection though there are limited data for PrEP initiation in youth. We aimed to quantify PrEP initiation and identify factors associated with PrEP initiation among youth at risk for HIV. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of youth aged 13-26 years who had an indication for PrEP between 1 January 2015, and 31 December 2018. We used data on commercially insured US individuals from the IBM MarketScan Commercial Database. We compared factors among youth who did and did not receive PrEP. We developed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify the association of all study covariates with receipt of PrEP. Among potentially PrEP eligible youth, only 2171 (1.6%) received a PrEP prescription in the year following their PrEP eligible claim. In multivariable models, youth who received PrEP were more likely to be older (adjusted odd ratio [aOR] for 18-20 year olds = 5.11; 95% CI = 3.35-7.77; aOR for 21-26 year olds = 16.90; 95% CI = 11.0-24.7), male (aOR = 92.42; 95% CI = 68.24-125), have sexual activity with elevated risk (aOR = 7.47; 95% CI = 6.50-8.60), or be diagnosed with gonorrhea or syphilis than youth who did not receive PrEP. Our findings highlight an opportunity to improve HIV prevention early in the life course.

Population-Level Health Effects of Involuntary Displacement of People Experiencing Unsheltered Homelessness Who Inject Drugs in US Cities.

Importance: At least 500 000 people in the US experience homelessness nightly. More than 30% of people experiencing homelessness also have a substance use disorder. Involuntary displacement is a common practice in responding to unsheltered people experiencing homelessness. Understanding the health implications of displacement (eg, "sweeps," "clearings," "cleanups") is important, especially as they relate to key substance use disorder outcomes. Objective: To estimate the long-term health effects of involuntary displacement of people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in 23 US cities. Design, Setting, and Participants: A closed cohort microsimulation model that simulates the natural history of injection drug use and health outcomes among people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in 23 US cities. The model was populated with city-level data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance system and published data to make representative cohorts of people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in those cities. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected outcomes included overdose mortality, serious injection-related infections and mortality related to serious injection-related infections, hospitalizations, initiations of medications for opioid use disorder, and life-years lived over a 10-year period for 2 scenarios: "no displacement" and "continual involuntary displacement." The population-attributable fraction of continual displacement to mortality was estimated among this population. Results: Models estimated between 974 and 2175 additional overdose deaths per 10 000 people experiencing homelessness at 10 years in scenarios in which people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs were continually involuntarily displaced compared with no displacement. Between 611 and 1360 additional people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs per 10 000 people were estimated to be hospitalized with continual involuntary displacement, and there will be an estimated 3140 to 8812 fewer initiations of medications for opioid use disorder per 10 000 people. Continual involuntary displacement may contribute to between 15.6% and 24.4% of additional deaths among unsheltered people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs over a 10-year period. Conclusion and Relevance: Involuntary displacement of people experiencing homelessness may substantially increase drug-related morbidity and mortality. These findings have implications for the practice of involuntary displacement, as well as policies such as access to housing and supportive services, that could mitigate these harms.

Projected Long-Term Impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Hepatitis C Outcomes in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted access to and uptake of hepatitis C virus (HCV) care services in the United States. It is unknown how substantially the pandemic will impact long-term HCV-related outcomes. METHODS: We used a microsimulation to estimate the 10-year impact of COVID-19 disruptions in healthcare delivery on HCV outcomes including identified infections, linkage to care, treatment initiation and completion, cirrhosis, and liver-related death. We modeled hypothetical scenarios consisting of an 18-month pandemic-related disruption in HCV care starting in March 2020 followed by varying returns to pre-pandemic rates of screening, linkage, and treatment through March 2030 and compared them to a counterfactual scenario in which there was no COVID-19 pandemic or disruptions in care. We also performed alternate scenario analyses in which the pandemic disruption lasted for 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: Compared to the "no pandemic" scenario, in the scenario in which there is no return to pre-pandemic levels of HCV care delivery, we estimate 1060 fewer identified cases, 21 additional cases of cirrhosis, and 16 additional liver-related deaths per 100 000 people. Only 3% of identified cases initiate treatment and <1% achieve sustained virologic response (SVR). Compared to "no pandemic," the best-case scenario in which an 18-month care disruption is followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels, we estimated a smaller proportion of infections identified and achieving SVR. CONCLUSIONS: A recommitment to the HCV epidemic in the United States that involves additional resources coupled with aggressive efforts to screen, link, and treat people with HCV is needed to overcome the COVID-19-related disruptions.

Opioid Use Disorder Among Ohio's Medicaid Population: Prevalence Estimates From 19 Counties Using a Multiplier Method.

The decades-long overdose epidemic in the United States is driven by opioid misuse. Overdoses commonly, although not exclusively, occur in individuals with opioid use disorder (OUD). To allocate adequate resources and develop appropriately scaled public health responses, accurate estimation of the prevalence of OUD is needed. Indirect methods (e.g., a multiplier method) of estimating prevalence of problematic substance-use behavior circumvent some limitations of household surveys and use of administrative data. We used a multiplier method to estimate OUD prevalence among the adult Medicaid population (ages 18-64 years) in 19 Ohio counties that are highly affected by overdose. We used Medicaid claims data and the US National Vital Statistics System overdose death data, which were linked at the person level. A statistical model leveraged opioid-related death rate information from a group with known OUD to estimate prevalence among a group with unknown OUD status given recorded opioid-related deaths in that group. We estimated that 13.6% of the total study population had OUD in 2019. Men (16.7%) had a higher prevalence of OUD than women (11.4%), and persons aged 35-54 had the highest prevalence (16.7%). Our approach to prevalence estimation has important implications for OUD surveillance and treatment in the United States.

Behavioral Risk Factors for HIV Infection in Hospitalized Persons Who Co-use Stimulants and Opioids.

We investigated the association of 90-day opioid and stimulant co-use and HIV risk behaviors in a cross-sectional analysis of hospitalized HIV-negative people who inject drugs (PWID). We compared those injecting opioids alone to two sub-groups who co-used opioids with (1) cocaine, (2) amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS), on sex and injection drug risk behaviors assessed via the Risk Assessment Battery (RAB), where a higher score indicates a higher risk. Of 197 participants who injected opioids, 53% co-used cocaine only, 5% co-used ATS only, 18% co-used both cocaine and ATS, 24% co-used neither stimulant. PWID who injected opioids alone had a mean RAB drug risk score of 5.98 points and sex risk score of 2.16 points. Compared to PWID who injected opioids alone, PWID who co-used stimulants had higher mean drug risk RAB scores: cocaine, b = 2.84 points [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01; 4.67]; ATS, b = 3.43 points (95% CI 1.29; 5.57). Compared to PWID who injected opioids alone, cocaine co-use was associated with higher sex RAB scores b = 1.06 points (95% CI 0.32; 1.79). Overall, we found a significant association between stimulant co-use and higher HIV sex and drug risk scores.

RESUMEN: Investigamos la asociación entre el uso conjunto de opioides y estimulantes durante 90 días y las conductas de riesgo frente al VIH en un análisis transversal de personas hospitalizadas que se inyectan drogas y que son VIH negativas ("PWID" en lo sucesivo). Se comparó a los que consumían únicamente opioides con dos subgrupos que consumían opioides junto con (1) cocaína, (2) estimulantes de tipo anfetamínico ("ATS" en lo sucesivo), en relación con las conductas de riesgo evaluadas mediante la Serie de Pruebas de Evaluación de Riesgos ("RAB" en lo sucesivo). De los 197 participantes, el 53% sólo consumía cocaína, el 5% sólo ATS y el 18% cocaína y ATS; el 24% restante únicamente se inyectaba opiáceos. En comparación con las PWID que únicamente se inyectaban opioides, las PWID que consumían paralelamente estimulantes tenían puntuaciones medias más altas en el RAB de riesgo de drogas: cocaína, b = 2.84 puntos (intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95% 1.01; 4.67); ATS, b = 3.43 puntos (IC del 95% 1.29; 5.57). En comparación con las PWID que únicamente se inyectaban opioides, el co-consumo de cocaína se relacionó con puntuaciones más altas en la RAB en el sexo (1.06 puntos, IC del 95% 0.32; 1.79). En general, se encontró una asociación significativa entre el co-consumo de estimulantes y las puntuaciones más altas de riesgo sexual y de drogas frente al VIH.

Outcomes Associated With Medications for Opioid Use Disorder Among Persons Hospitalized for Infective Endocarditis.

BACKGROUND: Endocarditis, once predominately found in older adults, is increasingly common among younger persons who inject drugs. Untreated opioid use disorder (OUD) complicates endocarditis management. We aimed to determine if rates of overdose and rehospitalization differ between persons with OUD with endocarditis who are initiated on medications for OUD (MOUDs) within 30 days of hospital discharge and those who are not. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using a large commercial health insurance claims database of persons ≥18 years between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2016. Primary outcomes included opioid-related overdoses and 1-year all-cause rehospitalization. We calculated incidence rates for the primary outcomes and developed Cox hazards models to predict time from discharge to each primary outcome as a function of receipt of MOUDs. RESULTS: The cohort included 768 individuals (mean age 39 years, 51% male). Only 5.7% of people received MOUDs in the 30 days following hospitalization. The opioid-related overdose rate among those who did receive MOUDs in the 30 days following hospitalization was lower than among those who did not (5.8 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval [CI], 5.1-6.4] vs 7.3 per 100-person years [95% CI, 7.1-7.5], respectively). The rate of 1-year rehospitalization among those who received MOUDs was also lower than those who did not (162.0 per 100 person-years [95% CI, 157.4-166.6] vs 255.4 per 100 person-years [95% CI, 254.0-256.8], respectively). In the Cox hazards models, the receipt of MOUDs was not associated with either of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: MOUD receipt following endocarditis may improve important health-related outcomes in commercially insured persons with OUD.

Long-term Infective Endocarditis Mortality Associated With Injection Opioid Use in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The expansion of the US opioid epidemic has led to significant increases in infections, such as infective endocarditis (IE), which is tied to injection behaviors. We aimed to estimate the population-level IE mortality rate among people who inject opioids and compare the risk of IE death against the risks of death from other causes. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of injection opioid use. We defined injection behavior profiles by both injection frequency and injection techniques. We accounted for competing risks of death and populated the model with primary and published data. We modeled cohorts of 1 million individuals with different injection behavior profiles until age 60 years. We combined model-generated estimates with published data to project the total expected number of IE deaths in the United States by 2030. RESULTS: The probabilities of death from IE by age 60 years for 20-, 30-, and 40-year-old men with high-frequency use with higher infection risk techniques compared to lower risk techniques for IE were 53.8% versus 3.7%, 51.4% versus 3.1%, and 44.5% versus 2.2%, respectively. The predicted population-level attributable fraction of 10-year mortality from IE among all risk groups was 20%. We estimated that approximately 257 800 people are expected to die from IE by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The expected burden of IE among people who inject opioids in the United States is large. Adopting a harm reduction approach, including through expansion of syringe service programs, to address injection behaviors could have a major impact on decreasing the mortality rate associated with the opioid epidemic.

Healthcare Providers' Views on Hepatitis C Testing and Counseling Among Sexual Partners of Hepatitis-C-Infected Persons: An Online Survey.

BACKGROUND: Current hepatitis C virus (HCV) counseling guidelines do not recommend that HCV-infected patients notify their partners or encourage them to get tested. We aimed to assess healthcare professionals' knowledge of and attitudes toward counseling and testing recommendations for HCV-infected patients. METHODS: A 15-question, anonymous survey was designed and distributed via email to a convenience sample of healthcare professionals who work with Brown University or Boston University affiliated hospitals to assess their knowledge of and attitudes toward counseling recommendations for HCV-infected patients. The data was collected electronically and analyzed using descriptive statistical methods. RESULTS: Of the 55 respondents (a 20% response rate), 73% incorrectly believed that, at the time the survey was completed, CDC HCV testing guidelines already recommended partners of HCV-infected patients be tested for HCV infection. Furthermore, 80% of respondents believed recommendations should be revisited to explicitly include that HCV-infected patients encourage their partners to get tested. When counseling patients with HCV, 44% of respondents reported they always ask whether the patient's partners have been tested for HCV and 42% reported they sometimes do. Similarly, 42% reported they always suggest that the HCV-infected patient's partners be tested for HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Our survey shows that healthcare providers believe that HCV-counseling and testing recommendations could be revisited, with specific attention given to the promotion of HCV testing for partners of HCV-infected patients.

Federal and State Action Needed to End the Infectious Complications of Illicit Drug Use in the United States: IDSA and HIVMA's Advocacy Agenda.

In response to the opioid crisis, IDSA and HIVMA established a working group to drive an evidence- and human rights-based response to illicit drug use and associated infectious diseases. Infectious diseases and HIV physicians have an opportunity to intervene, addressing both conditions. IDSA and HIVMA have developed a policy agenda highlighting evidence-based practices that need further dissemination. This paper reviews (1) programs most relevant to infectious diseases in the 2018 SUPPORT Act; (2) opportunities offered by the "End the HIV Epidemic" initiative; and (3) policy changes necessary to affect the trajectory of the opioid epidemic and associated infections. Issues addressed include leveraging harm reduction tools and improving integrated prevention and treatment services for the infectious diseases and substance use disorder care continuum. By strengthening collaborations between infectious diseases and addiction specialists, including increasing training in substance use disorder treatment among infectious diseases and addiction specialists, we can decrease morbidity and mortality associated with these overlapping epidemics.

Infectious Complications of Addiction: A Call for a New Subspecialty Within Infectious Diseases.

Infectious diseases (ID) physicians are increasingly responsible for the management of infectious consequences of substance use disorders (SUD). While we are often consulted for diagnosis and treatment of the infectious disease, it is clear that successful management of these infections requires a holistic approach, including acknowledgement and treatment of the underlying SUD. As we have learned through years of treating human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus infections, ID physicians have unique expertise in addressing both the infection and the complex biopsychosocial factors that underpin the infection. Many ID physicians have incorporated the management of addiction as part of their scope of practice, and here we seek to give a name and define the role of these ID/addiction dual specialists. We define the potential role of ID/addiction physicians in clinical care, health administration, and research, as well as provide recommendations to bolster the supply and reach of this burgeoning subspecialty.

Population-level Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Expanding the Recommendation for Age-based Hepatitis C Testing in the United States.

Background: The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommend one-time hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing for persons born 1945-1965 and targeted testing for high-risk persons. This strategy targets HCV testing to a prevalent population at high risk for HCV morbidity and mortality, but does not include younger populations with high incidence. To address this gap and improve access to HCV testing, age-based strategies should be considered. Methods: We used a simulation of HCV to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HCV testing strategies: 1) standard of care (SOC) - recommendation for one-time testing for all persons born 1945-1965, 2) recommendation for one-time testing for adults ≥40 years (≥40 strategy), 3) ≥30 years (≥30 strategy), and 4) ≥18 years (≥18 strategy). All strategies assumed targeted testing of high-risk persons. Inputs were derived from national databases, observational cohorts and clinical trials. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life expectancy, costs, and cost-effectiveness. Results: Expanded age-based testing strategies increased US population lifetime case identification and cure rates. Greatest increases were observed in the ≥18 strategy. Compared to the SOC, this strategy resulted in an estimated 256,000 additional infected persons identified and 280,000 additional cures at the lowest cost per QALY gained (ICER = $28,000/QALY). Conclusions: In addition to risk-based testing, one-time HCV testing of persons 18 and older appears to be cost-effective, leads to improved clinical outcomes and identifies more persons with HCV than the current birth cohort recommendations. These findings could be considered for future recommendation revisions.

Estimated Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in Massachusetts, 2011-2015: A Capture-Recapture Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) in Massachusetts from 2011 to 2015. METHODS: We performed a multisample stratified capture-recapture analysis to estimate OUD prevalence in Massachusetts. Individuals identified from 6 administrative databases for 2011 to 2012 and 7 databases for 2013 to 2015 were linked at the individual level and included in the analysis. Individuals were stratified by age group, sex, and county of residence. RESULTS: The OUD prevalence in Massachusetts among people aged 11 years or older was 2.72% in 2011 and 2.87% in 2012. Between 2013 and 2015, the prevalence increased from 3.87% to 4.60%. The greatest increase in prevalence was observed among those in the youngest age group (11-25 years), a 76% increase from 2011 to 2012 and a 42% increase from 2013 to 2015. CONCLUSIONS: In Massachusetts, the OUD prevalence was 4.6% among people 11 years or older in 2015. The number of individuals with OUD is likely increasing, particularly among young people.